← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- A Pentagon Inspector General report documented 417 U.S. military personnel wounded during Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Defense One - All Content · 15 Sep 2026Iran strikes exposed gaps in medical evacuation ops across Middle East: IGAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 15 Sep 2026Dozens of aircraft, hundreds of buildings: US loss to Iran attacks revealed
- An attack hit the Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia off Musandam, leaving two sailors missing. BBC News · 15 Sep 2026Two sailors missing after tanker attacked in Strait of Hormuz, Oman says
- Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces reportedly shot down a U.S. MQ-1 drone over the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran Times · 14 Sep 2026IRGC shoots down advanced MQ-1 drone over Strait of Hormuz
- An unidentified strike targeted an Iranian cargo vessel off Qeshm Island, killing one crew member. © Asghar Besharati, AP · 13 Sep 2026Iranian cargo vessel struck near Qeshm Island as Oman delays Tehran-Gulf talks
- Saudi Arabia requested the postponement of planned regional Gulf shipping talks in Oman. Tehran Times · 14 Sep 2026Regional Hormuz talks postponed, Iran-Oman understanding finalizedNPR Topics: World · 14 Sep 2026Key leaders sound the alarm on AI. And, Iran-Gulf diplomacy hits a setback
Hormuz Maritime Safety
Iranian air defense forces reportedly downed a U.S. MQ-1 drone over the Strait of Hormuz. Unidentified strikes targeted the Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia off Musandam and an Iranian cargo vessel near Qeshm Island. U.S. officials attributed the El Gaia strike to an Iranian drone, whereas Iranian state media attributed the damage to naval mines. BBC News · 15 Sep 2026Two sailors missing after tanker attacked in Strait of Hormuz, Oman says© Asghar Besharati, AP · 13 Sep 2026Iranian cargo vessel struck near Qeshm Island as Oman delays Tehran-Gulf talksTehran Times · 14 Sep 2026IRGC shoots down advanced MQ-1 drone over Strait of Hormuz
Gulf Transit Diplomacy
Saudi Arabia requested the postponement of a planned multi-nation summit in Oman regarding Strait of Hormuz navigation. Tehran and Muscat finalized a separate bilateral agreement on waterway security. Broader diplomatic consensus among Gulf Cooperation Council states remains unachieved. Iran International · 15 Sep 2026Hormuz traffic plunges as Iran prepares China talksTehran Times · 14 Sep 2026Regional Hormuz talks postponed, Iran-Oman understanding finalizedNPR Topics: World · 14 Sep 2026Key leaders sound the alarm on AI. And, Iran-Gulf diplomacy hits a setback
Pentagon Strategic Assessment
A U.S. Department of Defense Inspector General report detailed $33.4 billion spent on Operation Epic Fury between February and June 2026. The report documented 417 U.S. military personnel wounded alongside severe inventory shortfalls in guided munitions. Iranian drone threats forced U.S. forces in Kuwait and Iraq to shift from helicopter medical evacuations to ground transport. Defense One - All Content · 15 Sep 2026Iran strikes exposed gaps in medical evacuation ops across Middle East: IG© Atta Kenare, AFP · 15 Sep 2026Middle East live: Iran rejects talks with US after 'mixed signals' from TrumpAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 15 Sep 2026Dozens of aircraft, hundreds of buildings: US loss to Iran attacks revealed
IAEA Inspection Standoff
The International Atomic Energy Agency reported zero access to Iranian nuclear sites for over six months. The U.S. Treasury Department designated Russia's VTB Bank for assisting Iranian financial evasions. Both Washington and Tehran expressed tentative openness to future negotiations. Iran International · 14 Sep 2026US, Iran hint at talks even as sanctions tighten and Hormuz tensions stay highIran International · 14 Sep 2026US sanctions Russia’s VTB Bank over Iran ties as financial crackdown widensAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 14 Sep 2026US hits major Russian bank VTB with Iran-linked sanctions
Assessment
Sustained kinetic attacks against commercial vessels and military aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz indicate that operational risks remain acute across the theater.
- 2026-09-12
Drone strike from Iraq shuts down Saudi East-West pipeline
Unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown of the crude oil conduit.
- 2026-09-10
IAEA Board of Governors reports Iran to UN Security Council for non-compliance.
The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for non-proliferation non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The action follows over a year of denied IAEA inspector access to Iranian nuclear installations.
- 2026-09-09
U.S. forces destroy five Iranian oil tankers following IRGC missile attacks on warships
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC forces launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian forces retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
4 more
- 2026-09-08
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 76.5/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 76.5/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.