← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- Israeli forces launched airstrikes across the Nabatieh district in southern Lebanon, killing one civilian and wounding six following overnight clashes. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 27 Aug 2026Israeli strike kills ‘newlywed’ woman in south Lebanon, wounds othersאבו עלי אקספרס · 27 Aug 2026Additional Israeli Air Force strikes in the past hour in Nabatieh al-Fawqa and in Barashit in southern Lebanon.
- An Israeli airstrike in Khan Yunis killed Hamas commander Ismail Mohammad Ibrahim Barim, who held three hostages according to military statements. אבו עלי אקספרס · 27 Aug 2026IDF Spokesperson: Yesterday (Wed), the IDF struck in the Khan Yunis area and eliminated the terrorist Ismail Mohammad Ibrahim Barim ☝️, a commander in the military wing of the Hamas terrorist organization.JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 27 Aug 2026IDF kills Yahya Sinwar's former bodyguard, add'l Hamas Nukhba terrorist in Gaza strike
- Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov warned the Security Council that Israeli strikes and Hamas resistance threaten the Gaza ceasefire roadmap. NPR Topics: World · 26 Aug 2026Official leading Trump's Gaza ceasefire effort criticizes Israel for its attacksBBC News · 27 Aug 2026Board of Peace's Gaza envoy criticises Israeli strikes and Hamas actions
- Lebanese Armed Forces detained a Syrian national in the Beqaa Governorate while seizing a shipment of smuggled rocket shells. JPost.com - Middle East News | The Jerusalem Post · 27 Aug 2026Syrian national arrested on border trying to smuggle rocket shells into Lebanon
- Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir ordered military troop deployments in the West Bank to double ahead of upcoming holidays. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 27 Aug 2026IDF chief doubles West Bank forces, blasts Finance Ministry amid 'politicized' budget clash
Gaza Ceasefire Roadmap
Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov informed the United Nations Security Council that Israeli strikes and Hamas weapon retention threaten the October ceasefire framework. Israeli airstrikes in Khan Yunis killed Hamas commander Ismail Mohammad Ibrahim Barim, whom the military identified as holding three hostages. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected opening additional Gaza border crossings despite diplomatic pressure from Washington. NPR Topics: World · 26 Aug 2026Official leading Trump's Gaza ceasefire effort criticizes Israel for its attacksאבו עלי אקספרס · 27 Aug 2026IDF Spokesperson: Yesterday (Wed), the IDF struck in the Khan Yunis area and eliminated the terrorist Ismail Mohammad Ibrahim Barim ☝️, a commander in the military wing of the Hamas terrorist organization.BBC News · 27 Aug 2026Board of Peace's Gaza envoy criticises Israeli strikes and Hamas actions
Southern Lebanon Border Operations
Israeli aircraft launched ten strikes across Arab Salim, Nabatieh al-Fawqa, and Barashit after Hezbollah targeted Israeli troops overnight. Artillery units shelled Rashaf in the Bint Jbeil district, destroying residential property and killing one civilian. Lebanese military personnel arrested a Syrian citizen in Aaiha after seizing rocket ammunition smuggled across the border. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 27 Aug 2026Israeli strike kills ‘newlywed’ woman in south Lebanon, wounds othersאבו עלי אקספרס · 27 Aug 2026Additional Israeli Air Force strikes in the past hour in Nabatieh al-Fawqa and in Barashit in southern Lebanon.JPost.com - Middle East News | The Jerusalem Post · 27 Aug 2026Syrian national arrested on border trying to smuggle rocket shells into Lebanon
West Bank Military Expansion
Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir ordered the expansion of active IDF forces in the West Bank to more than 22 battalions ahead of the Jewish holidays. United Kingdom Prime Minister Andy Burnham prepared sanctions banning goods originating from the E1 settlement corridor. Israeli officials threatened to expel British, Italian, and German representatives from the Kiryat Gat civil coordination headquarters in response to European settlement policy. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 27 Aug 2026IDF chief doubles West Bank forces, blasts Finance Ministry amid 'politicized' budget clashAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 27 Aug 2026Burnham’s expected UK ban on Israeli settlement goods draws broad supportאבו עלי אקספרס · 27 Aug 2026The Financial Times: Israel is considering expelling the representatives of Britain, Italy, and Germany from the Gaza Civil Coordination Headquarters in Kiryat Gat, due to their intention to impose…
Assessment
Reciprocal strikes in southern Lebanon and targeted operations in Gaza maintain critical strain on regional ceasefire mechanisms.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
4 more
- 2026-08-13
Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli drone strike targets Hamas commander in Gaza following week-long operational lull
The Israeli military launched an airstrike in northern Gaza targeting a Hamas operational commander, marking the first such strike in over a week. The action tested fragile security arrangements as international diplomatic talks regarding post-conflict monitoring continue.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli forces conduct airstrikes in southern Lebanon as Lebanese army expands operations.
The IDF carried out strikes against targets in southern Lebanon while the Lebanese Armed Forces continued operating in designated pilot zones. The strikes occurred as international discussions considered the UK and Italy to monitor Hezbollah disarmament.
- 2026-08-12
Israel conducts targeted Gaza airstrike and reported southern Lebanon strikes testing ceasefires.
Israeli forces carried out an airstrike in Gaza targeting a Hamas commander, marking the first strike in over a week. Concurrently, localized military activity and reported strikes in southern Lebanon continue to test international ceasefire arrangements.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 73/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 73/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.