← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Russian forces launched multi-wave drone and missile strikes targeting commercial and utility infrastructure across Kyiv and Boryspil district. Kyiv Post · 27 Aug 2026Russia Launches Fresh Drone Attack on Kyiv Hours After Overnight BarrageUkrinform · 27 Aug 2026Russian forces strike electronics retail chain's distribution centerUkrinform · 27 Aug 2026Aviation deployed to help deal with aftermath of Russian attack near Kyiv
- Ukrainian drones struck Ozon commercial marketplace distribution centers in Ufa and Orenburg. Kyiv Post · 27 Aug 2026Ukrainian Drones Hit Ozon Logistics Hubs in Russia as Marketplace Warehouses Come Under Sustained Attack
- Russian Army Chief Valery Gerasimov visited forward positions in eastern Ukraine, stating Russian forces advanced toward Sloviansk. Kyiv Post · 27 Aug 2026Russian Army Chief Visits Troops on Ukraine Front
- A car bomb in St. Petersburg killed a Russian army lieutenant colonel in his vehicle. Meduza.io · 27 Aug 2026Car bomb reportedly kills Russian military officer in St. Petersburg
- A Russian jet-powered drone strike on an Epicentr hypermarket in Kharkiv killed one person and injured five others. Kyiv Post · 27 Aug 2026Russian Epicentr Strike in Kharkiv Kills 1, Injures 5
Commercial and Logistics Interdiction
Ukrainian long-range drones struck Ozon marketplace distribution hubs in Ufa and Orenburg, while Russian strikes destroyed Roshen and Comfy logistics centers in Kyiv Oblast. Kyiv Post · 27 Aug 2026Ukrainian Drones Hit Ozon Logistics Hubs in Russia as Marketplace Warehouses Come Under Sustained AttackUkrinform · 27 Aug 2026Russian forces strike electronics retail chain's distribution center
Frontline Operations and Ground Offensive
Russian forces maintained ground pressure in eastern Ukraine, with Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claiming troops reached within four kilometers of Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast. Kyiv Post · 27 Aug 2026Russian Army Chief Visits Troops on Ukraine Front
Urban Bombardment and Civilian Harm
Russian aerial bombardment inflicted civilian casualties and damaged infrastructure across Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Ukrinform · 27 Aug 2026One killed, two injured as Russian drone hits Kharkiv shopping mallKyiv Post · 27 Aug 2026Russia Launches Fresh Drone Attack on Kyiv Hours After Overnight BarrageKyiv Post · 26 Aug 20264-Year-Old Girl and Woman Killed as Russian Drones Strike Chernihiv
Diplomatic Stagnation and Escalation Risks
Stalled peace negotiations and Russian warnings over Western long-range missile production support accompanied reports that Moscow may intensify ballistic strikes. Meduza.io · 27 Aug 2026Kremlin says Russia doesn’t need military escalation because its army is ‘advancing anyway’World news | The Guardian · 27 Aug 2026Russia says UK ‘playing with fire’ amid reports CIA chief has warned Kremlin not to attack NatoMeduza.io · 26 Aug 2026Kremlin sources tell Bloomberg that Putin is preparing to escalate the war in Ukraine. A growing number of Russian officials believe that could eventually mean a tactical nuclear weapon.
Assessment
High-intensity interstate war continues through heavy Russian bombardment of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and incremental Donetsk advances alongside targeted Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian logistics.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 94/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 94/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.