← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Yemen War & Houthi Attacks
Saudi – Houthis conflict
- Houthi forces launched ballistic missiles targeting Mokha Port on Yemen's Red Sea coast. Yemen Online · 26 Aug 2026[Yemen’s Gov’t Forces Report Houthi Ballistic Missile Attack on Mokha Port
- The Yemeni Navy intercepted five Houthi speedboats attempting to approach strategic islands near Red Sea shipping lanes. Yemen Online · 27 Aug 2026[Yemeni Navy Foils Houthi Attack in the Red Sea
- Yemeni naval forces downed a Houthi reconnaissance drone operating over the Red Sea. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 27 Aug 2026Yemeni naval forces seize alleged 'Iran-supplied' military equipment in Red SeaAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 27 Aug 2026Houthi missiles fired at islands, village in western Yemen, pro-gov't sources say
- Yemeni government troops repelled a Houthi assault on the Kallabah front in Taiz governorate, killing eight attackers. Yemen Online · 26 Aug 2026[Yemen : Gov’t Forces Repel Houthi Attack in Taiz, Killing 8
- The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs documented over 60 civilian casualties from recent Houthi attacks in Marib and Taiz. Yemen Online · 27 Aug 2026[UN Report: Over 60 Civilian Casualties in Houthi Attacks on Yemen
Red Sea Maritime Security
Yemeni naval forces foiled a Houthi maritime operation involving five speedboats directed toward strategic islands along Red Sea shipping corridors. Patrols intercepted the craft, downed an associated Houthi reconnaissance drone, and seized military material alleged to originate from Iran. Parallel Houthi ballistic missile strikes targeted infrastructure at Mokha Port, demonstrating sustained threats against coastal facilities along the Bab al-Mandeb approach. Yemen Online · 26 Aug 2026[Yemen’s Gov’t Forces Report Houthi Ballistic Missile Attack on Mokha PortYemen Online · 27 Aug 2026[Yemeni Navy Foils Houthi Attack in the Red SeaAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 27 Aug 2026Yemeni naval forces seize alleged 'Iran-supplied' military equipment in Red Sea
Western Front Operations
Ground combat intensified along key operational axes in Taiz and Hudaydah governorates as government troops repelled a Houthi offensive on the Kallabah front. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported over 60 civilian casualties from recent Houthi bombardment across Marib and Taiz, highlighting the severe human impact of heavy weapons employment near populated areas. Yemen Online · 26 Aug 2026[Yemen : Gov’t Forces Repel Houthi Attack in Taiz, Killing 8Yemen Online · 27 Aug 2026[UN Report: Over 60 Civilian Casualties in Houthi Attacks on Yemen
Sana'a Detainee Prosecutions
Houthi administrative authorities in Sana'a transferred detained aid personnel, including United Nations staff and non-governmental organization employees, to the Specialized Criminal Prosecution. Human Rights Watch confirmed the formal legal referrals, which mark a systemic escalation against international humanitarian operations in northern Yemen. Yemen Online · 26 Aug 2026[Yemen : Houthis Refer UN Staff , NGO Workers to Specialized Court in Sana’a
Assessment
Escalating maritime engagements near Red Sea transit routes combined with targeted ballistic missile strikes on port infrastructure maintain critical conflict pressure across the theater.
- 2026-08-24
Houthi ballistic missile damages commercial tanker off Yanbu
Ansar Allah fired a ballistic missile that struck a commercial tanker 63 nautical miles west of Yanbu, igniting a shipboard fire.
- 2026-08-19
Ansar Allah launches drone strikes targeting the Saudi Aramco oil refinery in Jizan.
On August 18, 2026, Houthi forces targeted Saudi Aramco's oil refinery facility in Jizan with drones. The strike represents a direct attack on Saudi energy infrastructure amid renewed cross-border hostilities.
- 2026-08-17
Ansar Allah claims missile strikes on Saudi military vessels off Mocha.
Houthi forces claimed targeting a Saudi military landing ship and four patrol craft with ballistic missiles and drones off the coast of Mocha. Yemeni army sources reported five ballistic missiles launched toward Bab al-Mandeb and Red Sea shipping lanes.
3 more
- 2026-08-15
Houthi strikes on Mokha port kill eight and shut down maritime operations
Houthi missile and drone strikes targeted Mokha port, killing eight people and forcing authorities to suspend all maritime operations.
- 2026-08-12
Houthi forces launch fatal Red Sea ship attack and sustain missile strikes on Mokha
A Houthi attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea killed six crew members, including three Pakistani nationals and one Indonesian. Concurrently, Houthi forces launched ten missiles and four drones targeting Yemen's western coast and Mokha port over four consecutive days.
- 2026-08-11
Fatal Houthi missile strike on commercial vessel near Bab el-Mandeb kills three crew members.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war in Yemen?
Not a declared war between states. The armed confrontation is between the Houthi movement and the Saudi-led coalition and the Yemeni government, and it reaches shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait. Fighting has continued through repeated truces without a settlement. Legally a non-international armed conflict — the Houthis against Yemen's government — internationalized by Saudi and Emirati involvement. The index reads 76/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Saudi and Houthis situation right now?
The index reads 76/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Saudi and Houthis risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.