← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran to discuss de-escalation. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 27 Aug 2026Is Iran war diplomacy ramping up, as Qatar, Oman, Pakistan officials visit?AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 27 Aug 2026Iran, Qatar hold Hormuz talks as US blockade chokes Iran oil importsAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 27 Aug 2026Qatar PM visits Tehran as Iran faces mounting US economic pressure
- Iranian and Omani diplomats held negotiations on an interim framework for mine clearance and a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 27 Aug 2026Iran, Qatar hold Hormuz talks as US blockade chokes Iran oil imports© Amirhosein Khorgooi, AP · 26 Aug 2026Navigation, jurisdiction, costs: Iran, Oman attempt to hammer out Hormuz deal
- U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was seriously wounded during military operations. © Atta Kenare, AFP · 26 Aug 2026Middle East live: Netanyahu says diplomatic deal not possible with Iranian 'savages'
- Iranian Army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia requested Qatari authorities clarify the fate of three missing Iranian fighter pilots. Tehran Times · 26 Aug 2026Iran seeks clear answer from Qatar on fate of three missing pilots
- Iranian General Abolfazl Shekarchi declared foreign Persian-language media outlets to be military targets for Iranian armed forces. Iran International · 27 Aug 2026Who is Abolfazl Shekarchi, the Iranian general calling journalists military targets?© Atta Kenare, AFP · 26 Aug 2026Middle East live: Netanyahu says diplomatic deal not possible with Iranian 'savages'
Hormuz Shipping Framework
Iranian and Omani negotiators advanced an interim proposal to establish a guarded transit corridor and clear sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. While Tehran and Muscat framed the corridor as a temporary measure to relieve maritime traffic, the agreement faces structural hurdles due to the ongoing U.S. naval blockade restricting Iranian oil shipments. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 27 Aug 2026War on Iran: Diplomacy intensifiesAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 27 Aug 2026Iran, Qatar hold Hormuz talks as US blockade chokes Iran oil imports© Amirhosein Khorgooi, AP · 26 Aug 2026Navigation, jurisdiction, costs: Iran, Oman attempt to hammer out Hormuz deal
Tehran Diplomatic Mission
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani arrived in Tehran for high-level meetings with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi aimed at reviving indirect U.S.-Iran negotiations. The initiative coincides with visits from Pakistani and Omani envoys seeking to prevent further military escalation while Washington maintains its stance against immediate talks. Iran International · 26 Aug 2026Regional diplomacy tests path back to Iran-US talksAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 27 Aug 2026Is Iran war diplomacy ramping up, as Qatar, Oman, Pakistan officials visit?AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 27 Aug 2026Iran, Qatar hold Hormuz talks as US blockade chokes Iran oil imports
U.S. Coercion and Internal Strain
U.S. President Donald Trump asserted Washington is in no rush to negotiate while Iranian officials acknowledged severe domestic fuel depletion and economic pressures under secondary sanctions. Concurrently, Trump publicly claimed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei suffered serious injuries during earlier military strikes, a claim Tehran has not verified. Iran International · 27 Aug 2026Trump says he is in no hurry for talks as Iran admits the strain© Atta Kenare, AFP · 26 Aug 2026Middle East live: Netanyahu says diplomatic deal not possible with Iranian 'savages'Iran International · 26 Aug 2026Iran fuel reserves may run dry within weeks, sources say
Iranian Target Expansion
Iranian Armed Forces spokesman Mohammad Akraminia and General Abolfazl Shekarchi broadened Tehran's operational targeting claims, threatening foreign Persian-language news organizations. Simultaneously, the military pressed Qatari officials for official documentation regarding three crew members missing since two Iranian Sukhoi jets were downed near a U.S. base in Qatar on March 12. Iran International · 27 Aug 2026Who is Abolfazl Shekarchi, the Iranian general calling journalists military targets?© Atta Kenare, AFP · 26 Aug 2026Middle East live: Netanyahu says diplomatic deal not possible with Iranian 'savages'Tehran Times · 26 Aug 2026Iran seeks clear answer from Qatar on fate of three missing pilots
Assessment
High-level regional mediation efforts and preliminary maritime corridor proposals indicate active hedging against total blockade, though persistent U.S. economic coercion and Iranian military posturing preserve a high risk of localized clashes.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
4 more
- 2026-08-17
U.S. and Iran fail to reach broad agreement as diplomatic deadline expires.
The June Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired on August 17 without a broad peace agreement. Direct and indirect negotiations deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz maritime blockade enforcement and ceasefire terms.
- 2026-08-14
US Navy deploys USS George Washington to the Middle East
The U.S. Navy deployed the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to relieve the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln.
- 2026-08-13
United States enforces Hormuz blockade while Tehran rejects American control claims
US CENTCOM forces redirected dozens of commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as part of active blockade measures. Iranian officials disputed assertions of complete US control while commercial maritime transit through the chokepoint dropped to multi-month lows.
- 2026-08-12
Iran reports no progress in peace talks with U.S. amid Hormuz dispute
Iran stated that no progress has been made toward reviving an interim peace agreement with the United States. Negotiations remain stalled over maritime access and naval enforcement within the Strait of Hormuz.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.