← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- Israeli forces killed senior Hamas official Hani Al-Mathloom in a Gaza City airstrike. אבו עלי אקספרס · 28 Aug 2026Gazan sources: The person killed in the strike on Al-Nafaq Street in Gaza City is Hani Al-Mathloom – a senior Hamas official.אבו עלי אקספרס · 28 Aug 2026Strike in Gaza:
- An Israeli drone strike in Jenin killed Hamas operative Qais Bitwani alongside two associates inside a vehicle. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 28 Aug 2026WATCH: IDF kills Hamas-linked former senior Jenin terror cell member in West Bank vehicle strike
- Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov warned that ceasefire violations in Gaza threaten total framework collapse. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 28 Aug 2026Board of Peace envoy Mladenov warns Gaza ceasefire risks ‘collapse’BBC News · 27 Aug 2026Board of Peace's Gaza envoy criticises Israeli strikes and Hamas actions
- Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed one woman and wounded six people. Haaretz latest headlines · 27 Aug 2026IDF strikes in Lebanon kill one, wound six, including child, woman
- Israeli officials informed United States diplomats that the Lebanese Armed Forces are failing to destroy Hezbollah infrastructure. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 28 Aug 2026Lebanese army failing to curb Hezbollah activity in south, Israeli officials tell US
Gaza Ceasefire Roadmap
Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov cautioned the Security Council that persistent Israeli airstrikes and Hamas rebuilding efforts threaten total collapse of the diplomatic framework. Israeli drone strikes targeting Gaza City and Khan Yunis killed senior Hamas operative Hani Al-Mathloom alongside multiple militants, while severe cash shortages and commercial disruption continue to impact displaced civilians. אבו עלי אקספרס · 28 Aug 2026Gazan sources: The person killed in the strike on Al-Nafaq Street in Gaza City is Hani Al-Mathloom – a senior Hamas official.JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 28 Aug 2026WATCH: IDF kills Hamas commander in Gaza who infiltrated Israel on October 7Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 28 Aug 2026Board of Peace envoy Mladenov warns Gaza ceasefire risks ‘collapse’
Southern Lebanon Border Operations
Israeli defense officials formally communicated to Washington that Lebanese Armed Forces units have failed to dismantle Hezbollah positions or act on provided coordinates under post-agreement monitoring protocols. Cross-border clashes persisted as Israeli air raids hit targets in southern Lebanon, killing one civilian, while Lebanese border security forces detained a Syrian national attempting to smuggle rocket ammunition in Aaiha. Haaretz latest headlines · 27 Aug 2026IDF strikes in Lebanon kill one, wound six, including child, womanJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 28 Aug 2026Lebanese army failing to curb Hezbollah activity in south, Israeli officials tell USJPost.com - Middle East News | The Jerusalem Post · 27 Aug 2026Syrian national arrested on border trying to smuggle rocket shells into Lebanon
West Bank Military Expansion
Israeli forces conducted an aerial strike on a vehicle in Jenin, killing former Hamas cell commander Qais Bitwani and two associates. Ground units subsequently surrounded a building in the Kharouba neighborhood during search operations, amid escalating armed encounters across the territory. אבו עלי אקספרס · 28 Aug 2026The Palestinians claim that IDF forces are preventing Palestinian medical teams from reaching the site that was attacked in Jenin.JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 28 Aug 2026WATCH: IDF kills Hamas-linked former senior Jenin terror cell member in West Bank vehicle strikeאבו עלי אקספרס · 28 Aug 2026Another unfolding incident in Jenin: IDF forces are surrounding a building in the Kharouba neighborhood of the city and are demanding that those inside the building surrender themselves.
Assessment
Escalating tactical strikes across Gaza and the West Bank alongside disputes over southern Lebanon demilitarization keep regional ceasefires vulnerable to collapse.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
4 more
- 2026-08-13
Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli drone strike targets Hamas commander in Gaza following week-long operational lull
The Israeli military launched an airstrike in northern Gaza targeting a Hamas operational commander, marking the first such strike in over a week. The action tested fragile security arrangements as international diplomatic talks regarding post-conflict monitoring continue.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli forces conduct airstrikes in southern Lebanon as Lebanese army expands operations.
The IDF carried out strikes against targets in southern Lebanon while the Lebanese Armed Forces continued operating in designated pilot zones. The strikes occurred as international discussions considered the UK and Italy to monitor Hezbollah disarmament.
- 2026-08-12
Israel conducts targeted Gaza airstrike and reported southern Lebanon strikes testing ceasefires.
Israeli forces carried out an airstrike in Gaza targeting a Hamas commander, marking the first strike in over a week. Concurrently, localized military activity and reported strikes in southern Lebanon continue to test international ceasefire arrangements.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 73/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 73/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.