← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Ukrainian forces struck command posts of Russia's 51st Combined Arms Army in occupied Donetsk using air-launched SCALP cruise missiles. Kyiv Post · 28 Aug 2026Ukraine Hits Suspected Russian Army HQ in Apparent SCALP Strike
- Ukrainian long-range drones targeted Russia's Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in Yaroslavl Region, igniting a fire at the facility. The Moscow Times - Independent News From Russia · 28 Aug 2026Ukrainian Drone Attack Kills One, Sparks Fire at Yaroslavl Oil RefineryUkrinform · 28 Aug 2026Defense Forces strike oil refinery in Yaroslavl region of Russian FederationKyiv Post · 28 Aug 2026Ukrainian Drones Set Major Russian Refinery Ablaze for 8th Time This Year
- Ukrainian SSU Alpha units struck a Russian Tu-95MS strategic bomber at Engels airbase in Saratov Oblast. Ukrinform · 28 Aug 2026SSU “Alpha” unit members strike Tu-95MS missile carrier in Engels — ZelenskyThe Moscow Times - Independent News From Russia · 28 Aug 2026Ukrainian Drone Attack Kills One, Sparks Fire at Yaroslavl Oil Refinery
- Russian drone strikes damaged 17 commercial warehouses across Kyiv Oblast during a sustained aerial barrage. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 28 Aug 2026Warehouses targeted outside Kyiv in all-day drone attack as Russian forces kill at least 10, injure 43 over past day across UkraineUkrinform · 28 Aug 2026Strikes on Kyiv region: 17 warehouses, 19 homes damaged in two days, one killed, four injuredKyiv Post · 28 Aug 2026Russian Forces Strike Nova Poshta Warehouses in Kyiv Region, Killing One and Injuring Two
- An explosive device in St. Petersburg killed Russian Major Sergei Sechkov of the 332nd Separate Guards Helicopter Regiment. Kyiv Post · 28 Aug 2026Russian Officer Killed in St. Petersburg Blast May Have Been Major in Regiment Accused of Ukraine War Crimes
Deep Interdiction Strikes
Ukrainian forces expanded deep-penetration strikes inside Russian territory. SSU Alpha forces struck a Russian Tu-95MS strategic bomber at Engels airbase in Saratov Oblast. Ukrainian long-range drones hit the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in Yaroslavl, located 700 kilometers from the border. Ukrinform · 28 Aug 2026SSU “Alpha” unit members strike Tu-95MS missile carrier in Engels — ZelenskyThe Moscow Times - Independent News From Russia · 28 Aug 2026Ukrainian Drone Attack Kills One, Sparks Fire at Yaroslavl Oil RefineryUkrinform · 28 Aug 2026Defense Forces strike oil refinery in Yaroslavl region of Russian Federation
Kyiv Warehouses and Urban Bombardment
Russian forces conducted a 33-hour aerial assault against Ukrainian logistical targets and urban centers. The Ukrainian Air Force intercepted 137 of 164 launched Shahed drones. Russian drone strikes damaged 17 commercial warehouses, including Nova Poshta facilities in Bilohorodka, in Kyiv Oblast. Russian bombardment across Kharkiv, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk regions killed 10 civilians. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 28 Aug 2026Warehouses targeted outside Kyiv in all-day drone attack as Russian forces kill at least 10, injure 43 over past day across UkraineUkrinform · 28 Aug 2026Strikes on Kyiv region: 17 warehouses, 19 homes damaged in two days, one killed, four injuredKyiv Post · 28 Aug 2026Russian Forces Strike Nova Poshta Warehouses in Kyiv Region, Killing One and Injuring Two
Donetsk Headquarters Strike
Ukrainian forces launched SCALP cruise missiles against command facilities in occupied Donetsk. The strike targeted the main and reserve command posts of Russia's 51st Combined Arms Army. Kyiv Post · 28 Aug 2026Ukraine Hits Suspected Russian Army HQ in Apparent SCALP Strike
Western Air Defense Capabilities
United States military stockpiles of Patriot air defense interceptors in Europe are critically low due to Middle East deployments. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned Britain and France against transferring long-range missile manufacturing technology to Ukraine. Meduza.io · 27 Aug 2026Associated Press: U.S. forces in Europe do not have enough Patriots to stop a sustained Russian ballistic attack, and ‘very limited’ ability to stop even a single strikeWorld news | The Guardian · 27 Aug 2026Russia says UK ‘playing with fire’ amid reports CIA chief has warned Kremlin not to attack Nato
Assessment
High-intensity interstate war continues through heavy Russian drone and missile bombardment alongside deep Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and industrial infrastructure.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 94/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 94/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.