← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- The U.S. Treasury sanctioned UAE branches of Egypt's Banque Misr over alleged financial dealings with Iran. Iran International · 28 Aug 2026US targets Egyptian bank in first strike of economic war against Iran
- Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani met Iranian officials in Tehran to discuss the Strait of Hormuz crisis. © US Navy/AFP · 27 Aug 2026Iran, Qatar hold Hormuz talks as US blockade squeezes Iran oil exportsIran International · 27 Aug 2026Three mediators in three days seek path back to Iran-US talks
- Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei threatened Iranian strikes against U.S. economic interests if the maritime blockade continues. Iran International · 27 Aug 2026Iran threatens US economic interests if maritime blockade continues
- Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad asserted Iran is maintaining crude oil deliveries outside national territorial waters despite the blockade. Tehran Times · 28 Aug 2026Iran's oil delivery to customers continues: oil minister
- An Iranian court sentenced a 27-year-old mechanic to death on charges of espionage for Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. Iran International · 28 Aug 2026Iran sentences 27-year-old mechanic to death over alleged Mossad ties
U.S. Sanctions Escalation
Washington initiated a broader enforcement campaign targeting third-country banking networks, cutting UAE branches of Egypt's Banque Misr from direct U.S. financial access while pressuring European authorities to shutter Iranian state bank branches such as Bank Melli in Germany. Iran International · 28 Aug 2026US targets Egyptian bank in first strike of economic war against IranIran International · 27 Aug 2026Tehran debates austerity as US targets sanctions lifelinesIran International · 27 Aug 2026Iran's Bank Melli remains open in Germany despite sanctions
Regional Strait Mediation
Diplomatic envoys from Qatar, Oman, and Pakistan conducted sequential visits to Tehran to establish maritime transit arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz, though contrasting positions between Washington's ongoing blockade and Tehran's economic demands prevent an immediate operational breakthrough. © US Navy/AFP · 27 Aug 2026Iran, Qatar hold Hormuz talks as US blockade squeezes Iran oil exportsIran International · 27 Aug 2026Three mediators in three days seek path back to Iran-US talksIran International · 27 Aug 2026Trump says he is in no hurry for talks as Iran admits the strain
Hormuz Infrastructure Bypass
Persian Gulf states accelerated capital allocation into overland oil pipelines, rail lines, and bypass ports to diminish commercial reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, even as energy analysts question near-term replacement feasibility. Iran International · 28 Aug 2026Persian Gulf states pour billions into routes bypassing HormuzNPR Topics: World · 28 Aug 2026U.S. says pipelines will make Strait of Hormuz be irrelevant. Energy experts disagree
Iranian Retaliatory Warnings
Senior Iranian security figures expanded operational rhetoric to encompass U.S. commercial assets and foreign Persian-language news organizations, signaling Tehran's intention to broaden asymmetric responses to sustained financial isolation. Iran International · 27 Aug 2026Who is Abolfazl Shekarchi, the Iranian general calling journalists military targets?Iran International · 27 Aug 2026Iran threatens US economic interests if maritime blockade continues
Assessment
Escalating financial coercion by Washington and reciprocal threats from Tehran preserve severe military and economic confrontation, with regional mediation offering diplomatic contact but no immediate path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
4 more
- 2026-08-17
U.S. and Iran fail to reach broad agreement as diplomatic deadline expires.
The June Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired on August 17 without a broad peace agreement. Direct and indirect negotiations deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz maritime blockade enforcement and ceasefire terms.
- 2026-08-14
US Navy deploys USS George Washington to the Middle East
The U.S. Navy deployed the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to relieve the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln.
- 2026-08-13
United States enforces Hormuz blockade while Tehran rejects American control claims
US CENTCOM forces redirected dozens of commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as part of active blockade measures. Iranian officials disputed assertions of complete US control while commercial maritime transit through the chokepoint dropped to multi-month lows.
- 2026-08-12
Iran reports no progress in peace talks with U.S. amid Hormuz dispute
Iran stated that no progress has been made toward reviving an interim peace agreement with the United States. Negotiations remain stalled over maritime access and naval enforcement within the Strait of Hormuz.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.