← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission. News - South China Morning Post · 28 Aug 2026China strips former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli of top military positions
- Japan's Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Agency contracted Terra Drone to supply Terra B1 counter-drone systems for the Maritime Self-Defense Force. News - South China Morning Post · 27 Aug 2026Japan fast-tracks anti-drone system amid China’s military build-up
- Taiwanese defense forces on the Penghu archipelago executed defensive readiness training against potential initial air and sea strikes. Latest articles - The Japan Times · 28 Aug 2026On islands key to Taiwan’s defense, troops prepare for a Chinese first strike
- Defense authorities in Taiwan, Japan, and the United States integrated typhoon and climate operational risks into readiness planning. News - South China Morning Post · 28 Aug 2026How typhoons and extreme weather could undermine Taiwan Strait combat readiness
- Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry confirmed 2025 bilateral merchandise trade with Taiwan reached S$170.3 billion. The Diplomat · 26 Aug 2026How Taiwan Became Singapore’s Largest Trading Partner
Central Military Commission Removals
China's Standing Committee of the National People's Congress formally stripped former Central Military Commission Senior Vice-Chairman General Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department Chief General Liu Zhenli of their posts following internal investigations. The removal leaves President Xi Jinping with only two remaining members on the supreme military command body amid ongoing anti-corruption enforcement within the People's Liberation Army. News - South China Morning Post · 28 Aug 2026China strips former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli of top military positions
Japanese Rapid Defense Procurement
Japan's Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Agency completed a three-month rapid procurement process to select Terra Drone's Terra B1 counter-drone system for the Maritime Self-Defense Force. Initial deliveries of the domestically built interceptor system are scheduled for September to mitigate emerging uncrewed aerial threats in maritime zones. News - South China Morning Post · 27 Aug 2026Japan fast-tracks anti-drone system amid China’s military build-up
Strategic Island Defense and Climate Planning
Taiwanese forces deployed across the 90 islands of the Penghu archipelago maintain readiness drills to defend against potential amphibious and air strikes directed at Taiwan's main island. Concurrently, defense planners in Taiwan, Japan, and the United States are incorporating severe weather contingencies into military infrastructure resilience and supply chain planning. Latest articles - The Japan Times · 28 Aug 2026On islands key to Taiwan’s defense, troops prepare for a Chinese first strikeNews - South China Morning Post · 28 Aug 2026How typhoons and extreme weather could undermine Taiwan Strait combat readiness
Semiconductor Trade Diversification
Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry reported bilateral trade with Taiwan reached S$170.3 billion in 2025, driven by global artificial intelligence demand and high-end semiconductor manufacturing. The volume established Taiwan as Singapore's largest merchandise trading partner, while the European Union continues strengthening commercial ties with Taiwan to secure microelectronics supply chains. The Diplomat · 26 Aug 2026How Taiwan Became Singapore’s Largest Trading PartnerThe Diplomat · 25 Aug 2026Taiwan: A Growing Economic Partner for the EU in Troubled Times
Assessment
High-level Chinese military restructuring, Japanese counter-drone acquisitions, and Taiwanese defensive preparation reflect sustained cross-Strait strategic friction without signs of imminent armed conflict.
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
2 more
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.