← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- Lebanese Ministry of Health reports 27 people killed in Israeli airstrikes across southern Lebanon over three days. אבו עלי אקספרס · 7 Sep 2026The Lebanese Ministry of Health: At least 27 killed and 69 wounded from the Israeli strikes in Lebanon over the past three days.BBC News · 7 Sep 2026Israeli strikes in southern Lebanese village kill nine
- Two Israeli soldiers sustained injuries during a close-quarters firefight with a Hezbollah operative near Beaufort Ridge. אבו עלי אקספרס · 7 Sep 2026IDF Spokesperson: Earlier today, two IDF soldiers were lightly wounded in a clash with a Hezbollah terrorist in a building in the Beaufort area.JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 7 Sep 2026Two IDF soldiers injured by Hezbollah terrorist in southern Lebanon, military strikes in responseNews from Israel · 7 Sep 20262 IDF soldiers injured in close-quarters combat with Hezbollah terrorist
- Israeli fighter jets struck Hezbollah command centers in Nabatieh following Hezbollah drone launches against IDF positions on Ali al-Taher ridge. אבו עלי אקספרס · 7 Sep 2026IDF Spokesperson: The IDF struck last night in the village of Rameh and in the Nabatieh area in southern Lebanon in response to the launch of two explosive drones by Hezbollah toward IDF forces operating on the Ali al-Taher ridge.JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 7 Sep 2026Two IDF soldiers injured by Hezbollah terrorist in southern Lebanon, military strikes in response
- An Israeli air strike on a vehicle in Gaza killed five Palestinians, according to Palestinian officials. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 7 Sep 2026Israeli attacks on Gaza kill five Palestinians, including two children
- Israeli soldiers killed a Palestinian suspect near Qabalan following a stabbing attack on an Israeli civilian. www.israelhayom.com · 7 Sep 2026Israeli seriously wounded in Samaria stabbing attackJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 7 Sep 2026IDF kills terrorist who wounded one in West Bank stabbing attack after hour-long manhunt
Southern Lebanon Airstrikes
Israeli forces executed targeted strikes across Nabatieh, Kfar Roummane, and Arab Salim, killing at least 27 people over three days according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. The Israeli military aimed the strikes at Hezbollah weapons storage facilities and command centers in response to two explosive drones launched toward IDF troops on Ali al-Taher ridge. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun warned that the escalation endangers the June ceasefire framework. אבו עלי אקספרס · 7 Sep 2026IDF Spokesperson: The IDF struck last night in the village of Rameh and in the Nabatieh area in southern Lebanon in response to the launch of two explosive drones by Hezbollah toward IDF forces operating on the Ali al-Taher ridge.אבו עלי אקספרס · 7 Sep 2026The Lebanese Ministry of Health: At least 27 killed and 69 wounded from the Israeli strikes in Lebanon over the past three days.BBC News · 7 Sep 2026Israeli strikes in southern Lebanese village kill nine
Beaufort Ridge Engagement
Israeli soldiers engaged in a close-quarters firefight inside a building near Beaufort Ridge, eliminating a Hezbollah operative after two soldiers suffered light injuries. The ground clash follows IDF clearing operations beneath the Ali al-Taher Ridge, where Israeli forces previously reported establishing operational control over a Hezbollah underground installation. Hezbollah maintained official silence regarding both the Beaufort engagement and recent drone launches against Israeli positions. אבו עלי אקספרס · 7 Sep 2026IDF Spokesperson: Earlier today, two IDF soldiers were lightly wounded in a clash with a Hezbollah terrorist in a building in the Beaufort area.FDD's Long War Journal · 6 Sep 2026Israel claims control of Ali al Taher after weeks of Hezbollah attacks and failed handover effortsJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 7 Sep 2026Two IDF soldiers injured by Hezbollah terrorist in southern Lebanon, military strikes in response
West Bank and Gaza Clashes
Israeli strikes in Gaza killed five Palestinians, including two children in Deir el-Balah, while the International Committee of the Red Cross facilitated the transfer of 12 Palestinian detainees at the Kerem Shalom crossing. In the West Bank, IDF troops killed a Palestinian assailant in Qabalan following a stabbing attack that wounded a farm owner near Otzarin. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed military commanders to prepare for potential high-level strikes against Palestinian Authority leadership if intelligence indicates coordinated attack plans against Israeli settlements. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 7 Sep 2026IDF kills terrorist who wounded one in West Bank stabbing attack after hour-long manhuntJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 7 Sep 2026Israel Katz threatens 'all-out war' on PA over West Bank terror threat, 'October 7-style attack'Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 7 Sep 2026Israeli attacks on Gaza kill five Palestinians, including two children
Assessment
Tactical ground engagements near Beaufort Ridge and expanding Israeli retaliatory strikes across southern Lebanon continue to erode the June cessation framework, heightening the risk of open regional combat.
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
4 more
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
- 2026-08-13
Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli drone strike targets Hamas commander in Gaza following week-long operational lull
The Israeli military launched an airstrike in northern Gaza targeting a Hamas operational commander, marking the first such strike in over a week. The action tested fragile security arrangements as international diplomatic talks regarding post-conflict monitoring continue.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 74/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 74/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.