← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- Taiwan's Information, Communications and Electronic Force Command allocated NT$95.93 million in proposed 2027 funding for a US-backed cyber threat-hunting team. News - South China Morning Post · 7 Sep 2026Taiwan sets up US-backed cyber unit to hunt hidden military threats
- A Chinese People's Liberation Army Rocket Force study modeled tactical nuclear attacks on Chinese cities, identifying Japan as a primary proliferation concern. News - South China Morning Post · 7 Sep 2026PLA Rocket Force highlights ‘major danger signal’ from Japan in nuclear terror study
- China Coast Guard vessels maintained continuous maritime patrols off Taiwan's eastern coast, averaging two cutters per month since June 2026. Latest articles - The Japan Times · 7 Sep 2026China mounts fresh campaign to encircle Taiwan with patrols
- China's Ministry of State Security released a 40-episode television series on Central China Television depicting cross-Strait counter-espionage operations targeting Taiwan. News - South China Morning Post · 7 Sep 2026Rare Beijing spy series highlights real-life intelligence drama with Taiwan
- Satellite imagery indicated expansion at China's Lop Nur flight-test facility in Xinjiang for testing next-generation stealth aircraft. News - South China Morning Post · 6 Sep 2026What China’s Lop Nur desert base expansion means for PLA stealth jets in race with US
Cyber Defense Expansion
Taiwan's Information, Communications and Electronic Force Command earmarked NT$95.93 million in its proposed 2027 budget to establish a threat-hunting unit with United States instructors. The initiative aims to detect network backdoors ahead of conflict through training modeled on U.S. Cyber Flag exercises. Simultaneously, China's Ministry of State Security oversaw the production of a 40-episode CCTV series highlighting counter-espionage operations against Taiwanese intelligence services. News - South China Morning Post · 7 Sep 2026Taiwan sets up US-backed cyber unit to hunt hidden military threatsNews - South China Morning Post · 7 Sep 2026Rare Beijing spy series highlights real-life intelligence drama with Taiwan
Strategic Aerospace Infrastructure
Satellite imagery confirmed ongoing construction to expand flight-test facilities at China's Lop Nur base in Xinjiang for sixth-generation stealth aircraft development. Separately, researchers at the PLA Rocket Force Characteristic Medical Centre published a study modeling low-yield tactical nuclear attacks on major Chinese cities, citing potential threats involving Japan. News - South China Morning Post · 6 Sep 2026What China’s Lop Nur desert base expansion means for PLA stealth jets in race with USNews - South China Morning Post · 7 Sep 2026PLA Rocket Force highlights ‘major danger signal’ from Japan in nuclear terror study
Pacific Maritime Operations
The China Coast Guard maintained a persistent maritime presence off Taiwan's eastern Pacific coastline, deploying an average of two cutters monthly since June 2026. The continuous deployments extend PRC jurisdictional enforcement maneuvers beyond the Taiwan Strait into waters east of the main island. Latest articles - The Japan Times · 7 Sep 2026China mounts fresh campaign to encircle Taiwan with patrols
Cross-Strait Military Dialogue
U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo conducted direct talks with PLA Eastern Theater Command Commander General Yang Zhibin in Victoria, Canada. The meeting reestablished flag-officer communication channels overseeing Taiwan Strait military operations to reduce miscalculation risks during air and naval encounters. Latest articles - The Japan Times · 5 Sep 2026Chinese military commander overseeing Taiwan operations meets U.S. PACOM chief
Assessment
Expanded Taiwanese cyber defenses and PRC strategic facility developments proceed alongside restored commander-level military communications between Washington and Beijing.
- 2026-09-04
Top US and Chinese theater commanders meet to restore military communications
PLA Eastern Theater Command General Yang Zhibin met U.S. Admiral Samuel Paparo in Canada to restore senior military communication channels.
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
3 more
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.