← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Ukrainian long-range drones struck oil refineries in Russia's Perm, Ryazan, and Tatarstan regions. Ukrinform · 7 Sep 2026Defense Forces strike oil refineries in three Russian regions among other targets — ZelenskyMeduza.io · 7 Sep 2026Ukrainian drones strike Russia’s Perm, killing oneThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 7 Sep 2026Ukrainian drone blitz hits 3 Russian oil refineries, Zelensky confirms
- Russian forces launched glide-bomb attacks against Kramatorsk, killing two civilians. Ukrinform · 7 Sep 2026Two killed, four injured in Russian airstrike on KramatorskThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 7 Sep 2026Russian attacks kill at least 3, injure 38 across Ukraine, day after Witkoff, Kushner visit Kyiv for renewed peace push
- Ukrainian forces struck a Russian-used railway bridge over the North Crimean Canal near Vladyslavivka. Ukrainska Pravda · 7 Sep 2026Ukrainian forces strike railway bridge over North Crimean Canal – General Staff
- Russian forces deployed Oreshnik missile units into Belarus according to Ukrainian military intelligence. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 7 Sep 2026Units of Russian missile brigade equipped with Oreshniks deployed in Belarus, Ukraine's military intelligence says
- Russian drones struck the Orlivka border crossing facility along the Danube River near Romania. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 6 Sep 2026Russia strikes Ukraine-Romania border crossing for 2nd time in week
Long-Range Target Asymmetry
Ukrainian forces executed long-range drone strikes against energy facilities funding Russia's war, hitting refineries in Perm, Ryazan, and Tatarstan alongside a drone storage site in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces directed long-range aerial attacks against civilian areas and economic infrastructure, damaging apartment buildings in Kramatorsk, a shopping center in Zaporizhzhia, and border transit facilities in Odesa Oblast. Ukrinform · 7 Sep 2026Two killed, four injured in Russian airstrike on KramatorskUkrinform · 7 Sep 2026Defense Forces strike oil refineries in three Russian regions among other targets — ZelenskyKyiv Post · 7 Sep 2026Russian Drones Strike Zaporizhzhia Mall Sparking Fires, Odesa Reports Damage
Belarusian Oreshnik Deployment
Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Russia's 101st Missile Brigade deployed units equipped with the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile system to Belarus. The movement follows earlier infrastructure preparation across Belarusian territory and positions nuclear-capable delivery systems closer to NATO's eastern border. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 7 Sep 2026Units of Russian missile brigade equipped with Oreshniks deployed in Belarus, Ukraine's military intelligence says
Danube Border Infrastructure Attacks
Russian drones struck the Orlivka border crossing on the Danube River for the second time within a week, forcing the operational suspension of the port facility connecting Ukraine to Romania. The strikes continue a deliberate targeting pattern against Ukrainian logistics nodes along international boundaries. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 6 Sep 2026Russia strikes Ukraine-Romania border crossing for 2nd time in week
Moscow Diplomatic Stance
Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed maximalist war aims during meetings with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, ruling out territorial compromises. Acting US Treasury sanctions chief Gene Lange participated in side talks with Russian officials regarding financial restrictions and settlement conditions. understandingwar.org · 6 Sep 2026Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment September 6 2026Kyiv Post · 6 Sep 2026US Sanctions Chief Joins Moscow Talks as Putin Cites War Goals
Assessment
Open interstate war remains at maximum intensity with both nations exchanging deep strikes while diplomatic contacts yield no cessation of hostilities.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 94/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 94/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.