← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that regional U.S. energy assets remain vulnerable to retaliatory strikes. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 7 Sep 2026Iran vows to respond to US strikes, says US energy companies' facilities are 'exposed'
- The IRGC Aerospace Force launched ballistic missiles targeting a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier and destroyer in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran Times · 6 Sep 2026Iran’s retaliatory fire sends US warships fleeing, exposes American vulnerabilityAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 7 Sep 2026Can Iran enforce a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz?
- Iranian defense forces shot down a U.S. military surveillance balloon over Erbil in northern Iraq. Tehran Times · 6 Sep 2026Iran’s retaliatory fire sends US warships fleeing, exposes American vulnerability
- U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that military strikes could replace diplomatic negotiations to eliminate Iranian missile production capacity. World news | The Guardian · 6 Sep 2026Energy secretary says US might not reach nuclear agreement with Iran
- The United Arab Emirates began developing alternative energy export routes to bypass disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 7 Sep 2026UAE says its energy exports will not be 'held hostage' by Iran war
Strait Escalation and Naval Operations
Iranian forces launched ballistic strikes against U.S. Navy warships escorting commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran announced plans to enforce a new maritime restricted zone in the corridor. U.S. Central Command acknowledged incoming strikes on its vessels and denied Iranian claims that an American aircraft carrier withdrew. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 7 Sep 2026Iran vows to respond to US strikes, says US energy companies' facilities are 'exposed'Tehran Times · 6 Sep 2026Iran’s retaliatory fire sends US warships fleeing, exposes American vulnerabilityAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 7 Sep 2026Can Iran enforce a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz?
Targeting Threats and Energy Risks
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that U.S. energy assets in the region are exposed to retaliatory strikes. The warning followed U.S. interdiction operations against Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf. UAE authorities began constructing alternative export routes to protect trade from shipping disruptions. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 7 Sep 2026Iran vows to respond to US strikes, says US energy companies' facilities are 'exposed'Iran International · 6 Sep 2026The gamble behind US attacks on Iran’s oil tankersAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 7 Sep 2026UAE says its energy exports will not be 'held hostage' by Iran war
Nuclear Diplomacy and Strike Options
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that Washington may not reach a nuclear agreement with Tehran, pointing to military strikes as an alternative option to eliminate Iranian missile manufacturing capacity. Iranian transport officials reported ongoing reconstruction across 27 damaged domestic airports to restore operational capability. World news | The Guardian · 6 Sep 2026Energy secretary says US might not reach nuclear agreement with IranTehran Times · 7 Sep 2026Details of reconstructing 27 airports across Iran after war outlined
International Alignment and Sanctions Pressure
Unilateral U.S. sanctions and naval blockade measures reduced Iranian oil export revenues. Canada, France, and Britain backed U.S.-led operations to clear mines and maintain navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran rejected diplomatic proposals that leave foreign trade sanctions and maritime blockades intact. Iran International · 7 Sep 2026US carried out covert four-month Hormuz mine-clearing missionAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 6 Sep 2026Iran's Hormuz leverage wanes as US economic squeeze bitesIran International · 7 Sep 2026Canada backs US-led Hormuz effort, vows further pressure on Iran
Assessment
Direct anti-ship ballistic strikes and threats to energy infrastructure reflect sustained military confrontation with low probability of near-term diplomatic compromise.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
4 more
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
- 2026-08-17
U.S. and Iran fail to reach broad agreement as diplomatic deadline expires.
The June Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired on August 17 without a broad peace agreement. Direct and indirect negotiations deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz maritime blockade enforcement and ceasefire terms.
- 2026-08-14
US Navy deploys USS George Washington to the Middle East
The U.S. Navy deployed the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to relieve the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln.
- 2026-08-13
United States enforces Hormuz blockade while Tehran rejects American control claims
US CENTCOM forces redirected dozens of commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as part of active blockade measures. Iranian officials disputed assertions of complete US control while commercial maritime transit through the chokepoint dropped to multi-month lows.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.