← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- Israeli forces conducted 33 controlled explosions in the southern Lebanese village of al-Mansouri. אבו עלי אקספרס · 9 Sep 2026Lebanese channels: This is the 33rd controlled explosion by the IDF today in the village of al-Mansouri in southern Lebanon.
- An Israeli drone strike killed one person on a motorcycle in the southern Lebanese village of Zboudine. אבו עלי אקספרס · 9 Sep 2026Southern Lebanon: One killed in a strike by an Israeli UAV on a motorcycle in the village of Zboudine.
- An Israeli airstrike killed senior Hamas military commander Farah Hamed in Gaza City. אבו עלי אקספרס · 9 Sep 2026High-profile elimination in western Gaza City
- The Lebanese Armed Forces deployed additional troops to Nabatieh to contain Israeli military operations. FDD's Long War Journal · 8 Sep 2026Lebanese Army intensifies Nabatieh deployment as report says mission excludes Hezbollah disarmament
- Israel closed the British consulate in East Jerusalem following new British trade sanctions on West Bank settlements. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 9 Sep 2026How has Israel hit back against sanctions by the UK, others?World news | The Guardian · 8 Sep 2026Israel to close British consulate in Jerusalem after sanctions announced
Southern Lebanon Escalation
Israeli forces conducted controlled demolitions in al-Mansouri and targeted strikes in Zboudine. The Lebanese Armed Forces deployed additional troops to Nabatieh to contain Israeli military activity. Lebanese officials stated the troop deployment seeks to prevent further attacks rather than disarm Hezbollah. FDD's Long War Journal · 8 Sep 2026Lebanese Army intensifies Nabatieh deployment as report says mission excludes Hezbollah disarmamentאבו עלי אקספרס · 9 Sep 2026Southern Lebanon: One killed in a strike by an Israeli UAV on a motorcycle in the village of Zboudine.אבו עלי אקספרס · 9 Sep 2026Lebanese channels: This is the 33rd controlled explosion by the IDF today in the village of al-Mansouri in southern Lebanon.
Gaza Targeted Strikes
Israeli forces conducted airstrikes targeting Hamas personnel and infrastructure across the Gaza Strip. An Israeli strike in Gaza City killed senior Hamas commander Farah Hamed, who managed West Bank operational networks. Additional Israeli strikes hit structures in Nuseirat and the Shati refugee camp following localized evacuation notices. אבו עלי אקספרס · 9 Sep 2026The moment of the strike in the Shati refugee camp in western Gaza City – after the evacuation warning.אבו עלי אקספרס · 9 Sep 2026High-profile elimination in western Gaza Cityאבו עלי אקספרס · 9 Sep 2026Nuseirat, in the center of the Gaza Strip:
Settlement Sanctions Fallout
Israel imposed retaliatory diplomatic sanctions on the United Kingdom after London banned goods from Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar ordered the closure of the British consulate in East Jerusalem and banned several British lawmakers from entering Israel. British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband confirmed that bilateral intelligence sharing between British and Israeli agencies remains operational. World news | The Guardian · 9 Sep 2026Israel sanctions will not hurt intelligence sharing between spy agencies, says MilibandAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 9 Sep 2026How has Israel hit back against sanctions by the UK, others?World news | The Guardian · 8 Sep 2026Israel to close British consulate in Jerusalem after sanctions announced
Assessment
Continued Israeli air and ground operations in southern Lebanon and Gaza, alongside retaliatory diplomatic actions against the United Kingdom, maintain critical theater tension below open interstate war.
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
4 more
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
- 2026-08-13
Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli drone strike targets Hamas commander in Gaza following week-long operational lull
The Israeli military launched an airstrike in northern Gaza targeting a Hamas operational commander, marking the first such strike in over a week. The action tested fragile security arrangements as international diplomatic talks regarding post-conflict monitoring continue.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 74/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 74/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.