← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- China's PLA 71st Group Army deployed PLZ-05 155mm self-propelled howitzers facing the Taiwan Strait during recent live-fire exercises. News - South China Morning Post · 9 Sep 2026Beijing boosts Taiwan-facing firepower with brigade-level 155mm howitzer deployment
- China Coast Guard deployed an average of two cutters monthly east of Taiwan since June to maintain jurisdictional patrols. Latest articles - The Japan Times · 7 Sep 2026China mounts fresh campaign to encircle Taiwan with patrols
- Japan acquired a former Nippon Steel site to construct a strategic defense hub for potential Taiwan Strait contingencies. China - South China Morning Post · 8 Sep 2026How Japan is digging in to deter – and withstand – a conflict over Taiwan
- Taiwan Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim announced plans at the Taipei Security Dialogue to construct a non-red drone supply chain. Taipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Taiwan developing multilayered defense
- Former U.S. defense official Jedidiah Royal criticized Taiwan's NT$240 billion drone budget as insufficient for military deterrence. Taipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Taiwan not on right drone track: ex-official
Artillery and Maritime Enforcement
China's PLA Eastern Theater Command upgraded its Taiwan-facing artillery by equipping the 71st Group Army with PLZ-05 155mm self-propelled howitzers replacing legacy 122mm systems. In parallel, China Coast Guard deployments east of Taiwan have averaged two vessels monthly since June, embedding regularized enforcement operations in waters surrounding the island. News - South China Morning Post · 9 Sep 2026Beijing boosts Taiwan-facing firepower with brigade-level 155mm howitzer deploymentLatest articles - The Japan Times · 7 Sep 2026China mounts fresh campaign to encircle Taiwan with patrols
Japanese Defense Logistics
Japan purchased a former Nippon Steel site to construct a military hub designed to sustain prolonged defense operations during potential Taiwan Strait contingencies. The infrastructure push accompanies broader efforts by Tokyo to deepen bilateral security agreements across the Indo-Pacific while managing domestic demographic and budgetary constraints. China - South China Morning Post · 8 Sep 2026How Japan is digging in to deter – and withstand – a conflict over TaiwanNews - South China Morning Post · 7 Sep 2026How Tokyo is widening regional defence ties to complicate Beijing’s Taiwan calculus
Taiwan Asymmetric Drone Procurement
At the Taipei Security Dialogue, Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim outlined initiatives for a non-red drone supply chain and multilayered air defense integration. Former U.S. defense officials warned that Taiwan's NT$240 billion drone budget remains insufficient to offset PLA force accumulation, highlighting divergence over the required pace of asymmetric fielding. Taipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Taiwan not on right drone track: ex-officialTaipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Taiwan developing multilayered defenseTaipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Taiwan’s defense efforts sending signal to US, not China, security expert says
Cyber and Information Pressure
Taiwan's military budgeted NT$95.93 million for 2027 to establish a U.S.-trained threat-hunting unit under the Information, Communications and Electronic Force Command. China's Ministry of State Security simultaneously amplified intelligence counter-measures through state television dramatisations of historical cross-Strait espionage operations. News - South China Morning Post · 7 Sep 2026Taiwan sets up US-backed cyber unit to hunt hidden military threatsNews - South China Morning Post · 7 Sep 2026Rare Beijing spy series highlights real-life intelligence drama with Taiwan
Assessment
Tactical artillery upgrades, maritime patrols, and regional defense planning reflect ongoing strategic posturing without indicating imminent armed conflict or operational escalation.
- 2026-09-04
Top US and Chinese theater commanders meet to restore military communications
PLA Eastern Theater Command General Yang Zhibin met U.S. Admiral Samuel Paparo in Canada to restore senior military communication channels.
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
3 more
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.