← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island. World news | The Guardian · 8 Sep 2026Iran claims to have seized American drone US says had ‘malfunctioned’AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 8 Sep 2026US military says it destroyed five Iranian oil carriers after attempted missile attacks
- Iranian forces launched ballistic missiles targeting a U.S. military base in Jordan. France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines · 9 Sep 2026Iran attacks US base after American strikes on tankersFrance 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines · 9 Sep 2026War in the Middle East: Iran attacks US base in Jordan, 10 US vesselsAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 8 Sep 2026Iran, US trade blows as Hormuz impasse deepens
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted commercial tankers and U.S. vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 9 Sep 2026Iran war drives oil prices to $100 per barrel as Tehran strikes shipsAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 8 Sep 2026Iran and US hit tankers in biggest wave of attacks on shipping since war began
- Iranian naval forces captured a U.S. uncrewed underwater vehicle at the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 8 Sep 2026Iran says it captured US submarine drone in Strait of HormuzAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 9 Sep 2026Did Iran capture a US submarine? What we know about the underwater drone
- A drone strike damaged the Panama-flagged tanker New Andros in Iraqi territorial waters. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 9 Sep 2026Oil tanker hit in Iraqi waters, as vessels get caught in US-Iran attacks
Maritime Strike Exchanges
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC missile attacks on a U.S. Navy warship. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated Washington will continue targeting Iranian tankers to counter attacks on American naval vessels. Brent crude oil prices breached $100 per barrel following the naval strikes. World news | The Guardian · 8 Sep 2026Iran claims to have seized American drone US says had ‘malfunctioned’AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 8 Sep 2026US military says it destroyed five Iranian oil carriers after attempted missile attacksAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 8 Sep 2026Iran and US hit tankers in biggest wave of attacks on shipping since war began
Jordan Base Missile Attack
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan to retaliate for the destroyed oil tankers. The Jordanian Armed Forces intercepted 18 Iranian missiles over kingdom territory. The strike expands direct U.S.-Iran combat operations into Jordanian airspace. France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines · 9 Sep 2026Iran attacks US base after American strikes on tankersFrance 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines · 9 Sep 2026War in the Middle East: Iran attacks US base in Jordan, 10 US vesselsAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 8 Sep 2026Iran, US trade blows as Hormuz impasse deepens
Hormuz Transit Interdictions
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy seized an Anduril Dive-LD autonomous underwater vehicle near the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials stated the submersible malfunctioned prior to capture. A drone strike damaged the Panama-flagged tanker New Andros in Iraqi territorial waters. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung discussed Strait of Hormuz navigation security with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 9 Sep 2026Iran war drives oil prices to $100 per barrel as Tehran strikes shipsAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 8 Sep 2026South Korea says Hormuz talks with France concern contribution options, not troop deploymentAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 8 Sep 2026Iran says it captured US submarine drone in Strait of Hormuz
Nuclear Infrastructure Monitoring
Satellite analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies revealed construction at a deeply buried facility near Natanz. Iranian representatives at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting denounced U.S. and Israeli strikes on safeguarded nuclear installations. Britain enacted broad sector sanctions covering Iranian energy, banking, and shipping entities. Tehran Times · 8 Sep 2026Iran warns against normalizing attacks on nuclear facilitiesIran International · 9 Sep 2026Construction surges at suspected Iran nuclear site – CSISIran International · 8 Sep 2026UK expands Iran sanctions over nuclear program and hostile activity
Assessment
Escalating U.S.-Iran missile and naval attacks across the Persian Gulf and Jordan increase immediate risks to commercial shipping and regional military infrastructure.
- 2026-09-09
U.S. forces destroy five Iranian oil tankers following IRGC missile attacks on warships
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC forces launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian forces retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-09-08
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
4 more
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
- 2026-08-17
U.S. and Iran fail to reach broad agreement as diplomatic deadline expires.
The June Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired on August 17 without a broad peace agreement. Direct and indirect negotiations deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz maritime blockade enforcement and ceasefire terms.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.