← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Ukrainian forces struck the Novorossiysk naval base, damaging the Russian missile frigate Admiral Essen. Ukrainska Pravda · 9 Sep 2026Ukraine's Defence Intelligence strikes Kalibr missile carrier Admiral Essen again: details of Novorossiysk attackMeduza.io · 9 Sep 2026Ukrainian drone attack on Russian port city kills four. Fire reported at port.
- Russian drone strikes hit the Starokozache border crossing with Moldova, killing two civilians. Ukrinform · 9 Sep 2026Border crossing with Moldova suspended after Russian drone attack, people killed and injuredMeduza.io · 9 Sep 2026Russian drone strike hits Ukrainian checkpoint on border with Moldova, killing twoKyiv Post · 9 Sep 2026Russia Strikes Border Crossing With Moldova, Killing 2 and Injuring 3
- Russian strikes hit Ukrainian passenger trains across Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, killing two civilians. Ukrainska Pravda · 9 Sep 2026Six injured in Russian drone strike on train in Kharkiv OblastUkrainska Pravda · 9 Sep 2026Two women die in hospital after Russian drone attack on train in Sumy Oblast on 8 September
- Russian drones struck residential apartment buildings in Kyiv, injuring nine civilians. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 9 Sep 2026Russia resumes drone attacks on Kyiv, injures 9, damages residential buildingsThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 9 Sep 2026Russian attacks kill at least 12, injure 72 across Ukraine as Russia continues relentless strikes on KyivMeduza.io · 9 Sep 2026Russian drones strike Kyiv, damaging 24-story apartment building and injuring five
- Ukrainian forces struck a Russian Project 12150 Mangust patrol boat in Sevastopol. Ukrinform · 9 Sep 2026Ukrainian forces strike Russian Mangust patrol boat in Sevastopol
Black Sea Naval Strikes
Ukrainian forces executed deep strikes against Russian naval assets, hitting the Project 11356 frigate Admiral Essen and fuel infrastructure at Novorossiysk. Ukrainian units also struck a Project 12150 Mangust patrol boat in Sevastopol and electronic intelligence installations in occupied Crimea. The attacks targeted warships launching Kalibr cruise missiles and logistics hubs enabling Russian maritime operations. Ukrainska Pravda · 9 Sep 2026Ukraine's Defence Intelligence strikes Kalibr missile carrier Admiral Essen again: details of Novorossiysk attackMeduza.io · 9 Sep 2026Ukrainian drone attack on Russian port city kills four. Fire reported at port.Ukrinform · 9 Sep 2026Ukrainian forces strike Russian Mangust patrol boat in Sevastopol
Border and Transit Infrastructure
Russian drones struck the Starokozache road border crossing between Ukraine and Moldova in Odesa Oblast, killing two civilians and forcing a temporary suspension of border traffic. Russian forces also launched targeted drone strikes against passenger trains in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, killing two people and damaging railway transport nodes. The strikes directed weapons against civilian transit corridors and international border infrastructure. Ukrinform · 9 Sep 2026Border crossing with Moldova suspended after Russian drone attack, people killed and injuredMeduza.io · 9 Sep 2026Russian drone strike hits Ukrainian checkpoint on border with Moldova, killing twoUkrainska Pravda · 9 Sep 2026Six injured in Russian drone strike on train in Kharkiv Oblast
Targeted Aerial Operations
Russian forces resumed high-volume drone attacks against Kyiv, damaging residential high-rise buildings in Darnytskyi and Dniprovskyi districts and injuring nine civilians. Russian air strikes hit residential neighborhoods in Kherson and Mykolaiv alongside energy maintenance vehicles in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Moscow Military District announced plans to deploy reservists equipped with high-speed interceptors to protect critical Russian facilities from Ukrainian drone strikes. Ukrainska Pravda · 9 Sep 2026Russian forces attack Kherson and outskirts: two killed, one injuredUkrinform · 9 Sep 2026One killed, four injured in Russian combined attack on MykolaivThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 9 Sep 2026Russia resumes drone attacks on Kyiv, injures 9, damages residential buildings
Assessment
Full-scale interstate warfare continues at peak intensity as Ukraine targets military bases and fleet assets while Russia directs strikes against civilian residential areas and transport infrastructure.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 94/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 94/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.