← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- Israeli fighter jets launched air strikes around Nabatieh al-Fawqa, Tibnit, and the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon. אבו עלי אקספרס · 13 Sep 2026About ten Israeli fighter jet strikes in the past hour in the Nabatieh area:
- Israeli aircraft conducted strikes across southern Lebanese locations including al-Mansouri, Zibqin, and Wadi al-Sluki. אבו עלי אקספרס · 12 Sep 20266 airstrikes by fighter jets in the past hour in southern Lebanon:
- An Israeli drone strike targeted a vehicle in Gaza City's Tel al-Hawa neighborhood, killing two Palestinians. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 13 Sep 2026Israeli attack on Gaza kills two PalestiniansJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 13 Sep 2026Two killed in Gaza City strike, IDF says it targeted car with Hamas terroristsאבו עלי אקספרס · 13 Sep 2026Strike in the Gaza Strip
- United States officials rescheduled Israel-Lebanon diplomatic talks to Washington next week, postponing Rome discussions to October. Haaretz latest headlines · 12 Sep 2026Israel-Lebanon talks in Rome reportedly postponed; Lebanese PM: no negotiations underwayJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 11 Sep 2026Upcoming Israel-Lebanon talks to take place in Washington instead of Rome, US State Department saysAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 12 Sep 2026Israel-Lebanon talks postponed as explosions rock southern Lebanon
- An Israeli soldier shot and wounded a Palestinian man during a confrontation between villagers and settlers near Faqqua. World news | The Guardian · 12 Sep 2026IDF soldier filmed shooting Palestinian in leg amid West Bank settler standoffHaaretz latest headlines · 12 Sep 2026IDF says soldier who was filmed shooting Palestinian for no reason violated rules of engagementאבו עלי אקספרס · 12 Sep 2026An IDF soldier fired at the leg of a Palestinian from the village of Faqqua near the Zeit Farm in Gilboa
Diplomatic Framework Realignment
United States officials adjusted the schedule for Israel-Lebanon negotiations, setting preliminary ambassadorial discussions in Washington for next week while postponing full-scale meetings in Rome until October. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stated in Nabatieh that formal bilateral negotiations with Israel are not currently taking place, demanding a complete Israeli military withdrawal alongside the return of displaced persons. Haaretz latest headlines · 12 Sep 2026Israel-Lebanon talks in Rome reportedly postponed; Lebanese PM: no negotiations underwayJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 11 Sep 2026Upcoming Israel-Lebanon talks to take place in Washington instead of Rome, US State Department saysAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 12 Sep 2026Israel-Lebanon talks postponed as explosions rock southern Lebanon
Southern Lebanon Air Operations
Israeli fighter jets executed multiple strikes across southern Lebanon, targeting positions near Nabatieh al-Fawqa, Tibnit, Zibqin, al-Mansouri, and the Ali al-Taher ridge. Israeli Home Front Command issued warnings to northern border communities regarding expected military aviation activity as Israeli forces targeted reported Hezbollah infrastructure and equipment. אבו עלי אקספרס · 13 Sep 2026About ten Israeli fighter jet strikes in the past hour in the Nabatieh area:JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 13 Sep 2026Two killed in Gaza City strike, IDF says it targeted car with Hamas terroristsאבו עלי אקספרס · 12 Sep 20266 airstrikes by fighter jets in the past hour in southern Lebanon:
Gaza Striking and Power Crisis
An Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle strike on a vehicle in the Tel al-Hawa neighborhood of Gaza City killed two Palestinians and injured 13, with Israeli military authorities asserting the operation targeted two Hamas operatives. Municipal services in Gaza City reported widespread blackouts as fuel shortages forced hospital generators to cease operating, driving residents to rely on private mobile generators for basic needs. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 13 Sep 2026Israeli attack on Gaza kills two PalestiniansJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 13 Sep 2026Two killed in Gaza City strike, IDF says it targeted car with Hamas terroristsאבו עלי אקספרס · 13 Sep 2026Strike in the Gaza Strip
West Bank Land Confrontations
Israeli forces intervened during a standoff between settlers and Palestinian landowners in Faqqua, where an Israeli soldier shot and wounded a Palestinian man in a move the military later identified as a breach of engagement protocols. Security officials cautioned that despite low attack numbers in the West Bank, Hamas leadership in Turkey, Qatar, and Lebanon continues attempting to orchestrate operations against Israeli personnel. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 13 Sep 2026IDF warns of rising West Bank tensions despite low terror levels, pushes for preventive operationsWorld news | The Guardian · 12 Sep 2026IDF soldier filmed shooting Palestinian in leg amid West Bank settler standoffHaaretz latest headlines · 12 Sep 2026IDF says soldier who was filmed shooting Palestinian for no reason violated rules of engagement
Assessment
Tactical airstrikes across southern Lebanon and Gaza alongside stalled high-level negotiations maintain high operational volatility without triggering a broader regional escalation.
- 2026-09-11
Israeli forces detonate 1,000 tonnes of explosives at Ali al-Taher ridge
The Israeli military detonated over 1,000 tonnes of explosives to destroy underground Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure beneath the Ali al-Taher Ridge.
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
4 more
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
- 2026-08-13
Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 74/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 74/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.