← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- An unidentified projectile struck a merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a fire and forcing the crew to evacuate. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 12 Sep 2026New attacks in Hormuz and Saudi test nerves as war's spread worsens oil disruptionAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 12 Sep 2026New report of attack on Strait of Hormuz shipping fans fears of threats to oil supplies
- An unidentified projectile hit an Iranian commercial container ship off Iran's coast, killing one crew member and injuring four others. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 12 Sep 2026New attacks in Hormuz and Saudi test nerves as war's spread worsens oil disruptionIran International · 13 Sep 2026Deadly ship strike deepens crisis over Strait of Hormuz
- Iraqi security forces closed three border crossings with Iran while investigating drone strikes against Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 12 Sep 2026Iraq probes drone strikes on Saudi Arabia, shuts three crossings to Iran
- The United States naval coordination center restricted military escort windows for commercial tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. © Planet Labs PBC / AFP · 12 Sep 2026Live: Saudi Arabia oil pipeline shut down after drone attack launched from Iraq
- Bahrain announced its refusal to attend Omani-mediated talks in Muscat regarding Strait of Hormuz maritime navigation. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 12 Sep 2026No signed Hormuz deal expected yet from Oman meeting on Monday, Iranian official saysAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 12 Sep 2026Bahrain says it will not participate in Iran’s proposed Hormuz meeting
Strait Maritime Safety
Unidentified attackers fired a projectile at a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, causing an onboard fire and forcing crew evacuation. An unidentified strike also hit an Iranian container ship off the Iranian coast, killing one crew member and wounding four. In response to rising nocturnal attacks on shipping, the United States Navy restricted its air-assisted escort windows to two daily time slots along the Omani coastline. Iranian official statements indicated that Tehran will not immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz following upcoming Omani-hosted consultations. © Planet Labs PBC / AFP · 12 Sep 2026Live: Saudi Arabia oil pipeline shut down after drone attack launched from IraqAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 12 Sep 2026New attacks in Hormuz and Saudi test nerves as war's spread worsens oil disruptionIran International · 13 Sep 2026Deadly ship strike deepens crisis over Strait of Hormuz
Saudi Pipeline Investigation
Drones launched from Iraqi territory struck Saudi Arabia's 1,200-kilometer East-West pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown of the crude export route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. United States President Donald Trump stated that Iran was likely responsible for the attack. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi ordered Iraqi security forces to close three border crossings with Iran to prevent suspects from fleeing into Iranian territory. Iraqi authorities also agreed to conduct a joint investigation with Iran into launch platforms discovered in Maysan province. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 12 Sep 2026New attacks in Hormuz and Saudi test nerves as war's spread worsens oil disruptionAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 12 Sep 2026Iraq probes drone strikes on Saudi Arabia, shuts three crossings to IranAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 12 Sep 2026Trump says Iran probably responsible for attack on Saudi pipeline
Gulf Diplomacy and BRICS
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed Al Nahyan at the BRICS summit in New Delhi. Both Iran and the United Arab Emirates endorsed a joint BRICS declaration calling for military restraint, though the summit finished without an explicit condemnation of United States military actions. Bahrain announced it will boycott scheduled Omani-mediated talks in Muscat regarding transit through the Strait of Hormuz. President Pezeshkian publicly declared that Iran is not at war with Saudi Arabia. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 13 Sep 2026The Iran war reveals the limits of BRICSAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 12 Sep 2026No signed Hormuz deal expected yet from Oman meeting on Monday, Iranian official saysAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 12 Sep 2026Iran’s Pezeshkian: ‘We are not at war with Saudi Arabia’
IAEA Safeguards Dispute
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei accused International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi of producing biased reporting on Iranian nuclear activities. Baghaei stated that ambiguous agency reports provided political justification for United States and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian infrastructure. Tehran rejected recent agency non-compliance findings as measures imposed by Washington and Israel. Tehran Times · 12 Sep 2026Iran says IAEA chief’s reports helped pave way for US-Israeli attacksTehran Times · 13 Sep 2026Iran Accuses IAEA Chief of Enabling AttacksAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 12 Sep 2026Iranian official tells Al Jazeera IAEA ruling was imposed by US and Israel
Assessment
Sustained attacks on Gulf maritime traffic and critical energy conduits maintain severe operational risks across the regional transit sector despite preliminary diplomatic contacts.
- 2026-09-12
Drone strike from Iraq shuts down Saudi East-West pipeline
Unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown of the crude oil conduit.
- 2026-09-10
IAEA Board of Governors reports Iran to UN Security Council for non-compliance.
The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for non-proliferation non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The action follows over a year of denied IAEA inspector access to Iranian nuclear installations.
- 2026-09-09
U.S. forces destroy five Iranian oil tankers following IRGC missile attacks on warships
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC forces launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian forces retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
4 more
- 2026-09-08
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.