← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Yemen War & Houthi Attacks
Saudi – Houthis conflict
- Ansar Allah launched drones and missiles targeting Saudi Arabia's Sharurah military base in southern Saudi Arabia. World news | The Guardian · 12 Sep 2026Houthis claim attack on Saudi base as fighting flares with Yemeni forcesAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 12 Sep 2026Yemen’s Houthis claim ballistic missile, drone attack on Saudi military base
- A Houthi projectile struck Al-Tuwal governorate in Saudi Arabia's Jazan region, injuring two civilians. Yemen Online · 12 Sep 2026[2 Injured, Mosque Damaged in Houthi Projectile Attack in JazanAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 13 Sep 2026Mosque and homes damaged in Saudi Arabia after alleged Houthi strike
- Yemeni government warplanes conducted over 20 airstrikes against Ansar Allah supply convoys and positions across Taiz and central Yemen. World news | The Guardian · 12 Sep 2026Houthis claim attack on Saudi base as fighting flares with Yemeni forcesAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 12 Sep 2026Yemeni army says more than 20 airstrikes hit Houthi targets in central YemenAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 12 Sep 2026Yemeni warplanes strike dozens of Houthi arms trucks in southwestern Yemen, army says
- Local authorities in Yemen's Al-Dhalea governorate declared a state of emergency following heavy frontline clashes. Yemen Online · 12 Sep 2026[Yemen : 2 Yemeni Army Officers Killed in Clashes with Houthis in Southern TaizYemen Online · 12 Sep 2026[Yemen Condemns Attack on Saudi East-West Pipeline
- Iraqi authorities closed three border crossings into Iran during an official investigation into drone launches against Saudi Arabia. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 13 Sep 2026Iraq, Iran discuss probe into drone attacks on Saudi oil pipelineAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 12 Sep 2026Iraq closes several border crossings after drone strikes on Saudi pipelineAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 12 Sep 2026Iraq probes drone strikes on Saudi Arabia, shuts three crossings to Iran
Pipeline Probe and Border Controls
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi closed three border crossings into Iran, transferred security commanders in Maysan province, and opened a joint investigation with Iranian officials regarding drone strikes targeting Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Speaking at the BRICS summit in New Delhi, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan declared that Gulf sovereignty, territorial integrity, and energy infrastructure are inviolable following the pipeline's operational shutdown. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 13 Sep 2026Iraq, Iran discuss probe into drone attacks on Saudi oil pipelineAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 12 Sep 2026Iraq closes several border crossings after drone strikes on Saudi pipelinehttps://saudigazette.com.sa · 13 Sep 2026Saudi Arabia’s security and territorial integrity are inviolable, Prince Faisal declares at BRICS Summit
Cross-Border Drone and Missile Strikes
Ansar Allah launched drones and missiles against weapons depots at Saudi Arabia's Sharurah military base in southern Saudi Arabia. In a separate strike targeting civilian areas, a Houthi projectile hit housing and a mosque in Jazan's Al-Tuwal governorate, injuring two residents. World news | The Guardian · 12 Sep 2026Houthis claim attack on Saudi base as fighting flares with Yemeni forcesAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 12 Sep 2026Yemen’s Houthis claim ballistic missile, drone attack on Saudi military baseYemen Online · 12 Sep 2026[2 Injured, Mosque Damaged in Houthi Projectile Attack in Jazan
Coastal and Central Combat Operations
Yemeni government warplanes executed over 20 airstrikes against Ansar Allah military convoys transporting missiles from Mocha toward Sana'a, alongside positions in Taiz and central Yemen. Ansar Allah ground advances along the Bab al-Mandeb corridor killed two Yemeni army officers in southern Taiz and displaced over 70,000 civilians toward Aden and Djibouti, prompting local authorities to declare a state of emergency in Al-Dhalea governorate. Yemen Online · 12 Sep 2026[Yemen : 2 Yemeni Army Officers Killed in Clashes with Houthis in Southern TaizAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 12 Sep 2026Yemeni army says more than 20 airstrikes hit Houthi targets in central YemenAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 12 Sep 2026Yemeni warplanes strike dozens of Houthi arms trucks in southwestern Yemen, army says
Assessment
Expanding cross-border Houthi attacks on Saudi military bases and border towns alongside intense air combat around strategic Red Sea chokepoints severely strain regional restraint and heighten risks of wider interstate confrontation.
- 2026-09-12
Drones launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline, forcing its operational shutdown.
Unmanned aerial vehicles originating from Iraq's Maysan province hit Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline in the Riyadh and Madinah regions, causing injuries and infrastructure damage. Saudi authorities suspended pipeline operations as a precaution while deferring military retaliation.
- 2026-09-11
Ansar Allah forces seize Mayun Island, expanding control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
Houthi fighters occupied Mayun Island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait following the retreat of government-aligned forces. The positioning provides Ansar Allah with direct physical control over the southern Red Sea shipping corridor.
- 2026-09-10
Ansar Allah forces capture the strategic Red Sea port city of Mocha.
Ansar Allah fighters seized the port city of Mocha and advanced along Yemen's western coast, driving civilian displacement toward Aden and drawing heavy Saudi-led airstrikes.
4 more
- 2026-09-08
Ansar Allah launched cross-border missile and drone strikes against Saudi energy facilities and southern cities.
Ansar Allah targeted Saudi Aramco oil installations, economic sites, and military bases across Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan, and Najran with dozens of drones and ballistic missiles. The attacks injured 73 civilians and ignited operational fires at energy sites, prompting Saudi Arabia to announce military retaliation.
- 2026-09-06
Yemeni government forces recapture Hays district from Ansar Allah
Yemeni government troops recaptured Hays district following armed clashes that killed over 60 combatants.
- 2026-09-05
Yemeni government warplanes conduct airstrikes against Ansar Allah positions in Taiz and Hodeidah.
Yemeni government aircraft executed 15 airstrikes targeting Ansar Allah troop concentrations, vehicles, and combat positions in Hays, al-Kadha, and Maqbanah. The operations mark the first deployment of government airpower since coastal fighting escalated.
- 2026-09-02
Ansar Allah establishes military cooperation pact with al-Shabaab
Reports revealed structured cooperation between Ansar Allah and Somalia's al-Shabaab militia involving drone technology transfers and fighter training across the Gulf of Aden.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war in Yemen?
Not a declared war between states. The armed confrontation is between the Houthi movement and the Saudi-led coalition and the Yemeni government, and it reaches shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait. Fighting has continued through repeated truces without a settlement. Legally a non-international armed conflict — the Houthis against Yemen's government — internationalized by Saudi and Emirati involvement. The index reads 76/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Saudi and Houthis situation right now?
The index reads 76/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Saudi and Houthis risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.