← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- The PLA 71st Group Army deployed 155mm PLZ-05 self-propelled howitzers to a Taiwan-facing heavy combined-arms brigade. News - South China Morning Post · 9 Sep 2026Beijing boosts Taiwan-facing firepower with brigade-level 155mm howitzer deployment
- Beijing lodged diplomatic protests with Italy and the European Union regarding Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim's visit to Italy. News - South China Morning Post · 11 Sep 2026Beijing lodges diplomatic protests over Taiwan official’s visit to Italy
- Unverified imagery indicated PLA Eastern Theater Command testing of a Type 19 amphibious combat vehicle equipped with a laser weapon. News - South China Morning Post · 12 Sep 2026Why PLA’s laser-equipped Type 19 vehicle could matter in a Taiwan conflict
- Japan acquired a former industrial site in Kure to build a centralized military logistics and defense manufacturing hub. China - South China Morning Post · 8 Sep 2026How Japan is digging in to deter – and withstand – a conflict over Taiwan
- Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim detailed plans for the T-Dome integrated air defense system at the Taipei Security Dialogue. Taipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Taiwan developing multilayered defense
Artillery and Counter-Drone Capability
PLA Eastern Theater Command updated its firepower posture by fielding 155mm PLZ-05 self-propelled howitzers to a heavy combined-arms brigade under the 71st Group Army, replacing older 122mm systems. Concurrently, unverified imagery of a Type 19 amphibious vehicle fitted with a turret-mounted laser weapon indicates ongoing PLA efforts to counter asymmetric drone threats during potential amphibious operations. News - South China Morning Post · 12 Sep 2026Why PLA’s laser-equipped Type 19 vehicle could matter in a Taiwan conflictNews - South China Morning Post · 9 Sep 2026Beijing boosts Taiwan-facing firepower with brigade-level 155mm howitzer deployment
Air and Drone Defense Systems
Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim detailed the proposed T-Dome integrated air defense system at the Taipei Security Dialogue to coordinate multilayered detection and interception networks. Former United States defense official Jedidiah Royal cautioned that Taiwan's NT$240 billion drone budget remains modest and slow relative to China's advancing capabilities, even as local initiatives expand uncrewed operations across civil and medical sectors. Taipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Notes from Central Taiwan: Localize Taiwan’s drone capabilitiesTaipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Taiwan not on right drone track: ex-officialTaipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Taiwan developing multilayered defense
European Diplomatic Friction
Beijing issued formal diplomatic representations to Italy and the European Union following Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim's travel to Italy to attend an international forum. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning denounced the trip as an attempt to solicit foreign support for Taiwanese independence, underscoring Beijing's ongoing campaign to enforce diplomatic isolation on Taipei's executive leadership. News - South China Morning Post · 11 Sep 2026Beijing lodges diplomatic protests over Taiwan official’s visit to Italy
Japanese Logistics Hub
Japan acquired a former industrial property in Kure, Hiroshima prefecture, to construct a consolidated hub for military logistics, maintenance, and defense manufacturing. The facility aims to bolster long-term operational sustainability near the Taiwan Strait, though Tokyo's broader military expansion faces structural constraints from labor shortages and domestic budgetary pressure. News - South China Morning Post · 9 Sep 2026Japan’s China-facing military build-up confronts labour, budget and political limitsChina - South China Morning Post · 8 Sep 2026How Japan is digging in to deter – and withstand – a conflict over Taiwan
Assessment
Incremental hardware modernizations by the People's Liberation Army and defensive infrastructure investments by Taiwan and Japan maintain high regional operational readiness without triggering active kinetic confrontation.
- 2026-09-04
Top US and Chinese theater commanders meet to restore military communications
PLA Eastern Theater Command General Yang Zhibin met U.S. Admiral Samuel Paparo in Canada to restore senior military communication channels.
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
3 more
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.