← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- IDF forces used stun grenades near Deir Mimas after taking control of an outpost established by the Lebanese Armed Forces. אבו עלי אקספרס · 18 Sep 2026Southern Lebanon: Tension between the Lebanese Army and the IDF
- French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Jordan's King Abdullah II in Paris to review Lebanese army deployment plans. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 17 Sep 2026Macron and Aoun discuss efforts to back Lebanon’s army, end Israeli attacks
- Israeli forces conducted airstrikes and controlled demolitions in al-Mansouri, southern Lebanon, while Channel 14 alleged LAF-Hezbollah coordination in pilot zones. FDD's Long War Journal · 17 Sep 2026LAF-Hezbollah coordination and the limits of Lebanon’s disarmament effortאבו עלי אקספרס · 17 Sep 2026Lebanese channels report a series of IDF strikes and controlled explosions in the village of al-Mansouri in southern Lebanon over the past two hours.
- An Israeli drone strike on Salah Khalaf Street in Gaza City killed a 15-year-old civilian, while IDF reported eliminating 29 militants over three weeks. World news | The Guardian · 18 Sep 2026First Thing: Witnesses recount Israeli ‘double-tap’ strike that killed child and medic in Gazaאבו עלי אקספרס · 18 Sep 2026The IDF spokesperson in Arabic provides a summary of eliminations in the Gaza Strip:
- IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir placed forces on heightened alert for Yom Kippur following an unannounced nationwide Home Front exercise. News from Israel · 18 Sep 2026IDF goes on heightened alert for Yom KippurNews from Israel · 17 Sep 2026Heavy military movement: IDF and Home Front Command launch surprise drill across Israel
Southern Lebanon Operations
French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and King Abdullah II of Jordan in Paris to discuss a structured framework for deploying the Lebanese Armed Forces south of the Litani River. Friction persisted along the Blue Line as Israeli forces used stun grenades to drive Lebanese soldiers from a newly established outpost near Deir Mimas. Israeli troops also executed airstrikes and controlled demolitions in al-Mansouri, while Israeli media reported allegations that Lebanese Armed Forces personnel were coordinating activities with Hezbollah inside designated disarmament pilot zones. אבו עלי אקספרס · 18 Sep 2026Southern Lebanon: Tension between the Lebanese Army and the IDFAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 17 Sep 2026Macron and Aoun discuss efforts to back Lebanon’s army, end Israeli attacksFDD's Long War Journal · 17 Sep 2026LAF-Hezbollah coordination and the limits of Lebanon’s disarmament effort
Gaza Operations
An Israeli drone strike on Salah Khalaf Street in Gaza City killed a 15-year-old civilian, an incident the Israel Defense Forces stated is under internal review. The IDF reported that airstrikes and operations over the past three weeks killed 29 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad commanders and operatives across the Gaza Strip. Unstable structures from previous military operations also collapsed in Gaza City's Sabra neighborhood following heavy rain. World news | The Guardian · 18 Sep 2026First Thing: Witnesses recount Israeli ‘double-tap’ strike that killed child and medic in Gazaאבו עלי אקספרס · 18 Sep 2026Following the rain, the home of the Washah family collapsed on its occupants this morning in the Sabra neighborhood in Gaza City.אבו עלי אקספרס · 18 Sep 2026The IDF spokesperson in Arabic provides a summary of eliminations in the Gaza Strip:
Regional Dynamics
At the United Nations Security Council, Syrian representatives condemned Israeli cross-border incursions and airstrikes, while Israeli intelligence noted efforts by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to rebuild Syrian military capacity. Satellite imagery additionally revealed renewed Iranian construction activity at the Taleghan 2 facility in Parchin following prior Israeli strikes. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 18 Sep 2026Iran reconstructing nuclear test-linked Taleghan 2 site after IDF strikes, satellite imagery showsJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 18 Sep 2026Sharaa secretly building up Syrian military, raising red flags in Israeli security communityAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 17 Sep 2026Syria warns Israel poses ‘the greatest threat’ to Middle East stability
Israeli Force Readiness
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir ordered operational reinforcements and standby orders across all fronts ahead of the Yom Kippur holiday. The readiness posture follows an unannounced nationwide Home Front Command exercise designed to test response capabilities across civilian sectors. News from Israel · 18 Sep 2026IDF goes on heightened alert for Yom KippurNews from Israel · 17 Sep 2026Heavy military movement: IDF and Home Front Command launch surprise drill across Israel
Assessment
Localized kinetic engagements in southern Lebanon and Gaza, paired with friction between Israeli and Lebanese forces along the border, maintain critical theater tension within established operational thresholds.
- 2026-09-15
Israel establishes kill zone along southern Lebanon front
The Israeli Northern Command established a kill zone separating Israeli-controlled territory from Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.
- 2026-09-11
Israeli forces detonate 1,000 tonnes of explosives at Ali al-Taher ridge
The Israeli military detonated over 1,000 tonnes of explosives to destroy underground Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure beneath the Ali al-Taher Ridge.
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
4 more
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 73.6/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 73.6/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.