← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- A suicide bombing at a mosque near a police complex in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa killed 16 people. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 18 Sep 2026Bomb attack at Pakistan mosque kills at least 16 people, injures 56
- India summoned Pakistan's charge d'affaires in New Delhi over a naval collision in the Arabian Sea. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 16 Sep 2026India, Pakistan naval vessels collide; MEA summons Pakistan envoy in New Delhi
- An Indian special court issued an arrest warrant for Lashkar-e-Taiba commander Saifullah regarding Jammu and Kashmir attacks. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 17 Sep 2026NIA court issues arrest warrant against Pakistan-based LeT ‘commander’ Saifullah for his role in attacks in J&K
- India's representative at the United Nations Security Council criticized Pakistan for harboring terrorist organizations. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 17 Sep 2026‘Architects of 9/11 were not hiding in caves,’ India tells UNSC in scathing attack at Pakistan
- American drone firm Powerus signed a memorandum of understanding with the Pakistan Army for military unmanned aerial systems. Dawn - Home · 17 Sep 2026US drone maker Powerus says it signed MoU with Pakistan Army, gets initial order
Arabian Sea Naval Collision
India summoned Pakistan's Charge d'Affaires in New Delhi while Islamabad summoned India's top diplomat following a September 15 collision between warships in the Northern Arabian Sea. New Delhi alleged unprofessional conduct in international waters, whereas Islamabad claimed the Indian warship entered its Exclusive Economic Zone. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 16 Sep 2026India, Pakistan naval vessels collide; MEA summons Pakistan envoy in New DelhiAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 17 Sep 2026India-Pakistan navy ship collision sparks alarm over unintended escalation
Diplomatic and Counterterrorism Disputes
India's National Investigation Agency issued an arrest warrant for Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba commander Saifullah regarding attacks in Jammu and Kashmir. At the United Nations Security Council, Indian representatives criticized Pakistan over historical terrorist safe havens. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 17 Sep 2026NIA court issues arrest warrant against Pakistan-based LeT ‘commander’ Saifullah for his role in attacks in J&KIndia Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 17 Sep 2026‘Architects of 9/11 were not hiding in caves,’ India tells UNSC in scathing attack at Pakistan
Defense Procurement and Regional Alliances
United States drone manufacturer Powerus executed a memorandum of understanding with the Pakistan Army for unmanned aerial systems. Pakistani military spokespersons separately declared an unconditional commitment to Saudi Arabia's security under existing mutual defense pacts. Dawn - Home · 17 Sep 2026US drone maker Powerus says it signed MoU with Pakistan Army, gets initial orderDawn - Home · 18 Sep 2026'Our commitment is unconditional': Amid Houthi attacks, DG ISPR says Pakistan will 'go to any extent' to defend Saudi ArabiaDawn - Home · 17 Sep 2026Pakistan committed to implementing Saudi defence pact, Makkah agreement: FO
Assessment
Bilateral interactions remain constrained by mutual diplomatic protests following the May 2025 military cessation, with no kinetic firing across the Line of Control reported.
- 2026-09-16
Pakistani and Indian warships collide during maneuvers in Arabian Sea
A Pakistani naval vessel collided with an Indian Navy warship during high-speed maneuvers in international waters in the Northern Arabian Sea. India summoned Pakistan's chargé d'affaires to protest the collision as a bilateral breach.
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
4 more
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
- 2026-08-12
India designates Attari as e-visa entry point while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani travelers
India updated its e-visa immigration framework to include eleven new entry points, including the Attari land crossing on the Pakistan border. Officials emphasized that travel restrictions and strict vetting for Pakistani nationals remain in effect following the April 2025 diplomatic measures.
- 2026-08-12
Indian security forces arrest suspected Pakistani operative in West Bengal near border
West Bengal Special Task Force officers detained a suspected Pakistani national carrying forged Indian identification documents near the Bangladesh border. Authorities reported the individual had resided illegally in India and initiated investigations into potential intelligence links.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 13.5/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 13.5/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.