← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Russian forces launched over 150 drones and missiles across eight Ukrainian regions, killing at least ten civilians and wounding 75 others. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 17 Sep 2026At least 10 killed, 71 injured in Russian strikes across Ukraine over past day as Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa oblasts bear brunt of attacksThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 17 Sep 2026Ukraine war latest: Russian missile, drone attack on Kyiv injures at least 20The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 18 Sep 2026Deadly strike on industrial zone in Zhytomyr as Russian attacks kill 6, injure 34 over past day
- Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ground control station for Orion unmanned aerial vehicles at Saky airfield in occupied Crimea. Ukrainska Pravda · 18 Sep 2026Ukrainian forces strike control station for Russian Orion drones in Crimea
- A Russian jet-powered drone struck four kilometers from the Polish border in Volyn Oblast, triggering Polish air defence scrambles and airport suspensions. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 17 Sep 2026'Powerful explosion' occurs near Polish border amid Russian drone attack on western Ukraine, Tusk saysKyiv Post · 17 Sep 2026‘Very Massive Explosion’: Russian Drone Falls 4 km From Poland
- Ukraine's Third Army Corps forced the withdrawal of Russia's Rubicon drone unit from the Lyman front during offensive operations. Ukrainska Pravda · 18 Sep 2026Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps says it has crippled Russia's elite Rubicon drone unitUkrinform · 18 Sep 2026Operation Vivaldi: Third Army Corps shows strikes on Russian targets in Lyman sector
- Russian forces launched an FPV drone strike against a passenger bus in Zaporizhzhia's Kosmichnyi district, wounding five civilians. Kyiv Post · 17 Sep 2026Russian FPV Drone Strikes Bus in Zaporizhzhia, Injuring 5
Cross-Border Airspace Risks
Russian long-range aerial attacks utilizing jet-powered drones such as the Banderol and Dan-T models operated within four kilometers of the Polish border near Yahodyn. The proximity of these strikes prompted the Polish Air Force to scramble fighter aircraft and temporarily suspend civilian flight operations at airports in Lublin and Rzeszow. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 17 Sep 2026'Powerful explosion' occurs near Polish border amid Russian drone attack on western Ukraine, Tusk saysMeduza.io · 18 Sep 2026Poland’s prime minister says Russia is preparing ‘accidental’ drone and missile strikes on NATO countries that support UkraineKyiv Post · 17 Sep 2026‘Very Massive Explosion’: Russian Drone Falls 4 km From Poland
Targeting Asymmetry and Infrastructure Focus
Russian strikes targeted civilian housing, public transit, commercial enterprises, and educational facilities in Kyiv, Odesa, Zhytomyr, and Zaporizhzhia. In contrast, Ukrainian long-range and tactical strikes concentrated on Russian military command infrastructure, including the drone control post at Saky airfield in occupied Crimea and artillery positions in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainska Pravda · 18 Sep 2026Ukrainian forces strike control station for Russian Orion drones in CrimeaThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 17 Sep 2026At least 10 killed, 71 injured in Russian strikes across Ukraine over past day as Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa oblasts bear brunt of attacksUkrinform · 18 Sep 2026Two killed, two injured in Russian strike on enterprise in Zhytomyr region
Lyman Sector Counter-Operations
Ukrainian offensive actions under Operation Vivaldi in northern Donetsk Oblast resulted in the liberation of Serednie village. Ukrainian electronic warfare and artillery targeted Russia's specialized Rubicon drone unit, causing high equipment losses that forced Russian commanders to withdraw the unit from the Lyman-Borova axis. Ukrainska Pravda · 18 Sep 2026Russian weekly losses top 10,000 troops killed and wounded for third week running – Estonian intelligence chiefUkrainska Pravda · 18 Sep 2026Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps says it has crippled Russia's elite Rubicon drone unitUkrinform · 18 Sep 2026Operation Vivaldi: Third Army Corps shows strikes on Russian targets in Lyman sector
North Korean Industrial Support
Reports from the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team indicate that up to 25,000 North Korean personnel are operating inside Russia to support military drone production, primarily at the Alabuga special economic zone in Tatarstan, using student visas to bypass international sanctions. Meduza.io · 17 Sep 2026Up to 25,000 North Koreans may be making military drones in Russia. Sanctions monitors say they enter on student visas.
Assessment
High-volume Russian missile and drone strikes against civilian centers alongside Ukrainian counter-attacks on military nodes maintain open interstate combat operations, with persistent risks of aerial incursions along NATO's eastern border.
- 2026-09-16
Ukrainian drone strike kills Russian Major General Anton Grunis
A Ukrainian drone strike killed Russian Major General Anton Grunis in occupied Donetsk Oblast.
- 2026-09-10
Ukrainian forces conduct record 3,000-kilometer strike on a Siberian gas plant.
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck the Novy Urengoy Gas Condensate Treatment Plant in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, marking Kyiv's deepest strike of the war. The facility processes 19.5 million tons of crude oil and natural gas annually to supply fuel for Russian military operations.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
4 more
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 97.1/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 97.1/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.