← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- Taiwan's Air Force conducted test flights of US-made MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones from Hualien Air Base to monitor maritime activities. News - South China Morning Post · 15 Sep 2026Taiwan tests US-made MQ-9B drones to counter PLA ‘grey-zone’ operations
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio ahead of a planned bilateral summit. News - South China Morning Post · 17 Sep 2026China, US may unveil measures to boost military ties when Xi visits Washington
- Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council barred Shanghai Taiwan Affairs Office Deputy Director Li Xiaodong from attending the Shanghai-Taipei Twin City Forum. Taipei Times · 18 Sep 2026MAC, Taipei mayor clash over Twin City Forum
- Tuvaluan Foreign Minister Paulson Panapa met Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te in Taipei to reaffirm bilateral diplomatic relations. Taipei Times · 16 Sep 2026Taiwan deserves a ‘seat at the table,’ diplomat says
- Chinese analysts at the Xiangshan Forum in Beijing criticized potential increases in Japan's defense spending toward 3.5 percent of GDP. News - South China Morning Post · 17 Sep 2026Warning against Japan’s military build-up surfaces at Beijing Xiangshan conference
High-Level Bilateral Diplomacy
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a preparatory phone call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio prior to Chinese President Xi Jinping's upcoming visit to Washington. Officials evaluated options to restart arms-control discussions and military-to-military channels that Beijing suspended in 2024 following American weapons sales to Taiwan. News - South China Morning Post · 17 Sep 2026China, US may unveil measures to boost military ties when Xi visits Washington
Cross-Strait Municipal Friction
Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council denied an entry permit to Shanghai Taiwan Affairs Office Deputy Director Li Xiaodong for the Shanghai-Taipei Twin City Forum. Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an publicly opposed the council's decision, calling for uninterrupted municipal exchanges between Taipei and Shanghai. Taipei Times · 18 Sep 2026MAC, Taipei mayor clash over Twin City Forum
Uncrewed Maritime Reconnaissance
Taiwan's 12th Tactical Reconnaissance Squadron launched test flights of US-made MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones from Hualien Air Base. The air force assigned the platforms to monitor People's Liberation Army maritime patrols off eastern Taiwan. News - South China Morning Post · 15 Sep 2026Taiwan tests US-made MQ-9B drones to counter PLA ‘grey-zone’ operations
Japanese Southwestern Defense Posture
Chinese analysts at the Xiangshan Forum in Beijing criticized proposals for Japan to raise its defense budget to 3.5 percent of gross domestic product. Conservative politician Genta Koja won the Okinawa gubernatorial election on Sunday, ending twelve years of anti-base executive leadership in the prefecture. News - South China Morning Post · 17 Sep 2026Warning against Japan’s military build-up surfaces at Beijing Xiangshan conferenceTaipei Times · 16 Sep 2026Okinawa vote likely to boost Japan’s defense buildup, Taiwan security: Scholars
Assessment
Strategic talks between Washington and Beijing create potential avenues for military risk reduction while Taiwan advances long-range surveillance capabilities to track People's Liberation Army activity.
- 2026-09-16
Conservative Genta Koja wins Okinawa gubernatorial election
Conservative candidate Genta Koja defeated incumbent Denny Tamaki in Okinawa's gubernatorial election, ending twelve years of opposition to Japanese defense expansion.
- 2026-09-04
Top US and Chinese theater commanders meet to restore military communications
PLA Eastern Theater Command General Yang Zhibin met U.S. Admiral Samuel Paparo in Canada to restore senior military communication channels.
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
4 more
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21.2/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21.2/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.