← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- IDF struck Hezbollah weapons depot in Sejoud, southern Lebanon, to neutralize threats to troops in the Security Zone. News from Israel · 26 Sep 2026IDF strikes Hezbollah weapons depot threatening troops in Lebanon
- IDF airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeted villages including Tibnit, Shuba, and Mansouri, reported by Lebanese media. אבו עלי אקספרס · 27 Sep 2026IDF fighter jets attacked targets last night and early this morning in several villages in southern Lebanon:Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 27 Sep 2026Israeli strikes continue in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire
- Israeli airstrikes in Gaza killed Hamas-linked financier Shadi Abu Hatzira and wounded civilians in Shati refugee camp and Khan Yunis. אבו עלי אקספרס · 27 Sep 2026The recently eliminated individual in the strike on the Hyundai jeep at the A-Sana’a junction in western Gaza City is the businessman and accountant Shadi Abu Hatzira.אבו עלי אקספרס · 27 Sep 2026Two IDF strikes in the Gaza Strip in the past hour:
- Hamas military wing commemorated the second anniversary of Hassan Nasrallah’s death, signaling continued operational defiance. אבו עלי אקספרס · 27 Sep 2026The military wing of Hamas publishes, on the occasion of the second anniversary of the elimination of Nasrallah:
- Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for full-scale war in the West Bank and annexation of southern Lebanon, escalating political rhetoric. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 27 Sep 2026Israel’s Smotrich calls for ‘war’ in West Bank: Rhetoric or real threat?
Hezbollah Attacks
Hezbollah launched an explosive drone targeting IDF troops in the Security Zone, prompting immediate Israeli retaliation. Strikes focused on infrastructure used for drone and missile launches, indicating a deliberate escalation despite the ceasefire framework. News from Israel · 27 Sep 2026IDF strikes Hezbollah after explosive drone attack on troopsNews from Israel · 26 Sep 2026IDF strikes Hezbollah weapons depot threatening troops in Lebanon
Israeli Military Action
IDF conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Gaza, targeting Hezbollah weapons depots and Hamas-linked operatives. The strikes in Lebanon included villages near the Blue Line, while Gaza operations killed a Hamas financier and wounded civilians. News from Israel · 27 Sep 2026IDF strikes Hezbollah after explosive drone attack on troopsAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 27 Sep 2026Israeli strikes continue in southern Lebanon despite ceasefireאבו עלי אקספרס · 27 Sep 2026IDF fighter jets attacked targets last night and early this morning in several villages in southern Lebanon:
Hamas Operations
Hamas military wing marked the second anniversary of Hassan Nasrallah’s death, reinforcing its operational resilience. Israeli strikes in Gaza targeted Hamas-linked figures, including those involved in financing and October 7 attacks. אבו עלי אקספרס · 27 Sep 2026The recently eliminated individual in the strike on the Hyundai jeep at the A-Sana’a junction in western Gaza City is the businessman and accountant Shadi Abu Hatzira.JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 27 Sep 2026Terrorist who kidnapped Noa Argamani into Gaza on Oct. 7 killed in weekend strikesאבו עלי אקספרס · 27 Sep 2026The military wing of Hamas publishes, on the occasion of the second anniversary of the elimination of Nasrallah:
Political Rhetoric
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for a full-scale war in the West Bank and annexation of southern Lebanon, signaling a hardening of hawkish positions ahead of elections. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 27 Sep 2026Israel’s Smotrich calls for ‘war’ in West Bank: Rhetoric or real threat?
Assessment
The theater remains in a state of heightened kinetic activity, with ceasefire violations and escalatory rhetoric undermining diplomatic efforts and signaling sustained combat operations.
BOTTOM LINE // Escalated kinetic exchanges in Lebanon and Gaza alongside heightened political rhetoric signal sustained combat operations with no clear de-escalation momentum.
- 2026-09-28
IDF strikes Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon after explosive drone attack on troops
The IDF targeted Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon following a drone attack on Israeli soldiers in the Security Zone, marking a direct breach of the ceasefire framework. Strikes included weapons depots and drone-launching infrastructure, with IDF confirming commitment to the Israel-Lebanon agreement despite the action.
- 2026-09-26
Israeli forces strike Hamas financial network, killing 16 operatives
The IDF and Shin Bet disrupted Hamas financial networks, killing 16 key operatives managing over $1 billion in transfers via Turkey and Gaza.
- 2026-09-24
Israel reduces ground forces in southern Lebanon to six brigades
The Israel Defense Forces reduced active ground formations deployed in southern Lebanon from eight brigades to six.
4 more
- 2026-09-15
Israel establishes kill zone along southern Lebanon front
The Israeli Northern Command established a kill zone separating Israeli-controlled territory from Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.
- 2026-09-11
Israeli forces detonate 1,000 tonnes of explosives at Ali al-Taher ridge
The Israeli military detonated over 1,000 tonnes of explosives to destroy underground Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure beneath the Ali al-Taher Ridge.
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 67.6/100 as of 1 January 1970 (active war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 67.6/100 — active war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.