← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense drafted a NT$22 billion procurement plan to acquire 200 upgraded Hsiung Feng anti-ship missiles through 2035. Taipei Times · 28 Sep 2026Taiwan to build more anti-ship missiles
- Taiwan Deputy Foreign Minister Chen Ming-chi stated Washington understands Taipei's defense needs as Taiwan awaits approval of a $14 billion arms package. Taipei Times · 28 Sep 2026Trump-Xi meeting: US ‘very much’ understands Taiwan’s defense needs, Taipei official says
- United States President Donald Trump stated he discussed Taiwan only briefly with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their Washington summit. News - South China Morning Post · 27 Sep 2026‘Right now, it’s fine’: Trump brushes off questions about summit talk on Taiwan
- China and the United States agreed to pursue a memorandum of understanding establishing military crisis-communication channels for operational commanders. News - South China Morning Post · 26 Sep 2026Beijing says US, China to pursue military crisis-communication pact
- Taiwan transferred the decommissioned 500-ton Coast Guard vessel Kinmen to the Philippines under the registration BLING NO.1. USNI News · 23 Sep 2026Taiwan Transfers Coast Guard Patrol Vessel to the Philippines
Anti-Ship Missile Procurement
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense prepared a NT$22 billion program to acquire approximately 200 enhanced Hsiung Feng II and Hsiung Feng III anti-ship missiles between 2027 and 2035. The planned procurement adds to 1,400 munitions funded through the Sea-Air Combat Power Improvement Plan, intended to arm coastal batteries and naval combatants against People's Liberation Army Navy surface vessels. Taipei Times · 28 Sep 2026Taiwan to build more anti-ship missiles
Bilateral Summit Diplomacy
Following meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that Taiwan was discussed only briefly, while U.S. Ambassador David Perdue affirmed that Washington maintains its longstanding policy framework without endorsing Taiwan independence. In Taipei, Deputy Foreign Minister Chen Ming-chi stated that Taiwan continues to await U.S. approval for an arms sale package valued at approximately US$14 billion. News - South China Morning Post · 27 Sep 2026‘Right now, it’s fine’: Trump brushes off questions about summit talk on TaiwanTaipei Times · 28 Sep 2026Trump-Xi meeting: US ‘very much’ understands Taiwan’s defense needs, Taipei official saysWorld news | The Guardian · 24 Sep 2026At Trump meeting, Xi Jinping lays out terms to avoid US-China military conflict
Crisis Communication Mechanism
Beijing and Washington agreed to negotiate a bilateral memorandum of understanding on military crisis communication and risk reduction. The proposed framework aims to establish direct procedural channels between operational commanders to manage close encounters between armed forces across the Indo-Pacific. News - South China Morning Post · 26 Sep 2026Beijing says US, China to pursue military crisis-communication pact
Regional Posture and Exercises
Taiwan completed the transfer of the decommissioned 500-ton patrol vessel Kinmen to Philippine registry under the name BLING NO.1 in Kaohsiung. In eastern Taiwan, emergency services and military medical teams conducted integrated disaster exercises in Taitung, practicing mass-casualty triage alongside contingency tasks including the simulated rescue of a downed pilot. USNI News · 23 Sep 2026Taiwan Transfers Coast Guard Patrol Vessel to the PhilippinesThe Diplomat · 23 Sep 2026In Taiwan, a Disaster Exercise Prepares for Conflict, Too
Assessment
High-level diplomatic dialogue between Washington and Beijing caps near-term crisis volatility, even as cross-Strait military procurement programs and civil readiness measures proceed.
BOTTOM LINE // Diplomatic engagement and crisis communication efforts limit immediate escalation risks despite ongoing cross-Strait missile procurement and defense readiness measures.
Jiang Lin reports senior PLA leadership views 2035, rather than 2027, as the target year for full all-domain operational capabilities, while recent command purges reduce pushback against Xi Jinping. Mick Ryan highlights that analysts view the 2028 United States and Taiwanese presidential elections as the next pivotal crisis window. Jamestown Foundation · 2 Oct 2026Xi’s Purge and the War Over TaiwanMick Ryan (Futura Doctrina) · 26 Sep 2026Robotic Air Assaults as Vivaldi Rolls Forward, Russia Attacks Ukrainian Digital Infrastructure, Trump and Xi Meet. My Weekly Update.The Diplomat · 2 Oct 2026Taiwan’s New F-16s: Why They Still Matter
- Next 3 months
- The Diplomat assesses Taiwan will continue integrating newly delivered F-16V fighters despite vulnerabilities to massed Chinese precision fires.
WATCH 2028 — Concurrent United States and Taiwan presidential elections identified as a critical flashpoint window for cross-strait escalation. · 2035 — Internal PLA milestone projected by military leadership for achieving comprehensive all-domain operational combat capabilities.
- 2026-09-27
US and China agree to pursue military crisis-communication pact
China's Foreign Ministry announced that Beijing and Washington agreed to pursue a bilateral military crisis-communication memorandum of understanding.
- 2026-09-25
Xi Jinping and Donald Trump meet at the White House
Chinese President Xi Jinping met U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House to address bilateral competition over trade, technology, and Taiwan.
- 2026-09-22
Taiwan transfers decommissioned coast guard vessel to the Philippines
Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration transferred a decommissioned 500-tonne patrol vessel to the Philippine Coast Guard.
4 more
- 2026-09-21
Royal New Zealand Navy vessels transit the Taiwan Strait
Royal New Zealand Navy frigate HMNZS Te Mana and replenishment tanker HMNZS Aotearoa transited the Taiwan Strait.
- 2026-09-16
Conservative Genta Koja wins Okinawa gubernatorial election
Conservative candidate Genta Koja defeated incumbent Denny Tamaki in Okinawa's gubernatorial election, ending twelve years of opposition to Japanese defense expansion.
- 2026-09-04
Top US and Chinese theater commanders meet to restore military communications
PLA Eastern Theater Command General Yang Zhibin met U.S. Admiral Samuel Paparo in Canada to restore senior military communication channels.
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 22.8/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 22.8/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.