← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi cited past cross-LoC operations against Pakistan-backed militants during a national radio address. Hindustan Times · 27 Sep 2026From Balakot to Sindoor, Pakistan-backed terror got befitting response: PM Modi on Mann ki BaatTimes of India · 28 Sep 2026Balakot to Sindoor, India gave befitting reply: PM Modi on Pakistan terror
- Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh warned Pakistan that India remains prepared to strike against state-sponsored terrorism. Hindustan Times · 27 Sep 2026India ready for ‘every kind of strike’ against terrorism: Defence minister Rajnath Singh warns Pakistan
- Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated UNGA engagements advanced trilateral defense implementation under the Makkah pact. Pakistan News, Latest News Pakistan, Pakistan Headline | The Express Tribune · 27 Sep 2026PM Shehbaz says UNGA engagements advanced Pakistan's diplomatic, economic interests
- Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman reviewed regional security coordination with Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir. Pakistan News, Latest News Pakistan, Pakistan Headline | The Express Tribune · 26 Sep 2026Pakistan, KSA reaffirm Makkah's joint defence
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov supported India's candidature for a permanent UN Security Council seat. Hindustan Times · 27 Sep 2026At UN, Russia backs India's bid for permanent Security Council seat
Indian Counter-Terror Rhetoric
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh delivered public addresses referencing the 2016 cross-LoC surgical strikes and Operation Sindoor. Both officials stated that India maintains a zero-tolerance policy toward cross-border terrorism and warned that future attacks would trigger direct military responses against militant infrastructure. Hindustan Times · 27 Sep 2026India ready for ‘every kind of strike’ against terrorism: Defence minister Rajnath Singh warns PakistanHindustan Times · 27 Sep 2026From Balakot to Sindoor, Pakistan-backed terror got befitting response: PM Modi on Mann ki BaatTimes of India · 28 Sep 2026Balakot to Sindoor, India gave befitting reply: PM Modi on Pakistan terror
Makkah Defence Alliance
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif cited progress on trilateral defense cooperation following high-level discussions in Riyadh. Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir met Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman to review operational planning and joint measures under the Makkah Agreement for Joint Defence. Pakistan News, Latest News Pakistan, Pakistan Headline | The Express Tribune · 26 Sep 2026Pakistan, KSA reaffirm Makkah's joint defencePakistan News, Latest News Pakistan, Pakistan Headline | The Express Tribune · 27 Sep 2026PM Shehbaz says UNGA engagements advanced Pakistan's diplomatic, economic interests
UN Security Council Advocacy
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov endorsed India's bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council during his speech to the General Assembly. Separately, Russian Ambassador to India Denis Alipov commented on Western policy toward New Delhi during a public conference. Hindustan Times · 27 Sep 2026‘US won't let India become next China’: Russian envoy claims ‘Freudian slip’ revealed Washington's concernsNDTV News Search Records Found 1000 · 27 Sep 2026Russian Envoy Claims "A Freudian Slip" Revealed US Fears Of India's RiseHindustan Times · 27 Sep 2026At UN, Russia backs India's bid for permanent Security Council seat
Assessment
Indian and Pakistani forces continue to observe the May 2025 military cessation along the Line of Control while high-level messaging remains focused on counter-terrorism and regional alliances.
BOTTOM LINE // State rhetoric and diplomatic exchanges at international forums continue while military forces observe the established ceasefire along the border.
- 2026-09-26
Pakistan warns India that diverting Indus waters constitutes an act of war
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned the United Nations General Assembly that any Indian effort to divert Indus River waters would be treated as an act of war.
- 2026-09-16
Pakistani and Indian warships collide during maneuvers in Arabian Sea
A Pakistani naval vessel collided with an Indian Navy warship during high-speed maneuvers in international waters in the Northern Arabian Sea. India summoned Pakistan's chargé d'affaires to protest the collision as a bilateral breach.
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
4 more
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
- 2026-08-12
India designates Attari as e-visa entry point while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani travelers
India updated its e-visa immigration framework to include eleven new entry points, including the Attari land crossing on the Pakistan border. Officials emphasized that travel restrictions and strict vetting for Pakistani nationals remain in effect following the April 2025 diplomatic measures.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 13.2/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 13.2/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.