← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Russian forces launched 277 attack drones against Kyiv and Ukrainian regional infrastructure, striking telecommunications offices, schools, and residential buildings. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 27 Sep 20262 killed, 4 injured by Russian strikes on market as drones, missiles continue to batter KyivUkrinform · 27 Sep 2026Zelensky: Russia has launched 277 attack drones at Ukraine since yesterday, including 155 jet-powered dronesUkrainska Pravda · 27 Sep 2026Russians strike head office of Ukraine's mobile telecommunications operator
- Russian glide bombs struck Sumy, killing two civilians near a family support center. Ukrinform · 27 Sep 2026Russian airstrikes in Sumy leaves two killed, five injured
- Ukrainian Defense Forces struck a Russian strike-drone launch facility in occupied Donetsk. Ukrinform · 27 Sep 2026Defense Forces strike drone launch site and four Russian warehouses in TOTUkrainska Pravda · 27 Sep 2026Ukraine's General Staff: Strike drone launch site hit in occupied Donetsk
- A Ukrainian long-range drone strike reportedly set fire to the Pavlovskaya oil depot in Russia's Krasnodar Krai. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 28 Sep 2026Fire reported at oil depot in Russia's Krasnodar Krai amid drone attack
- Ukrainian forces conducted counter-operations against Russian infiltration routes in the Lyman sector of Donetsk Oblast. understandingwar.org · 26 Sep 2026Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment September 26 2026Ukrinform · 27 Sep 2026More than 10,600 Russian military personnel neutralized at front over past week — Zelensky
Russian Strategic Aerial Bombardment
Russian forces executed multi-day, large-scale drone and missile strikes targeting Ukrainian urban areas and civilian infrastructure, deploying 277 attack drones in a single 24-hour period including jet-powered models. Strikes in Kyiv damaged a Kyivstar telecommunications head office, data centers, schools, and apartment buildings, while airstrikes using KAB guided bombs hit residential areas in Sumy and market facilities outside Kyiv, causing widespread civilian casualties. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 27 Sep 20262 killed, 4 injured by Russian strikes on market as drones, missiles continue to batter KyivUkrainska Pravda · 27 Sep 2026Russian attack on Kyiv Oblast kills 1 person and injures 4The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 27 Sep 2026Russian attacks kill 14, injure 57 across Ukraine, with Odesa Oblast targeted in 'mass strike'
Ukrainian Interdiction of Russian Logistics
Ukrainian forces targeted Russian war-sustaining infrastructure and occupied military staging points through combined long-range and tactical strikes. A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly ignited a major fire at the Pavlovskaya oil depot in Krasnodar Krai, aiming to disrupt Russian military fuel supply lines. In occupied Donetsk and Luhansk, Ukrainian strikes hit a Russian UAV launch and preparation facility in Donetsk along with four ammunition, fuel, and logistics depots. Ukrinform · 27 Sep 2026Defense Forces strike drone launch site and four Russian warehouses in TOTThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 28 Sep 2026Fire reported at oil depot in Russia's Krasnodar Krai amid drone attackUkrainska Pravda · 27 Sep 2026Ukraine's General Staff: Strike drone launch site hit in occupied Donetsk
Lyman Sector Ground Operations
Ukrainian forces adapted counteroffensive tactics in Donetsk Oblast under Operation Vivaldi, systematically targeting Russian supply routes, motorcycle, and ATV assault teams attempting to reinforce forward infiltration groups in the Lyman sector. Ukrainian commanders reported tactical advances into Russian rear areas, disrupting drone and electronic warfare operator positions while claiming over 10,000 Russian personnel neutralized across active fronts during the week. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 27 Sep 2026Zelensky says over 10,000 Russian troops killed or wounded this week as Ukrainian military advances in Lyman sectorunderstandingwar.org · 26 Sep 2026Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment September 26 2026Ukrinform · 27 Sep 2026More than 10,600 Russian military personnel neutralized at front over past week — Zelensky
Assessment
The theater remains in open interstate war marked by intense Russian air campaigns against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and sustained Ukrainian strikes against Russian military logistics and energy assets.
BOTTOM LINE // Sustained open war continues with Russian mass drone and missile bombardment of Ukrainian cities alongside Ukrainian strikes on Russian military logistics and energy assets.
ISW assesses Ukrainian forces will produce roughly 400 interceptor drones of one model by late October 2026 to counter Russian strikes. Mick Ryan warns expanded Russian production will leave Ukrainian infrastructure exposed to heavier raids, while OSW reports Moscow will maintain elevated defense spending of 50 trillion roubles through 2027 to 2029. Institute for the Study of War · 3 Oct 2026Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment October 2 2026Institute for the Study of War · 3 Oct 2026Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment Updates September 2026 PresentMick Ryan (Futura Doctrina) · 26 Sep 2026Robotic Air Assaults as Vivaldi Rolls Forward, Russia Attacks Ukrainian Digital Infrastructure, Trump and Xi Meet. My Weekly Update.OSW Centre for Eastern Studies · 29 Sep 2026The Russians are attacking data centres in Kyiv. Day 1679 of the war
- Next month
- ISW projects Ukraine will produce approximately 400 units of a new interceptor drone model by the end of October 2026.
- Next 3 months
- ISW expects Ukrainian operational security surrounding counterattacks will continue obscuring net front-line territorial assessments over coming months.
WATCH Late October 2026 — Ukrainian domestic rollout of 400 new interceptor drones to counter Russian jet-powered drone strikes. · 2027–2029 — Russian planned defense expenditure reaching 50 trillion roubles to sustain prolonged war efforts.
- 2026-09-28
Ukrainian forces advance in the Lyman sector during counter-operations against Russian infiltration routes.
Ukrainian forces executed Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman sector of Donetsk Oblast, targeting Russian supply lines and mechanized infiltration teams. Ukrainian leadership reported over 10,000 Russian troops neutralized across active combat sectors over the past week.
- 2026-09-22
US President Donald Trump meets Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York
United States President Donald Trump met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York to discuss peace negotiations and air defense manufacturing.
- 2026-09-21
Ukraine debuts Pelican ballistic missile in strikes on Russian facilities
Ukrainian long-range strikes deployed the new Pelican ballistic missile against industrial and oil refining facilities in Russia's Moscow and Voronezh regions.
4 more
- 2026-09-16
Ukrainian drone strike kills Russian Major General Anton Grunis
A Ukrainian drone strike killed Russian Major General Anton Grunis in occupied Donetsk Oblast.
- 2026-09-10
Ukrainian forces conduct record 3,000-kilometer strike on a Siberian gas plant.
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck the Novy Urengoy Gas Condensate Treatment Plant in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, marking Kyiv's deepest strike of the war. The facility processes 19.5 million tons of crude oil and natural gas annually to supply fuel for Russian military operations.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 96.6/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 96.6/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.