← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Yemen War & Houthi Attacks
Saudi – Houthis conflict
- Yemeni National Resistance forces launched strikes south of Hudaydah, reportedly killing or wounding over 33 Houthi fighters. Yemen Online · 25 Aug 2026[Yemen : Over 33 Houthis Killed or Wounded in National Resistance Strikes South of Hudaydah
- Houthi insurgents targeted a government complex in Taiz governorate with mortar shells for the second time in a month. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 26 Aug 2026Yemen’s Houthis target complex in Taiz for 2nd time in month: News agency
- Yemeni government forces repelled a Houthi assault on the Kallabah front in Taiz, killing eight Houthi fighters. Yemen Online · 26 Aug 2026[Yemen : Gov’t Forces Repel Houthi Attack in Taiz, Killing 8
- Houthi authorities referred six detained United Nations and non-governmental organization workers to a specialized criminal court in Sana'a. Yemen Online · 26 Aug 2026[Yemen : Houthis Refer UN Staff , NGO Workers to Specialized Court in Sana’a
- Presidential Leadership Council Chairman Rashad al-Alimi ordered the closure of unapproved Yemeni ports to disrupt Houthi arms smuggling. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 26 Aug 2026Yemen orders closure of ports operating outside government law amid efforts to cut Houthi arms supplies
Hudaydah and Taiz Clashes
Yemeni National Resistance strikes south of Hudaydah killed or wounded over 33 Houthi fighters. Yemeni government troops repelled a Houthi offensive on the Kallabah front northeast of Taiz, resulting in eight Houthi fatalities. Houthi forces launched mortar shells against a government complex in Taiz governorate. Yemen Online · 25 Aug 2026[Yemen : Over 33 Houthis Killed or Wounded in National Resistance Strikes South of HudaydahYemen Online · 26 Aug 2026[Yemen : Gov’t Forces Repel Houthi Attack in Taiz, Killing 8Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 26 Aug 2026Yemen’s Houthis target complex in Taiz for 2nd time in month: News agency
Red Sea Maritime Security
King Salman chaired a Saudi Cabinet session in Jeddah emphasizing the protection of the Bab al-Mandab and Strait of Hormuz. Presidential Leadership Council Chairman Rashad al-Alimi ordered a review to shut down unapproved coastal ports and land crossings to block Houthi weapons supply lines. https://saudigazette.com.sa · 25 Aug 2026Saudi Arabia stresses need to keep vital waterways secure and threat-freeAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 26 Aug 2026Yemen orders closure of ports operating outside government law amid efforts to cut Houthi arms supplies
Sana'a Detainee Prosecutions
Houthi authorities in Sana'a transferred six detained aid personnel, including United Nations staff and non-governmental organization workers, to the Specialized Criminal Prosecution. Human Rights Watch confirmed the referrals, which mark an escalation in legal actions against international organizations. Yemen Online · 26 Aug 2026[Yemen : Houthis Refer UN Staff , NGO Workers to Specialized Court in Sana’a
Hadramout Factional Disputes
The Southern Transitional Council denounced an action by Saudi oversight authorities against its headquarters in Mukalla. Three military vehicles belonging to Saudi-backed oversight forces surrounded the facility in Hadramout governorate. Yemen Online · 25 Aug 2026[Yemen : STC Condemns Saudi Oversight Authorities’ Attack on Its Headquarters in Mukalla
Assessment
Intensified ground combat in western governorates alongside legal action against international personnel and maritime vulnerability maintains severe conflict pressure.
- 2026-08-24
Houthi ballistic missile damages commercial tanker off Yanbu
Ansar Allah fired a ballistic missile that struck a commercial tanker 63 nautical miles west of Yanbu, igniting a shipboard fire.
- 2026-08-19
Ansar Allah launches drone strikes targeting the Saudi Aramco oil refinery in Jizan.
On August 18, 2026, Houthi forces targeted Saudi Aramco's oil refinery facility in Jizan with drones. The strike represents a direct attack on Saudi energy infrastructure amid renewed cross-border hostilities.
- 2026-08-17
Ansar Allah claims missile strikes on Saudi military vessels off Mocha.
Houthi forces claimed targeting a Saudi military landing ship and four patrol craft with ballistic missiles and drones off the coast of Mocha. Yemeni army sources reported five ballistic missiles launched toward Bab al-Mandeb and Red Sea shipping lanes.
3 more
- 2026-08-15
Houthi strikes on Mokha port kill eight and shut down maritime operations
Houthi missile and drone strikes targeted Mokha port, killing eight people and forcing authorities to suspend all maritime operations.
- 2026-08-12
Houthi forces launch fatal Red Sea ship attack and sustain missile strikes on Mokha
A Houthi attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea killed six crew members, including three Pakistani nationals and one Indonesian. Concurrently, Houthi forces launched ten missiles and four drones targeting Yemen's western coast and Mokha port over four consecutive days.
- 2026-08-11
Fatal Houthi missile strike on commercial vessel near Bab el-Mandeb kills three crew members.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war in Yemen?
Not a declared war between states. The armed confrontation is between the Houthi movement and the Saudi-led coalition and the Yemeni government, and it reaches shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait. Fighting has continued through repeated truces without a settlement. Legally a non-international armed conflict — the Houthis against Yemen's government — internationalized by Saudi and Emirati involvement. The index reads 76/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Saudi and Houthis situation right now?
The index reads 76/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Saudi and Houthis risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.