← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- Taiwanese prosecutors charged nine individuals, including Nvidia and Super Micro employees, for illegally smuggling prohibited B300 artificial intelligence servers to mainland China. World news | The Guardian · 25 Aug 2026Taiwan charges nine people for smuggling ‘high-end’ AI servers to China
- The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China advised Chinese citizens to evacuate Eswatini, citing security risks associated with illegal online gambling operations. BBC News · 26 Aug 2026China advises its citizens to leave Taiwan ally Eswatini over 'security risks'
- The People's Liberation Army procurement website published a notice soliciting public reports on corruption within the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force. News - South China Morning Post · 25 Aug 2026China seeks public tips on procurement violations as PLA Rocket Force probe continues
- Two United States-flown F-16 Block 70 fighters staged in Guam ahead of final transit to Taiwan's Chihhang Air Base in Taitung County. News - South China Morning Post · 25 Aug 2026Can Taiwan’s new F-16s level the playing field against the PLA’s J-20 stealth fighters?
- Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense officials logged 118 Chinese coast guard and official vessel deployments around Taiwan during August 2026. News - South China Morning Post · 24 Aug 2026Mainland China’s ship activity near Taiwan hits record for third month in a row
Technological Export Controls
Taiwanese prosecutors charged nine individuals, including personnel from Nvidia and Super Micro, for illegally exporting 74 prohibited Nvidia B300 artificial intelligence servers to mainland China via transshipment routes in Indonesia and Hong Kong. World news | The Guardian · 25 Aug 2026Taiwan charges nine people for smuggling ‘high-end’ AI servers to China
Diplomatic Pressure on Eswatini
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China instructed Chinese nationals to evacuate Eswatini over cyber fraud and gambling concerns, following Eswatini's detention of 40 Chinese nationals and its status as Taiwan's sole African diplomatic partner. BBC News · 26 Aug 2026China advises its citizens to leave Taiwan ally Eswatini over 'security risks'
Strategic Forces Integrity
The People's Liberation Army opened a public reporting channel for procurement violations across equipment, construction, and supply contracts within the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force. News - South China Morning Post · 25 Aug 2026China seeks public tips on procurement violations as PLA Rocket Force probe continues
Maritime Gray-Zone Activity
Chinese coast guard and official vessels registered 118 detections around Taiwan in the first 24 days of August 2026, expanding law enforcement presence east of the main island. News - South China Morning Post · 24 Aug 2026Mainland China’s ship activity near Taiwan hits record for third month in a row
Assessment
Ongoing high-tech supply chain interdiction, diplomatic pressure on Taiwan's foreign partners, and elevated maritime patrols highlight active cross-Strait friction without open military conflict.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
1 more
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.