← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced secondary sanctions targeting 60 entities, individuals, or vessels involved in Iranian trade. World news | The Guardian · 25 Aug 2026China denounces US threat of sanctions over trade with Iran
- Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian warned Beijing will take all necessary measures to protect Chinese firms against U.S. sanctions. World news | The Guardian · 25 Aug 2026China denounces US threat of sanctions over trade with Iran
- Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi rejected U.S. mine-clearing claims, stating the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Tehran Times · 26 Aug 2026Oman understanding does not mean Hormuz reopening: IranAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 26 Aug 2026Why Hormuz remains high risk for ships despite US claims of mine-clearing
- Iranian Army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia requested documented information from Qatar regarding three Iranian pilots missing since a March strike. Tehran Times · 26 Aug 2026Iran seeks clear answer from Qatar on fate of three missing pilots
- U.S. President Donald Trump stated Washington has no fixed timetable for Iran to resume peace negotiations. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 26 Aug 2026Trump tells Al Jazeera ‘not in a hurry’ for Iran to return to talksAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 26 Aug 2026Trump says Iran war will continue for as long as necessary
U.S. Secondary Sanctions Measures
Washington’s secondary sanctions campaign aims to force economic compliance after military strikes failed to alter Iranian policy. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent designated 60 entities, individuals, and vessels operating across Iranian technology and shipping sectors. Beijing pledged protective measures for Chinese corporations, escalating trade friction between the United States and China over Iranian oil exports. Latest news from the Middle East, daily international news reports - France 24 · 25 Aug 2026US economic D-Day sanctions: 'Repeated bombing attacks across Iran failed to change the calculus'World news | The Guardian · 25 Aug 2026China denounces US threat of sanctions over trade with Iran
Strait of Hormuz Security Status
Control over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains contested between Washington and Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump claimed U.S. naval forces cleared sea mines from the waterway. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi refuted the claim, asserting that the strait remains closed under Iranian security oversight despite maritime consultations with Oman. Tehran Times · 26 Aug 2026Oman understanding does not mean Hormuz reopening: IranAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 26 Aug 2026Why Hormuz remains high risk for ships despite US claims of mine-clearing
Iranian Operational Disclosures
Iranian military officials released details regarding past combat losses and defense procurement. Iranian Army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia requested documented findings from Qatari authorities regarding three crew members missing after two Iranian Sukhoi jets fell during a March 12 attack on a U.S. base in Qatar. Akraminia also stated that Iranian defense industries rebuilt damaged military hardware and imported replacement systems. Tehran Times · 26 Aug 2026Iran seeks clear answer from Qatar on fate of three missing pilots© Atta Kenare, AFP · 26 Aug 2026Middle East live: Netanyahu says diplomatic deal not possible with Iranian 'savages'
U.S. Negotiating Position
Washington signaled a shift toward open-ended economic and military coercion without imposing timelines for diplomacy. U.S. President Donald Trump stated he is in no hurry for Iranian representatives to return to negotiations. Iranian Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh outlined a two-year economic resilience plan to absorb U.S. financial pressure. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 26 Aug 2026Trump tells Al Jazeera ‘not in a hurry’ for Iran to return to talksAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 26 Aug 2026Iran emphasises self-sufficiency in battle against US economic warAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 26 Aug 2026Trump says Iran war will continue for as long as necessary
Assessment
Competing claims over Strait of Hormuz access and expanding U.S. secondary sanctions indicate a prolonged economic and maritime stalemate without immediate diplomatic resolution.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
4 more
- 2026-08-17
U.S. and Iran fail to reach broad agreement as diplomatic deadline expires.
The June Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired on August 17 without a broad peace agreement. Direct and indirect negotiations deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz maritime blockade enforcement and ceasefire terms.
- 2026-08-14
US Navy deploys USS George Washington to the Middle East
The U.S. Navy deployed the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to relieve the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln.
- 2026-08-13
United States enforces Hormuz blockade while Tehran rejects American control claims
US CENTCOM forces redirected dozens of commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as part of active blockade measures. Iranian officials disputed assertions of complete US control while commercial maritime transit through the chokepoint dropped to multi-month lows.
- 2026-08-12
Iran reports no progress in peace talks with U.S. amid Hormuz dispute
Iran stated that no progress has been made toward reviving an interim peace agreement with the United States. Negotiations remain stalled over maritime access and naval enforcement within the Strait of Hormuz.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.