← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicles struck the Lukoil NORSI oil refinery in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod region, forcing the facility to suspend processing operations. Ukrinform · 26 Aug 2026Russia’s fourth-largest oil refinery halts oil processing after drone attack – Reuters
- Ukrainian long-range drones struck a Wildberries logistics hub in Kotovsk in Russia's Tambov Oblast, causing a massive warehouse fire. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 25 Aug 2026Ukrainian forces resume strikes on Russia's Wildberries amid reported attack in Tambov OblastMeduza.io · 26 Aug 2026Ukrainian drones strike Russia’s Lipetsk region, killing two. Wildberries warehouse hit again in Tambov region.
- Ukrainian forces targeted Russian radar installations, drone training centers, and command posts across occupied Crimea and Luhansk Oblast. Ukrinform · 26 Aug 2026Ukraine strikes Russian radar, drone training center and military supply hubsUkrinform · 26 Aug 2026USF strikes Russian deployment and command posts in Donetsk and Luhansk regions
- Russian drone strikes targeted residential areas in Chernihiv Oblast, killing two civilians including a four-year-old child. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 25 Aug 2026Chernihiv Oblast hit by 45 Russian attacks as 5 killed, dozens injured across Ukraine in past dayUkrainska Pravda · 26 Aug 2026Pharmacy worker and her 4-year-old daughter killed in Russian strike on Chernihiv
- Belarusian military authorities ordered a surprise combat-readiness deployment for a brigade stationed near the Ukrainian border. Kyiv Post · 26 Aug 2026Belarus Orders Surprise Military Readiness Check as CIA Chief Visits Moscow
Energy and Logistics Strikes
Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicles expanded deep-strike operations against Russian industrial infrastructure, forcing the complete shutdown of crude oil processing at Lukoil's NORSI refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. The attack on Russia's fourth-largest refinery follows prior strikes that rendered Lukoil's Perm and Volgograd facilities inactive. Ukrainian drones also destroyed a major Wildberries commercial distribution hub in Kotovsk, Tambov Oblast, causing a fire spanning over 100,000 square meters. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 25 Aug 2026Ukrainian forces resume strikes on Russia's Wildberries amid reported attack in Tambov OblastMeduza.io · 26 Aug 2026Ukrainian drones strike Russia’s Lipetsk region, killing two. Wildberries warehouse hit again in Tambov region.Ukrinform · 26 Aug 2026Russia’s fourth-largest oil refinery halts oil processing after drone attack – Reuters
Military Command Interdiction
Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted targeted strikes against Russian military assets across occupied regions and forward staging sites. Strikes hit a Kasta radar station in Kacha and a repair base in Pervomaiske in occupied Crimea, alongside a drone training center in Luhansk. In Luhansk Oblast, Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces struck a temporary deployment site and command post belonging to the Russian 5th Cossack Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade Terek in Yashchykove. Ukrinform · 26 Aug 2026Ukraine strikes Russian radar, drone training center and military supply hubsUkrinform · 26 Aug 2026USF strikes Russian deployment and command posts in Donetsk and Luhansk regions
Urban Bombardment and Infrastructure Damage
Russian forces conducted widespread missile, artillery, and drone attacks across Ukrainian border and frontline regions, launching over 150 drones and ballistic missiles. Strikes in Chernihiv Oblast damaged residential structures in Chernihiv city and killed two civilians, including a child. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Russian uncrewed aerial vehicles targeted a vehicle carrying DTEK mine workers, killing two personnel, while double-tap drone strikes in Kramatorsk damaged emergency service vehicles responding to civilian casualties. Ukrinform · 26 Aug 2026Russian forces attack civilian enterprise with drone in Rohan, leaving three injuredUkrinform · 26 Aug 2026Russian drone strikes house in Derhachi, two people injuredThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 25 Aug 2026Chernihiv Oblast hit by 45 Russian attacks as 5 killed, dozens injured across Ukraine in past day
Northern Border Security
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko ordered an unannounced combat-readiness inspection deploying a brigade from its permanent base in Gomel Oblast. Simultaneously, Belarusian authorities advanced construction of a military railway link near Yakimivka capable of handling 60 railcars for a planned military training facility near the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, Russia announced plans to summon Romania's chargé d'affaires in Moscow following Bucharest's expulsion of a Russian diplomat over previous airspace violations. The Moscow Times - Independent News From Russia · 26 Aug 2026Moscow to Summon Romanian Envoy After Russian Diplomat Expelled Over Drone IncursionsKyiv Post · 26 Aug 2026Belarus Builds Military Rail Link Near Border With UkraineUkrainska Pravda · 26 Aug 2026Belarus builds railway for new military facility: what Ukrainian border guards say
Assessment
Open interstate war continues at high intensity, marked by systematic Ukrainian long-range interdiction of Russian refining and commercial logistics alongside heavy Russian aerial bombardment of Ukrainian urban centers and border zones.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 94/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 94/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.