← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Yemen War & Houthi Attacks
Saudi – Houthis conflict
- Ansar Allah forces captured the strategic Red Sea port city of Mocha and advanced across western Yemen, causing civilian displacement toward Aden. World news | The Guardian · 10 Sep 2026Houthis seize key Yemeni port of Mocha in drive to take control of Red Sea coast© Media Centre Of The Yemeni Armed Forces via Reuters · 9 Sep 2026Middle East live: Yemen’s Houthi rebels report roughly 40 Saudi air strikesYemen Online · 10 Sep 2026[Yemen: Large-Scale Displacement from Mocha Toward Aden
- The Saudi-led coalition conducted over 40 airstrikes targeting Ansar Allah positions in Al-Salif, Al-Tuhayta, Kamaran Island, and multiple Yemeni governorates. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 10 Sep 2026Fighting escalates in Yemen; Houthi attacks trigger alerts in Saudi ArabiaAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 10 Sep 2026Saudi aircraft carry out 40 airstrikes in Yemen: Report
- Ansar Allah launched ballistic missiles and drones against southern Saudi cities including Abha, Jazan, Najran, and Khamis Mushait, injuring 73 civilians. Yemen Online · 10 Sep 2026[UN Envoy Warns Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia Risk Expanding Regional Conflicthttps://saudigazette.com.sa · 9 Sep 2026Coalition vows decisive response to persistent Houthi attacks on Saudi ArabiaAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 9 Sep 2026Saudi-led coalition says Houthis attacked 3 Saudi cities
- Ansar Allah artillery shelling killed three children and wounded six civilians at a gathering of displaced families in Marib province. Yemen Online · 10 Sep 2026[3 Children Killed in Shelling on Displaced Families Gathering in Yemen's MaribAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 10 Sep 2026Fighting escalates in Yemen; Houthi attacks trigger alerts in Saudi Arabia
- Yemeni government forces repelled an Ansar Allah offensive on the Morais front in Al-Dhalea and launched counteroffensives in Taiz, Al-Bayda, and northern Yemen. Yemen Online · 9 Sep 2026[Yemeni Gov‘t Forces Repel Houthi Attack in Al-Dhalea, Launch CounteroffensiveAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 9 Sep 2026Yemeni army says it captured 'vast areas' from Houthis in northern YemenYemen Online · 9 Sep 2026[Yemeni Army Launches Airstrikes on Houthi Positions West of Taiz; Reports Advances in Multiple Fronts
Western Coast Offensive
Ansar Allah fighters seized the strategic Red Sea port city of Mocha and pushed through Hays and Al-Khawkhah, taking near-complete control of the Hudaydah coastal corridor. The rapid advance displaced thousands of residents toward Aden and prompted the internationally recognized government to establish a new joint command center. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 10 Sep 2026Yemen forms command center after Houthi forces breach western front linesWorld news | The Guardian · 10 Sep 2026Houthis seize key Yemeni port of Mocha in drive to take control of Red Sea coastAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 10 Sep 2026From Al-Hudaydah to Mocha: Rapid developments reshape Yemen’s military map
Coalition Airstrikes
Saudi-led coalition warplanes launched over 40 air raids targeting Ansar Allah installations on Kamaran Island and in the Al-Salif and Al-Tuhayta districts. Coalition officials cited Article 51 of the UN Charter to justify defensive operations aimed at neutralizing launch infrastructure. https://saudigazette.com.sa · 9 Sep 2026Coalition vows decisive response to persistent Houthi attacks on Saudi ArabiaAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 10 Sep 2026Fighting escalates in Yemen; Houthi attacks trigger alerts in Saudi ArabiaAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 10 Sep 2026Saudi aircraft carry out 40 airstrikes in Yemen: Report
Cross-Border Strikes
Ansar Allah executed coordinated ballistic missile and drone strikes against urban and economic sites in Abha, Jazan, Najran, and Khamis Mushait, injuring 73 civilians. Saudi authorities condemned the strikes, while United Nations officials warned that deep cross-border bombardments endanger remaining diplomatic de-escalation frameworks. Yemen Online · 10 Sep 2026[UN Envoy Warns Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia Risk Expanding Regional Conflicthttps://saudigazette.com.sa · 9 Sep 2026Coalition vows decisive response to persistent Houthi attacks on Saudi ArabiaAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 9 Sep 2026Saudi-led coalition says Houthis attacked 3 Saudi cities
Internal Frontlines
Yemeni government troops repelled an Ansar Allah ground assault on the Morais front in Al-Dhalea before mounting counterattacks in Taiz, Al-Bayda, and northern governorates. Ansar Allah artillery shelling struck displaced families at Harib Junction in Marib, killing three children and injuring six others. Yemen Online · 10 Sep 2026[3 Children Killed in Shelling on Displaced Families Gathering in Yemen's MaribYemen Online · 9 Sep 2026[Yemeni Gov‘t Forces Repel Houthi Attack in Al-Dhalea, Launch CounteroffensiveAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 9 Sep 2026Yemeni army says it captured 'vast areas' from Houthis in northern Yemen
Assessment
Ansar Allah's capture of Mocha alongside persistent missile strikes against Saudi urban centers leaves political roadmap efforts virtually inactive and severely heightens the probability of sustained interstate military escalation along the Bab al-Mandeb maritime corridor.
- 2026-09-10
Ansar Allah forces capture the strategic Red Sea port city of Mocha.
Ansar Allah fighters seized the port city of Mocha and advanced along Yemen's western coast, driving civilian displacement toward Aden and drawing heavy Saudi-led airstrikes.
- 2026-09-08
Ansar Allah launched cross-border missile and drone strikes against Saudi energy facilities and southern cities.
Ansar Allah targeted Saudi Aramco oil installations, economic sites, and military bases across Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan, and Najran with dozens of drones and ballistic missiles. The attacks injured 73 civilians and ignited operational fires at energy sites, prompting Saudi Arabia to announce military retaliation.
- 2026-09-06
Yemeni government forces recapture Hays district from Ansar Allah
Yemeni government troops recaptured Hays district following armed clashes that killed over 60 combatants.
4 more
- 2026-09-05
Yemeni government warplanes conduct airstrikes against Ansar Allah positions in Taiz and Hodeidah.
Yemeni government aircraft executed 15 airstrikes targeting Ansar Allah troop concentrations, vehicles, and combat positions in Hays, al-Kadha, and Maqbanah. The operations mark the first deployment of government airpower since coastal fighting escalated.
- 2026-09-02
Ansar Allah establishes military cooperation pact with al-Shabaab
Reports revealed structured cooperation between Ansar Allah and Somalia's al-Shabaab militia involving drone technology transfers and fighter training across the Gulf of Aden.
- 2026-09-01
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan activate Makkah Joint Defense Agreement
The three nations established a General Secretariat in Riyadh to operationalize the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement.
- 2026-08-24
Houthi ballistic missile damages commercial tanker off Yanbu
Ansar Allah fired a ballistic missile that struck a commercial tanker 63 nautical miles west of Yanbu, igniting a shipboard fire.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war in Yemen?
Not a declared war between states. The armed confrontation is between the Houthi movement and the Saudi-led coalition and the Yemeni government, and it reaches shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait. Fighting has continued through repeated truces without a settlement. Legally a non-international armed conflict — the Houthis against Yemen's government — internationalized by Saudi and Emirati involvement. The index reads 76/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Saudi and Houthis situation right now?
The index reads 76/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Saudi and Houthis risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.