← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- The IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution reporting Iran to the UN Security Council over non-proliferation obligations. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 10 Sep 2026IAEA accuses Iran of ‘noncompliance’: Why, and what now?Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 9 Sep 2026IAEA board refers Iran to UN Security Council over nuclear ‘non-compliance’AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 9 Sep 2026IAEA board passes resolution reporting Iran to UN Security Council
- U.S. military forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman. NPR Topics: World · 8 Sep 2026U.S. military says it destroyed 5 Iranian oil tankers after attacks on Navy warship© US Central Command via Reuters · 9 Sep 2026Iran and US strike tankers in biggest shipping attack since war beganFrance 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines · 9 Sep 2026Iran attacks US base after American strikes on tankers
- Iranian forces launched ballistic missiles at the U.S.-operated Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. © US Central Command via Reuters · 9 Sep 2026Iran and US strike tankers in biggest shipping attack since war beganFrance 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines · 9 Sep 2026Iran attacks US base after American strikes on tankersAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 10 Sep 2026Why is Iran bombing Jordan’s Al-Azraq base?
- Iranian naval units struck ten commercial merchant vessels attempting to navigate the Strait of Hormuz. © US Central Command via Reuters · 9 Sep 2026Iran and US strike tankers in biggest shipping attack since war beganLatest news from the Middle East, daily international news reports - France 24 · 9 Sep 2026Iran strikes ships, expands no-go zone outside Hormuz straitWorld news | The Guardian · 9 Sep 2026Iran claims to have attacked 10 ships near strait of Hormuz after US strikes
- IRGC Navy forces captured a U.S. military Anduril Dive-LD uncrewed underwater vehicle near the Strait of Hormuz. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 9 Sep 2026Iran likely to reverse-engineer captured US underwater droneTehran Times · 9 Sep 2026Iran will strike 20 targets for every two hits by enemy, IRGC warns
IAEA UNSC Referral
The IAEA Board of Governors formally referred Iran to the UN Security Council for non-compliance with nuclear non-proliferation obligations, marking the first such diplomatic referral in twenty years. Western sponsors backed the measure after IAEA inspectors spent over a year without access to key Iranian nuclear facilities following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 10 Sep 2026IAEA accuses Iran of ‘noncompliance’: Why, and what now?Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 9 Sep 2026IAEA board refers Iran to UN Security Council over nuclear ‘non-compliance’AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 9 Sep 2026IAEA board passes resolution reporting Iran to UN Security Council
Asymmetric Maritime and Air Warfare
Direct combat operations showed distinct target selection, with U.S. forces destroying five Iranian crude oil tankers to enforce a commercial blockade, while Iranian forces fired ballistic missiles at the U.S.-operated Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Iranian naval units also attacked ten commercial vessels attempting unauthorized transit of the Strait of Hormuz, driving Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel. © US Central Command via Reuters · 9 Sep 2026Iran and US strike tankers in biggest shipping attack since war beganWorld news | The Guardian · 9 Sep 2026Iran claims to have attacked 10 ships near strait of Hormuz after US strikesAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 10 Sep 2026Why is Iran bombing Jordan’s Al-Azraq base?
Unmanned Systems Capture
IRGC naval forces seized a U.S. Navy Anduril Dive-LD autonomous underwater vehicle in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian military officials stated the captured vessel provides opportunities to reverse-engineer uncrewed maritime technology, while U.S. officials downplayed the loss. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 9 Sep 2026Iran likely to reverse-engineer captured US underwater droneTehran Times · 9 Sep 2026Iran will strike 20 targets for every two hits by enemy, IRGC warns
Natanz Facility Hardening
Satellite imagery analyzed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies revealed accelerated construction at a deeply buried underground site near Natanz. Analysts assessed the complex is not yet operational for uranium enrichment but indicates efforts to secure nuclear infrastructure against aerial strikes. Iran International · 9 Sep 2026Construction surges at suspected Iran nuclear site – CSIS
Assessment
Expanding direct strikes on state energy infrastructure, foreign military bases, and commercial shipping alongside the breakdown of diplomatic non-proliferation safeguards elevate regional combat risks.
- 2026-09-10
IAEA Board of Governors reports Iran to UN Security Council for non-compliance.
The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for non-proliferation non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The action follows over a year of denied IAEA inspector access to Iranian nuclear installations.
- 2026-09-09
U.S. forces destroy five Iranian oil tankers following IRGC missile attacks on warships
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC forces launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian forces retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-09-08
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
4 more
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.