← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against the Novy Urengoy gas processing facility in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets region. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 9 Sep 2026Ukraine war latest: Ukraine launches record-breaking deep strike on gas facility in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets region, over 3,000 km from border
- Ukrainian forces launched drones at oil facilities inside Russia's Makhachkala Commercial Sea Port in Dagestan. Meduza.io · 10 Sep 2026Ukraine attacks port in Russia’s Dagestan with drones. One drone hits theater building.The Moscow Times - Independent News From Russia · 10 Sep 2026Voronezh Woman Killed and Caspian Seaport Hit in Ukrainian Drone StrikesUkrainska Pravda · 10 Sep 2026Ukrainian forces strike oil infrastructure at Russia's ice-free port of Makhachkala
- Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels struck the Sochi waterfront in Krasnodar Krai, injuring 28 civilians. Meduza.io · 10 Sep 2026Ukrainian sea drones strike Sochi waterfront, injuring nearly 30. Photos and videos from the scene.
- Russian strike drones targeted residential neighborhoods across Kyiv Oblast, killing two civilians. Ukrainska Pravda · 10 Sep 2026Russians attack Kyiv Oblast: one killed, two injuredThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 10 Sep 2026Russian drones strike Kyiv gas station, injure four, as near-daily attacks continueKyiv Post · 9 Sep 2026Kyiv Under Air Alert for Over 6 Hours as Russian Attack Kills 1, Injures 16
- Russian drones struck the Starokozache road border crossing facility located on the border between Ukraine and Moldova. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 9 Sep 2026Moldovan President Sandu condemns Russian drone strike on border crossing point that killed two, injured threeKyiv Post · 10 Sep 2026Moldova Accuses Russia of Deliberate Border StrikeUkrinform · 9 Sep 2026Border crossing with Moldova suspended after Russian drone attack, people killed and injured
Long-Range Energy Strikes
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck the Novy Urengoy Gas Condensate Treatment Plant in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug over 3,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, targeting a facility that processes 19.5 million tons of fuel annually for Russian military logistics. Ukrainian forces also attacked oil infrastructure at the Caspian Sea port of Makhachkala in Dagestan, which serves as an entry hub for Iranian drones, while sea drones struck the Sochi waterfront in Krasnodar Krai, injuring 28 people. Meduza.io · 9 Sep 2026Ukrainian drone attack on Russian port city kills four. Fire reported at port.The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 9 Sep 2026Ukraine war latest: Ukraine launches record-breaking deep strike on gas facility in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets region, over 3,000 km from borderMeduza.io · 10 Sep 2026Ukrainian sea drones strike Sochi waterfront, injuring nearly 30. Photos and videos from the scene.
Cross-Border Transit Attacks
Russian strike drones repeatedly hit the Starokozache international road border crossing between Ukraine and Moldova in Odesa Oblast, killing two civilians and causing Moldova to temporarily close its airspace. The Moldovan Foreign Ministry formally rejected Russian defense ministry assertions that the Starokozache checkpoint was used to transport military cargo into Ukraine. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 9 Sep 2026Moldovan President Sandu condemns Russian drone strike on border crossing point that killed two, injured threeKyiv Post · 10 Sep 2026Moldova Accuses Russia of Deliberate Border StrikeUkrinform · 9 Sep 2026Border crossing with Moldova suspended after Russian drone attack, people killed and injured
Urban Drone Barrages
Russian forces launched jet-powered drones against Kyiv, hitting residential buildings in Darnytskyi and Dniprovskyi districts, damaging a gas station in Holosiivskyi district, and killing one civilian while injuring 16 others. Russian strikes also hit a closed shopping center in Sumy for a second consecutive day, struck residential districts in Kramatorsk injuring 19 people, and killed two Azerbaijani seafarers aboard a cargo vessel in the Black Sea. Ukrinform · 10 Sep 2026Russian forces strike Dnipro again, leaving people killed and injuredUkrainska Pravda · 10 Sep 2026Russians attack Kyiv Oblast: one killed, two injuredUkrainska Pravda · 10 Sep 2026Russian forces attack Kramatorsk: number injured rises to 19, including infant – photos
Assessment
Full-scale interstate warfare continues as Ukrainian forces conduct deep long-range strikes against Russian strategic energy facilities and naval ports while Russian forces maintain daily drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian cities, commercial facilities, and border infrastructure.
- 2026-09-10
Ukrainian forces conduct record 3,000-kilometer strike on a Siberian gas plant.
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck the Novy Urengoy Gas Condensate Treatment Plant in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, marking Kyiv's deepest strike of the war. The facility processes 19.5 million tons of crude oil and natural gas annually to supply fuel for Russian military operations.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
4 more
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 95/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 95/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.