← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- China's PLA Eastern Theater Command equipped its 71st Group Army with PLZ-05 155mm self-propelled howitzers opposite the Taiwan Strait. News - South China Morning Post · 9 Sep 2026Beijing boosts Taiwan-facing firepower with brigade-level 155mm howitzer deployment
- Former U.S. defense official Jedidiah Royal characterized Taiwan's NT$240 billion drone budget as insufficient to deter Chinese aggression. Taipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Taiwan not on right drone track: ex-official
- Taiwan Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim advocated building multilayered air defenses and an independent non-red drone supply chain. Taipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Taiwan developing multilayered defense
- Japan acquired a former Nippon Steel facility to establish a military hub sustaining long-term operations in potential regional conflicts. China - South China Morning Post · 8 Sep 2026How Japan is digging in to deter – and withstand – a conflict over Taiwan
- Stanford scholar Oriana Skylar Mastro stated that Taiwan's military build-up primarily signals defense commitment to Washington rather than Beijing. Taipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Taiwan’s defense efforts sending signal to US, not China, security expert says
Cross-Strait Artillery Modernization
China's PLA Eastern Theater Command transitioned the 71st Group Army from 122mm artillery to PLZ-05 155mm self-propelled howitzers. The heavy combined-arms brigade completed initial live-fire trials with the longer-range system, enhancing fire support capabilities directly opposite Taiwan. News - South China Morning Post · 9 Sep 2026Beijing boosts Taiwan-facing firepower with brigade-level 155mm howitzer deployment
Taiwan Asymmetric Drone Procurement
Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim called at the Taipei Security Dialogue for non-red drone supply chains and integrated air defense to counter potential Chinese blockades. Former U.S. defense official Jedidiah Royal warned at the same forum that Taiwan's NT$240 billion drone allocation is insufficient to match Chinese production rates. Taipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Taiwan not on right drone track: ex-officialTaipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Notes from Central Taiwan: Localize Taiwan’s drone capabilitiesTaipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Taiwan developing multilayered defense
Japanese Rear-Area Logistics
Japan purchased a former Nippon Steel facility to establish a military logistics hub intended to support long-term operational endurance during potential Taiwan Strait contingencies. Personnel shortages and fiscal constraints, however, continue to limit the speed of Tokyo's broader defense expansion. News - South China Morning Post · 9 Sep 2026Japan’s China-facing military build-up confronts labour, budget and political limitsChina - South China Morning Post · 8 Sep 2026How Japan is digging in to deter – and withstand – a conflict over Taiwan
Cyber Security and Deterrence Signaling
Evaluation of a July AI cyberattack against Taiwanese public networks underscored critical infrastructure vulnerabilities that Chinese operators could exploit alongside formal blockades. At the Taipei Security Dialogue, Stanford scholar Oriana Skylar Mastro noted that Taiwan's military preparations primarily serve to reassure Washington rather than deter Beijing. Taipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Taiwan’s defense efforts sending signal to US, not China, security expert saysThe Diplomat · 8 Sep 2026Is China Really a Cyber Threat to Taiwan?
Assessment
Tactical artillery upgrades, Japanese base acquisition, and Taiwanese asymmetric defense debates demonstrate persistent force preparation across the region without indicating an imminent military crisis.
- 2026-09-04
Top US and Chinese theater commanders meet to restore military communications
PLA Eastern Theater Command General Yang Zhibin met U.S. Admiral Samuel Paparo in Canada to restore senior military communication channels.
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
3 more
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.