← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Yemen War & Houthi Attacks
Saudi – Houthis conflict
- Ansar Allah fighters seized Mayun Island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait following the withdrawal of government-aligned forces. World news | The Guardian · 11 Sep 2026Iran’s Houthi allies capture strategic island on vital oil shipping routeAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 11 Sep 2026Houthis control key shipping route after gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast
- Saudi warplanes executed two airstrikes targeting Ansar Allah positions at Mocha Airport along Yemen's western coast. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 11 Sep 2026Houthis claim 2 Saudi airstrikes hit Mokha airport in southwestern YemenYemen Online · 11 Sep 2026[Houthi Media Reports 2 Saudi Airstrikes on Mocha Airport in Yemen
- Iranian officials requested Ansar Allah to escalate cross-border attacks against Saudi Arabia in exchange for increased military funding. Yemen Online · 11 Sep 2026[Iran Asked the Houthis to Escalate Attacks Against Saudi Arabia
- United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported an attack against an unnamed vessel transiting waters southwest of Mukalla. Yemen Online · 10 Sep 2026[UKMTO : Reports Attack on Vessel Southwest of Yemen’s Mukalla
- Ansar Allah artillery shelling struck displaced civilian families at Harib Junction in Marib, killing three children. Yemen Online · 10 Sep 2026[3 Children Killed in Shelling on Displaced Families Gathering in Yemen's Marib
Bab al-Mandeb Control
Ansar Allah forces expanded control over the southern Red Sea maritime corridor by occupying Mayun Island and coastal positions at Dhubab following the retreat of government units. Ansar Allah leadership declared that the Bab al-Mandeb Strait remains open to commercial shipping with the explicit exception of Saudi oil tankers. World news | The Guardian · 11 Sep 2026Iran’s Houthi allies capture strategic island on vital oil shipping routeAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 11 Sep 2026Houthis control key shipping route after gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast© AP · 11 Sep 2026Middle East live: Yemen’s Houthis say Bab al-Mandab strait is 'safe for all' except Saudi Arabia
Mocha Airport Airstrikes
Saudi coalition warplanes launched two airstrikes against Ansar Allah positions and infrastructure at Mocha Airport in southwestern Yemen. The strikes targeted Houthi formations along the newly captured coastal belt. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 11 Sep 2026Houthis claim 2 Saudi airstrikes hit Mokha airport in southwestern YemenYemen Online · 11 Sep 2026[Houthi Media Reports 2 Saudi Airstrikes on Mocha Airport in Yemen
Iranian Escalation Directives
Iranian officials instructed Ansar Allah commanders to intensify cross-border missile and drone strikes targeting Saudi Arabian territory, offering additional financial support and advanced weaponry. United States President Donald Trump declined a request from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for direct American military strikes against Ansar Allah targets in Yemen. Yemen Online · 11 Sep 2026[Iran Asked the Houthis to Escalate Attacks Against Saudi Arabia© AP · 11 Sep 2026Middle East live: Yemen’s Houthis say Bab al-Mandab strait is 'safe for all' except Saudi Arabia
Internal Frontlines
Ansar Allah artillery shelling hit a gathering of displaced civilians at Harib Junction in Marib province, killing three children and wounding six others. Yemeni government forces reported shooting down five Ansar Allah reconnaissance drones over northern frontlines. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 11 Sep 2026Yemeni army says it downed 5 Houthi drones in northern YemenYemen Online · 10 Sep 2026[3 Children Killed in Shelling on Displaced Families Gathering in Yemen's Marib
Assessment
Ansar Allah's physical seizure of Mayun Island and coastal choke points along the Bab al-Mandeb Strait significantly elevates the threat to Red Sea oil transit and dramatically increases the probability of expanded direct military engagement between Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces.
- 2026-09-11
Ansar Allah forces seize Mayun Island, expanding control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
Houthi fighters occupied Mayun Island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait following the retreat of government-aligned forces. The positioning provides Ansar Allah with direct physical control over the southern Red Sea shipping corridor.
- 2026-09-10
Ansar Allah forces capture the strategic Red Sea port city of Mocha.
Ansar Allah fighters seized the port city of Mocha and advanced along Yemen's western coast, driving civilian displacement toward Aden and drawing heavy Saudi-led airstrikes.
- 2026-09-08
Ansar Allah launched cross-border missile and drone strikes against Saudi energy facilities and southern cities.
Ansar Allah targeted Saudi Aramco oil installations, economic sites, and military bases across Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan, and Najran with dozens of drones and ballistic missiles. The attacks injured 73 civilians and ignited operational fires at energy sites, prompting Saudi Arabia to announce military retaliation.
4 more
- 2026-09-06
Yemeni government forces recapture Hays district from Ansar Allah
Yemeni government troops recaptured Hays district following armed clashes that killed over 60 combatants.
- 2026-09-05
Yemeni government warplanes conduct airstrikes against Ansar Allah positions in Taiz and Hodeidah.
Yemeni government aircraft executed 15 airstrikes targeting Ansar Allah troop concentrations, vehicles, and combat positions in Hays, al-Kadha, and Maqbanah. The operations mark the first deployment of government airpower since coastal fighting escalated.
- 2026-09-02
Ansar Allah establishes military cooperation pact with al-Shabaab
Reports revealed structured cooperation between Ansar Allah and Somalia's al-Shabaab militia involving drone technology transfers and fighter training across the Gulf of Aden.
- 2026-09-01
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan activate Makkah Joint Defense Agreement
The three nations established a General Secretariat in Riyadh to operationalize the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war in Yemen?
Not a declared war between states. The armed confrontation is between the Houthi movement and the Saudi-led coalition and the Yemeni government, and it reaches shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait. Fighting has continued through repeated truces without a settlement. Legally a non-international armed conflict — the Houthis against Yemen's government — internationalized by Saudi and Emirati involvement. The index reads 76/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Saudi and Houthis situation right now?
The index reads 76/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Saudi and Houthis risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.