← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning lodged formal diplomatic protests against Italy and the European Union over Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim's visit. News - South China Morning Post · 11 Sep 2026Beijing lodges diplomatic protests over Taiwan official’s visit to Italy
- The PLA 71st Group Army completed live-fire trials after equipping a heavy combined-arms brigade with PLZ-05 155mm self-propelled howitzers. News - South China Morning Post · 9 Sep 2026Beijing boosts Taiwan-facing firepower with brigade-level 155mm howitzer deployment
- The PLA Navy deployed an experimental ship to conduct sea trials testing a 155mm naval gun. News - South China Morning Post · 9 Sep 2026Beijing boosts Taiwan-facing firepower with brigade-level 155mm howitzer deployment
- Japan purchased a former Nippon Steel facility to establish a military logistics hub intended for regional operational endurance. China - South China Morning Post · 8 Sep 2026How Japan is digging in to deter – and withstand – a conflict over Taiwan
- Suspected Chinese cyber operators targeted Taiwanese government and private networks in July using artificial intelligence capabilities. The Diplomat · 8 Sep 2026Is China Really a Cyber Threat to Taiwan?
European Diplomatic Friction
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning issued formal diplomatic protests to Italy and the European Union following Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim's attendance at an international forum in Italy. Beijing condemned the visit as an attempt to seek independence, while reiterating its opposition to official foreign exchanges with Taiwanese leaders. News - South China Morning Post · 11 Sep 2026Beijing lodges diplomatic protests over Taiwan official’s visit to Italy
Cross-Strait Artillery Modernization
The PLA Eastern Theater Command upgraded the 71st Group Army's heavy combined-arms brigade from 122mm artillery to PLZ-05 155mm self-propelled howitzers, completing initial live-fire trials opposite Taiwan. Concurrently, the PLA Navy conducted sea trials for an experimental vessel fitted with a 155mm naval gun to evaluate extended-range naval gunfire support. News - South China Morning Post · 9 Sep 2026Beijing boosts Taiwan-facing firepower with brigade-level 155mm howitzer deployment
Japanese Logistics Infrastructure
Japan acquired a former Nippon Steel facility to construct a military logistics hub designed to support operational endurance during a Taiwan Strait contingency. Structural workforce shortages, fiscal limits, and political constraints continue to slow Tokyo's overall defense expansion timeline. News - South China Morning Post · 9 Sep 2026Japan’s China-facing military build-up confronts labour, budget and political limitsChina - South China Morning Post · 8 Sep 2026How Japan is digging in to deter – and withstand – a conflict over Taiwan
Cyber Vulnerability Assessment
Evaluation of a July AI-driven cyberattack against Taiwanese government and commercial networks highlighted critical infrastructure vulnerabilities. Technical analysis indicates Chinese cyber operations pose existential risks to Taiwanese infrastructure primarily if executed alongside a blockade or invasion. The Diplomat · 8 Sep 2026Is China Really a Cyber Threat to Taiwan?
Assessment
Diplomatic protests over official travel and steady PLA artillery upgrades maintain elevated political and military tension without indicating an imminent transition to active conflict.
- 2026-09-04
Top US and Chinese theater commanders meet to restore military communications
PLA Eastern Theater Command General Yang Zhibin met U.S. Admiral Samuel Paparo in Canada to restore senior military communication channels.
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
3 more
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.