← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Ukrainian drones struck the Uralchem Azot chemical plant in Berezniki, Perm Krai. Ukrainska Pravda · 11 Sep 2026Drones attack chemical plant in Russia's Perm Krai – videoKyiv Post · 11 Sep 2026Russian Chemical Giant’s Plant in Perm Targeted in Ukrainian Drone Strike
- Russian jet-powered drones struck Ukrnafta petrol stations across Kyiv, killing two civilians. Ukrainska Pravda · 11 Sep 2026Russia attacks Kyiv with drones: petrol stations hit, casualties reportedUkrainska Pravda · 11 Sep 2026Russian attack on petrol station in Kyiv kills two people – mayorUkrinform · 11 Sep 2026Kyiv attack toll rises to 12 casualties, with two people killed
- Ukrainian Long Neptune cruise missiles struck Russian Black Sea Fleet warships in Novorossiysk. Naval News · 11 Sep 2026Long Neptune Strike: Ukraine’s New Cruise Missile Cripples Russian Warships in Novorossiysk
- Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles struck the Volgogradpromproekt chemical plant in Volgograd. Ukrainska Pravda · 11 Sep 2026Ukraine's Fire Point confirms attack on Ozon in Russia's Saratov and reports Flamingo strike in Volgograd
- Russian forces dropped FAB-250 aerial bombs on residential districts in Sloviansk, killing one civilian. Ukrainska Pravda · 11 Sep 2026Russian forces launch airstrike on Sloviansk: man killed, woman seriously injured
Deep Industrial Interdiction
Ukrainian forces expanded long-range strategic operations to target Russian military-industrial supply chains over 1,500 kilometers from the border. Attacks using FP-1 drones and FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles struck the Uralchem Azot and Metafrax facilities in Perm Krai alongside the Volgogradpromproekt plant in Volgograd to disrupt raw explosive precursor manufacturing. These deep strikes aimed at severing chemical feedstocks for Russian munitions production also targeted an Ozon logistics hub in Saratov to degrade regional supply warehousing. Ukrainska Pravda · 11 Sep 2026Drones attack chemical plant in Russia's Perm Krai – videoUkrainska Pravda · 11 Sep 2026Ukraine's Fire Point confirms attack on Ozon in Russia's Saratov and reports Flamingo strike in VolgogradKyiv Post · 11 Sep 2026Russian Chemical Giant’s Plant in Perm Targeted in Ukrainian Drone Strike
Kyiv Fuel Grid Attacks
Russian operations shifted focus toward destroying Ukrainian civilian retail fuel networks in major urban centers. Russian forces deployed jet-powered drones against Ukrnafta petrol stations in Kyiv to induce urban fuel deficits and disrupt civilian transport. Simultaneous aerial strikes hit commercial facilities in Pavlohrad and residential areas in Sloviansk, continuing a pattern of degrading municipal infrastructure and public access to fuel. Ukrainska Pravda · 11 Sep 2026Russian forces launch airstrike on Sloviansk: man killed, woman seriously injuredUkrainska Pravda · 11 Sep 2026Russia attacks Kyiv with drones: petrol stations hit, casualties reportedUkrainska Pravda · 11 Sep 2026"Another birthday": army officer Olena Rij injured during Russian attack on Pavlohrad
Indigenous Ballistic Missile Development
Ukrainian defense contractor Fire Point completed preliminary flight testing for the FP-7 tactical ballistic missile. The weapon possesses a 200-kilometer range and a 150-kilogram warhead, providing short-range operational artillery units with organic strike options against tactical military targets without reliance on Western usage constraints. Kyiv Post · 11 Sep 2026‘Weeks, Not Months’: Ukraine’s FP-7 Ballistic Missile Could Soon Strike Russia
Novorossiysk Naval Operations
Ukrainian naval forces utilized Long Neptune cruise missiles against Russian Black Sea Fleet units stationed at Novorossiysk. The strike directly damaged naval vessels capable of firing Kalibr land-attack cruise missiles, diminishing Russia's sea-based missile capacity against Ukrainian rear targets. Naval News · 11 Sep 2026Long Neptune Strike: Ukraine’s New Cruise Missile Cripples Russian Warships in Novorossiysk
Assessment
Open interstate war continues with Ukrainian forces conducting long-range strikes against Russian defense-industrial chemical plants and naval assets and Russian forces executing daily bombardments against Ukrainian municipal fuel distribution and residential infrastructure.
- 2026-09-10
Ukrainian forces conduct record 3,000-kilometer strike on a Siberian gas plant.
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck the Novy Urengoy Gas Condensate Treatment Plant in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, marking Kyiv's deepest strike of the war. The facility processes 19.5 million tons of crude oil and natural gas annually to supply fuel for Russian military operations.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
4 more
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 95/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 95/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.