← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- Iranian missile strikes reportedly damaged U.S. military aircraft stationed at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Iran International · 10 Sep 2026US warplanes damaged in Iran strikes on Jordan baseAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 10 Sep 2026Why is Iran bombing Jordan’s Al-Azraq base?
- Iranian naval forces reportedly seized a U.S. uncrewed surface vessel near the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 10 Sep 2026Iran claims to have captured a US ‘sail drone’ near Hormuz StraitAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 10 Sep 2026Iran war live: IRGC attacks US unmanned vessel in Hormuz; two ships hit
- Satellite imagery detected oil slicks off the Iranian coast following U.S. airstrikes against Iranian-linked crude oil tankers. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 10 Sep 2026Likely oil slicks in Strait of Hormuz after US tanker strikes: experts
- The United States sanctioned financial networks operating in Iraq, Lebanon, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates to curb Iranian proxy financing. Iran International · 10 Sep 2026US targets Iran-linked networks as sanctions campaign expands
- Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrived in India for the BRICS summit to advocate non-dollar trade settlement mechanisms. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 11 Sep 2026India welcomes Russia, Iran leaders for BRICS summit overshadowed by warTehran Times · 11 Sep 2026Iran pushes for local currencies, alternative payment systems to counter sanctions in BRICS summitAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 10 Sep 2026Putin lands in India for BRICs summit, shadowed by Iran and Ukraine wars
Jordan Air Base Targeting
Iranian missile strikes damaged U.S. military aircraft at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base near Al-Azraq in Jordan. Iranian forces targeted the facility due to its function as a central U.S. operational hub. Iran International · 10 Sep 2026US warplanes damaged in Iran strikes on Jordan baseAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 10 Sep 2026Why is Iran bombing Jordan’s Al-Azraq base?
Hormuz Maritime Operations
Iranian naval forces targeted a U.S. uncrewed surface vessel near the Strait of Hormuz. IRGC naval units also claimed the capture of a U.S. sail drone in the waterway. Satellite imagery confirmed oil slicks off the Iranian coast following U.S. airstrikes that destroyed five Iranian-linked crude oil tankers. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 10 Sep 2026Iran claims to have captured a US ‘sail drone’ near Hormuz StraitAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 10 Sep 2026Likely oil slicks in Strait of Hormuz after US tanker strikes: expertsAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 10 Sep 2026Iran war live: IRGC attacks US unmanned vessel in Hormuz; two ships hit
BRICS Economic Alignment
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the BRICS summit in New Delhi. Tehran urged member states to establish local-currency payment channels to bypass U.S. financial sanctions. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 11 Sep 2026India welcomes Russia, Iran leaders for BRICS summit overshadowed by warTehran Times · 11 Sep 2026Iran pushes for local currencies, alternative payment systems to counter sanctions in BRICS summitAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 10 Sep 2026Putin lands in India for BRICs summit, shadowed by Iran and Ukraine wars
Deep Underground Nuclear Sites
Pentagon defense innovation agencies accelerated tests on heavy munitions aimed at penetrating the Pickaxe Mountain site. Iranian political figures simultaneously urged nuclear expansion to counter U.S. campaign pressure. Iran International · 10 Sep 2026Iran’s hardliners bet on escalation as options narrowAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 10 Sep 2026Could Iran’s nuclear ambitions harden as war escalates?AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 10 Sep 2026Iran’s Pickaxe mountain tests limits of Trump’s military options
Assessment
Sustained Iranian strikes on regional military bases and ongoing maritime friction around the Strait of Hormuz keep regional hostilities acute with no immediate diplomatic consensus.
- 2026-09-10
IAEA Board of Governors reports Iran to UN Security Council for non-compliance.
The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for non-proliferation non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The action follows over a year of denied IAEA inspector access to Iranian nuclear installations.
- 2026-09-09
U.S. forces destroy five Iranian oil tankers following IRGC missile attacks on warships
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC forces launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian forces retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-09-08
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
4 more
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.