← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- Two New Zealand naval vessels completed a transit through international waters in the Taiwan Strait. Taipei Times · 22 Sep 2026Two New Zealand navy ships transit Taiwan Strait
- Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration launched a Hsiung Feng III supersonic anti-ship missile during joint defensive exercises. News - South China Morning Post · 22 Sep 2026Taiwan coastguard’s rare missile firing reveals deepening links with navy
- Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration transferred a decommissioned 500-tonne patrol vessel to the Philippine Coast Guard. Taipei Times · 23 Sep 2026Taiwan donates patrol vessel to the Philippines, sources say
- A People's Liberation Army drone conducted a surveillance flight off Taitung County during military drills inspected by President Lai Ching-te. Taipei Times · 23 Sep 2026Taiwan donates patrol vessel to the Philippines, sources sayTaipei Times · 22 Sep 2026Two New Zealand navy ships transit Taiwan Strait
- Taiwan's indigenous submarine Hai Kun completed its 15th submerged sea trial ahead of potential navy delivery. Taipei Times · 22 Sep 2026Taiwan-built sub could reach navy next month
High-Level Bilateral Diplomacy
Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to urge United States President Donald Trump to suspend arms sales to Taiwan under the 1982 Joint Communiqué during an upcoming summit in Washington, offer cooperation on Middle East stability involving Iran in exchange, and prompt the Trump administration to request Taiwanese officials curtail visits to Washington research institutions while a $14 billion defense package remains pending approval. Taipei Times · 23 Sep 2026Xi expected to raise Taiwan during Trump-Xi summit: U.S. scholarsNews - South China Morning Post · 22 Sep 2026Taiwan’s opposition casts doubt on ‘rock solid’ US ties ahead of Xi-Trump summitLatest articles - The Japan Times · 22 Sep 2026China’s Xi expected to press Trump to halt Taiwan arms sales under 1982 agreement
Taiwan Defense Readiness
Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration launched Hsiung Feng III supersonic and Hsiung Feng II subsonic anti-ship missiles during joint maneuvers with Taiwan's armed forces, while Taiwan's first indigenous submarine, Hai Kun, completed its 15th submerged sea trial near Kaohsiung ahead of expected delivery to the Republic of China Navy next month. News - South China Morning Post · 22 Sep 2026Taiwan coastguard’s rare missile firing reveals deepening links with navyTaipei Times · 22 Sep 2026Taiwan-built sub could reach navy next month
Regional Maritime Activity
Two New Zealand Royal Navy vessels completed a transit through international waters in the Taiwan Strait, and Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration transferred a decommissioned 500-tonne Kinmen-class patrol craft to the Philippine Coast Guard at the Port of Kaohsiung. Taipei Times · 23 Sep 2026Taiwan donates patrol vessel to the Philippines, sources sayTaipei Times · 22 Sep 2026Two New Zealand navy ships transit Taiwan Strait
PLA Operations and Governance
A People's Liberation Army drone performed a surveillance flight off Taitung County during precision-strike drills inspected by Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te in Pingtung County, while the Chinese Communist Party Politburo confirmed the expulsion of former Central Military Commission vice-chairman Zhang Youxia and former Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli over disloyalty charges. News - South China Morning Post · 21 Sep 2026Former top PLA generals expelled from Communist Party for factionalism and disloyaltyTaipei Times · 23 Sep 2026Taiwan donates patrol vessel to the Philippines, sources sayTaipei Times · 22 Sep 2026Two New Zealand navy ships transit Taiwan Strait
Assessment
U.S.-China summit preparations and diplomatic maneuvering over weapons packages continue alongside routine military drills and foreign strait transits without indicators of imminent escalation or force concentration.
- 2026-09-22
Taiwan transfers decommissioned coast guard vessel to the Philippines
Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration transferred a decommissioned 500-tonne patrol vessel to the Philippine Coast Guard.
- 2026-09-21
Royal New Zealand Navy vessels transit the Taiwan Strait
Royal New Zealand Navy frigate HMNZS Te Mana and replenishment tanker HMNZS Aotearoa transited the Taiwan Strait.
- 2026-09-16
Conservative Genta Koja wins Okinawa gubernatorial election
Conservative candidate Genta Koja defeated incumbent Denny Tamaki in Okinawa's gubernatorial election, ending twelve years of opposition to Japanese defense expansion.
4 more
- 2026-09-04
Top US and Chinese theater commanders meet to restore military communications
PLA Eastern Theater Command General Yang Zhibin met U.S. Admiral Samuel Paparo in Canada to restore senior military communication channels.
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21.7/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21.7/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.