← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan advocated for resolving the Kashmir issue through United Nations-guided dialogue during his General Assembly speech. Times of India · 22 Sep 2026‘Kashmir issue should be addressed through dialogue’: Turkey's Erdogan at UNGA
- Pakistani military forces conducted cross-border airstrikes against Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan targets in Afghanistan's Kunar province. FDD's Long War Journal · 21 Sep 2026Pakistan conducts airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan in retaliation for terrorist attacksDawn - Home · 21 Sep 2026Pakistan carries out 'calibrated’ airstrikes against terrorist targets in border region with AfghanistanAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 21 Sep 2026Afghanistan says three killed in Pakistani air attacks
- Pakistani authorities deployed shipping containers and issued hospital alerts across Islamabad ahead of planned opposition political demonstrations. Dawn - Home · 22 Sep 2026IHC summons Islamabad SSP in petition alleging harassment of PTI leaders, raids on their homesTimes of India · 22 Sep 2026'Mass casualty' alert? Pakistan hospitals clear beds ahead of PTI protestDawn - Home · 22 Sep 2026Islamabad, Rawalpindi brace for protest as security preparations intensify
- United States lawmakers passed legislation authorizing tariffs up to 100 percent on nations purchasing Russian petroleum products. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 21 Sep 2026100% U.S. tariff threat: Can India’s new trade deals reduce its dependence on America?
- Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir met with French defense officials in Rawalpindi to review bilateral security cooperation. Dawn - Home · 22 Sep 2026CDF reaffirms Pakistan's commitment to bolster defence, security cooperation with France
Multilateral Diplomacy
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan advocated for addressing the Kashmir dispute through UN-chartered dialogue during his United Nations General Assembly address. Indian diplomatic doctrine holds that Jammu and Kashmir is an integral national territory and rejects third-party mediation. Separately, former US President Donald Trump claimed during UN engagements to have facilitated previous de-escalation between New Delhi and Islamabad. NDTV News Search Records Found 1000 · 22 Sep 2026In UN Address, Trump Claims He Settled India-Pakistan ConflictTimes of India · 22 Sep 2026‘Kashmir issue should be addressed through dialogue’: Turkey's Erdogan at UNGADawn - Home · 21 Sep 2026PM Shehbaz arrives in New York to present Pakistan's position on regional, global security at UNGA
Afghan Border Engagement
Pakistani armed forces executed airstrikes targeting Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan positions in Afghanistan's Kunar province following a suicide bombing in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Afghan Taliban officials reported three civilian fatalities and warned of retaliation, while Pakistani authorities reported killing 28 militants in three precision strikes. FDD's Long War Journal · 21 Sep 2026Pakistan conducts airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan in retaliation for terrorist attacksDawn - Home · 21 Sep 2026Pakistan carries out 'calibrated’ airstrikes against terrorist targets in border region with AfghanistanAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 21 Sep 2026Afghanistan says three killed in Pakistani air attacks
Pakistani Domestic Security
Islamabad police erected over 2,000 shipping containers at city entry points and ordered capital hospitals to clear surgical capacity ahead of planned Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf rallies. The security preparations respond to calls by opposition leadership for mass demonstrations demanding the release of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Dawn - Home · 22 Sep 2026IHC summons Islamabad SSP in petition alleging harassment of PTI leaders, raids on their homesTimes of India · 22 Sep 2026'Mass casualty' alert? Pakistan hospitals clear beds ahead of PTI protestDawn - Home · 22 Sep 2026Islamabad, Rawalpindi brace for protest as security preparations intensify
Defense Procurement and Trade
United States legislation authorizing tariffs up to 100 percent on buyers of Russian crude oil increases trade pressure on Indian energy imports. In response to external trade measures, Indian defense planners continue expanding domestic warship construction and military manufacturing to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 21 Sep 2026100% U.S. tariff threat: Can India’s new trade deals reduce its dependence on America?Times of India · 21 Sep 2026Beyond 'Make in India': How India is trying to build a military it can truly call its own
Assessment
Direct kinetic engagements between Indian and Pakistani armed forces along the Line of Control remain halted under the May 2025 ceasefire understanding.
- 2026-09-16
Pakistani and Indian warships collide during maneuvers in Arabian Sea
A Pakistani naval vessel collided with an Indian Navy warship during high-speed maneuvers in international waters in the Northern Arabian Sea. India summoned Pakistan's chargé d'affaires to protest the collision as a bilateral breach.
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
4 more
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
- 2026-08-12
India designates Attari as e-visa entry point while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani travelers
India updated its e-visa immigration framework to include eleven new entry points, including the Attari land crossing on the Pakistan border. Officials emphasized that travel restrictions and strict vetting for Pakistani nationals remain in effect following the April 2025 diplomatic measures.
- 2026-08-12
Indian security forces arrest suspected Pakistani operative in West Bengal near border
West Bengal Special Task Force officers detained a suspected Pakistani national carrying forged Indian identification documents near the Bangladesh border. Authorities reported the individual had resided illegally in India and initiated investigations into potential intelligence links.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 15.2/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 15.2/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.