← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Ukrainian long-range drones struck the Kuibyshev oil refinery in Samara Oblast, causing a fire and disrupting processing operations. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 22 Sep 2026Ukraine strikes Russian drone storage and launch site in Oryol Oblast, damages 5 launchersMeduza.io · 22 Sep 2026Ukrainian drones attack Samara as fire is reported at Kuybyshev oil refinery, one of the Volga region’s largest
- Russian ballistic missiles hit the Interpipe steel manufacturing plant in Dnipro, killing four employees and halting production. Ukrainska Pravda · 22 Sep 2026Russia attacks Interpipe facility in Dnipro: four killed, seven injuredUkrainska Pravda · 21 Sep 2026Russian forces attack Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih and Pavlohrad with ballistic missiles
- Ukrainian drone strikes forced the complete halt of crude processing at Gazprom Neft's Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya. Kyiv Post · 21 Sep 2026Moscow Oil Refinery Halts Crude Processing After Sunday’s Drone StrikeThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 21 Sep 2026Ukraine war latest: Russia's oil refining capacity falls as damage from Moscow strikes sets in
- Russian forces launched over 200 drones and missiles targeting infrastructure across Kyiv, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Pavlohrad. Meduza.io · 22 Sep 2026Russia strikes four Ukrainian cities with missiles and drones. Regional officials say three people were killed in Dnipro, and one may be trapped under rubble.Ukrinform · 22 Sep 2026ADF down Kalibr missile, eight Banderols, 177 drones in overnight Russian attack on Ukraine
- United States President Donald Trump met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in New York to discuss peace negotiations and air defense manufacturing. Meduza.io · 22 Sep 2026Trump says talks in NYC with Zelensky will cover Russia–Ukraine negotiations and Patriot interceptor production in Ukraine
Refinery and Infrastructure Strikes
Ukrainian long-range drone operations targeted Russian energy facilities funding Moscow's military campaign, causing a fire at the Kuibyshev refinery in Samara Oblast and forcing Gazprom Neft to halt crude processing at its Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya. Ukraine's General Staff reported that the deep-strike campaign has disabled 45 percent of Russia's total refining capacity, leading to domestic fuel shortages. Russian forces directed ballistic missiles and jet-powered attack drones against Ukrainian urban centers and commercial infrastructure, hitting Interpipe's industrial plant in Dnipro and the Kromberg & Schubert electrical facility in Zhytomyr alongside residential neighborhoods in Kyiv and Sloviansk. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 22 Sep 2026Ukraine strikes Russian drone storage and launch site in Oryol Oblast, damages 5 launchersUkrainska Pravda · 22 Sep 2026Russia attacks Interpipe facility in Dnipro: four killed, seven injuredKyiv Post · 21 Sep 2026Moscow Oil Refinery Halts Crude Processing After Sunday’s Drone Strike
Diplomatic Talks and Sanctions Pressure
United States President Donald Trump met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, holding discussions focused on potential peace negotiations, Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, and domestic production of Patriot air defense interceptors in Ukraine. Concurrently, President Zelensky publicly criticized European Union proposals pushed by France and Slovakia to remove Russian oligarchs Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman from sanctions lists, warning that delistings would undermine international pressure on Moscow while missile strikes continue. Kyiv Post · 22 Sep 2026Zelensky Condemns Delistings of Russian Oligarchs in Western SanctionsMeduza.io · 22 Sep 2026Trump says talks in NYC with Zelensky will cover Russia–Ukraine negotiations and Patriot interceptor production in UkraineThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 22 Sep 2026Who are Usmanov and Fridman, the Russian oligarchs France helped remove from the EU sanctions list?
Defense Procurement and Border Controls
The United States Army finalized a $10.64 million contract with Skyeton to procure Ukrainian-designed Raybird reconnaissance drones for testing at Redstone Arsenal in Alabama, marking Ukraine's first major military drone export to the US military. In border developments, Russia's Federal Security Service implemented movement and access restrictions in the Kingisepp and Slantsy districts of Leningrad Oblast near the Estonian border, citing security concerns and upcoming mobilization preparations following Russian parliamentary elections. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 22 Sep 2026Russia imposes restrictions near Estonian border amid mobilization concernsKyiv Post · 22 Sep 2026US Army Acquires Long-Range Ukrainian Surveillance Drones in $10.6m DealKyiv Post · 21 Sep 2026US Army Buys Battle-Tested Ukraine Observation Drone
Assessment
Open interstate war continues across strategic and operational domains with sustained Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian refining infrastructure.
- 2026-09-22
US President Donald Trump meets Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York
United States President Donald Trump met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York to discuss peace negotiations and air defense manufacturing.
- 2026-09-21
Ukraine debuts Pelican ballistic missile in strikes on Russian facilities
Ukrainian long-range strikes deployed the new Pelican ballistic missile against industrial and oil refining facilities in Russia's Moscow and Voronezh regions.
- 2026-09-16
Ukrainian drone strike kills Russian Major General Anton Grunis
A Ukrainian drone strike killed Russian Major General Anton Grunis in occupied Donetsk Oblast.
4 more
- 2026-09-10
Ukrainian forces conduct record 3,000-kilometer strike on a Siberian gas plant.
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck the Novy Urengoy Gas Condensate Treatment Plant in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, marking Kyiv's deepest strike of the war. The facility processes 19.5 million tons of crude oil and natural gas annually to supply fuel for Russian military operations.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 95.6/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 95.6/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.