← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- U.S. forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island to prevent suspected sea-mining operations in the Strait of Hormuz. World news | The Guardian · 30 Aug 2026US strikes Iranian launchers on Larak island amid strait of Hormuz tensions© Atta Kenare, AFP · 30 Aug 2026US forces strike Iranian launchers on Larak island in Strait of Hormuz
- Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces launched retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. military positions in Jordan. Latest news from the Middle East, daily international news reports - France 24 · 31 Aug 2026US renews attack on Iran while threatening financial sanctions on Tehran alliesBBC News · 30 Aug 2026US strikes Iranian launchers on Larak Island in first known attack in weeks
- Air defense forces of the United Arab Emirates intercepted an incoming Iranian drone over UAE territorial waters. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 31 Aug 2026UAE intercepts drone after US and Iran exchange attacks
- The U.S. Department of the Treasury introduced Operation Economic Outcast sanctions against third-country financial institutions handling Iranian assets. Latest news from the Middle East, daily international news reports - France 24 · 31 Aug 2026US renews attack on Iran while threatening financial sanctions on Tehran alliesAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 30 Aug 2026US vows to keep economic pressure on Iran as G20 finance talks begin
- Commercial tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz decreased to five vessels per day amid renewed tactical strike risks. © US Navy via Reuters · 30 Aug 2026Middle East Live: US strikes Iran for first time in a month as Tehran retaliates against Jordan base
Strait of Hormuz Escalation
Direct U.S. airstrikes against Iranian Revolutionary Guard launcher positions on Larak Island ended a four-week operational lull in maritime counter-mine engagements. U.S. Central Command cited IRGC preparations to deploy rocket-borne sea mines into shipping lanes, prompting immediate Iranian threats of economic and military retaliation against Gulf traffic. World news | The Guardian · 30 Aug 2026US strikes Iranian launchers on Larak island amid strait of Hormuz tensions© Atta Kenare, AFP · 30 Aug 2026US forces strike Iranian launchers on Larak island in Strait of HormuzAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 31 Aug 2026Can Iran use rockets to mine the Strait of Hormuz, as US claims?
Regional Base Retaliation
Iranian armed forces launched retaliatory drone and missile strikes against U.S. military facilities in Jordan and targeted assets near Al Menhad airbase in the United Arab Emirates. Emirati air defenses intercepted incoming uncrewed aerial vehicles over territorial waters while Jordan confirmed air defense engagements against incoming threats. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 31 Aug 2026UAE intercepts drone after US and Iran exchange attacksBBC News · 30 Aug 2026US strikes Iranian launchers on Larak Island in first known attack in weeks
Economic Pressure and Munitions Bottlenecks
The U.S. Department of the Treasury expanded financial enforcement under Operation Economic Outcast to isolate third-country commercial banks processing Iranian assets. Concurrently, the Pentagon finalized seven-year defense manufacturing contracts to address severe interceptor missile inventory depletions resulting from six months of continuous theater air defense operations. Latest news from the Middle East, daily international news reports - France 24 · 31 Aug 2026US renews attack on Iran while threatening financial sanctions on Tehran alliesAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 31 Aug 2026Pentagon inks 7-year missile-production deal amid Iran war shortageAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 30 Aug 2026US vows to keep economic pressure on Iran as G20 finance talks begin
Assessment
The resumption of direct bilateral strikes between U.S. and Iranian forces dismantles the August operational pause, increasing tactical operational risk without producing a diplomatic resolution.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
4 more
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
- 2026-08-17
U.S. and Iran fail to reach broad agreement as diplomatic deadline expires.
The June Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired on August 17 without a broad peace agreement. Direct and indirect negotiations deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz maritime blockade enforcement and ceasefire terms.
- 2026-08-14
US Navy deploys USS George Washington to the Middle East
The U.S. Navy deployed the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to relieve the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln.
- 2026-08-13
United States enforces Hormuz blockade while Tehran rejects American control claims
US CENTCOM forces redirected dozens of commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as part of active blockade measures. Iranian officials disputed assertions of complete US control while commercial maritime transit through the chokepoint dropped to multi-month lows.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.