← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- Iranian forces launched missiles and drones targeting U.S. equipment at Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base in Kuwait. World news | The Guardian · 3 Sep 2026Iran targets US bases as Israel warns sanctions could drive Tehran to ‘desperate steps’© AFP via Sepah News screengrab · 3 Sep 2026Middle East live: Kuwait army says intercepting missile, drone attack from Iran
- An Iranian drone struck a residential building in Kuwait City. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 3 Sep 2026Iranian drone damages residential building in Kuwait City
- The Iranian Red Crescent Society requested an International Criminal Court investigation into the U.S. missile strike in Kuhestak. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 3 Sep 2026Iran Red Crescent urges ICC probe into deadly US strike on wedding party
- Iranian state media reported six additional military casualties from U.S. airstrikes in southern Iran, bringing the military toll to thirteen. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 3 Sep 2026Number of Iranian military personnel reported killed by US strikes this week rises to 13
- U.S. sanctions enforcement halted TOEFL and GRE exam testing centers across Iran. World | Deutsche Welle · 2 Sep 2026US sanctions halt TOEFL and GRE tests in Iran, disrupting study plans
Ahmad al-Jaber Base Strikes
Iranian military forces targeted U.S. installations at Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base in Kuwait using drones and ballistic missiles, damaging satellite communications systems, equipment depots, and aircraft hangars. Separate Iranian drone strikes hit residential infrastructure in Kuwait City, expanding the geographic scope of retaliatory strikes beyond military positions. World news | The Guardian · 3 Sep 2026Iran targets US bases as Israel warns sanctions could drive Tehran to ‘desperate steps’Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 3 Sep 2026Iranian drone damages residential building in Kuwait City
Kuhestak Civilian Strike Probe
The Iranian Red Crescent Society requested that the International Criminal Court open an investigation into a U.S. missile strike in Kuhestak that killed four civilians and injured sixty-eight at a wedding event. U.S. Central Command stated that American forces do not target civilians and announced an internal inquiry into the incident, which occurred 135 meters from a targeted communications tower. World news | The Guardian · 2 Sep 2026Iran accuses US of ‘war crime’ after missile blast kills four people at wedding© Screengrab 7sobh · 2 Sep 2026Videos and debris raise questions over alleged US strike on Iranian weddingIran International · 2 Sep 2026US military ‘never targets civilians, unlike the IRGC,’ CENTCOM says
U.S. Economic Blockade
Expanded U.S. sanctions and naval blockade measures restricted Iranian access to foreign exchange networks and international financial clearing channels. The Treasury Department suspended sanctions exemptions for educational services, halting TOEFL and GRE testing inside Iran and disrupting foreign university application deadlines for Iranian students. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 3 Sep 2026US pressure on Iran starting to tell, as sanctions and blockade biteWorld | Deutsche Welle · 2 Sep 2026US sanctions halt TOEFL and GRE tests in Iran, disrupting study plansWorld | Deutsche Welle · 3 Sep 2026Iran bets on shadow networks to evade US sanctions
Southern Lebanon Military Warning
Iranian officials conveyed a warning through Omani mediators threatening direct retaliatory strikes against U.S. forces if Israel launches an offensive on the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps personnel remain positioned alongside Hezbollah units at an underground facility on the ridge. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 3 Sep 2026Iran warns US against Israeli attack on south Lebanon ridge held by Hezbollah, sources say
Assessment
Sustained long-range strike exchanges against regional host bases and maritime choke points make near-term diplomatic de-escalation between the United States and Iran unlikely.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
4 more
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
- 2026-08-17
U.S. and Iran fail to reach broad agreement as diplomatic deadline expires.
The June Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired on August 17 without a broad peace agreement. Direct and indirect negotiations deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz maritime blockade enforcement and ceasefire terms.
- 2026-08-14
US Navy deploys USS George Washington to the Middle East
The U.S. Navy deployed the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to relieve the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln.
- 2026-08-13
United States enforces Hormuz blockade while Tehran rejects American control claims
US CENTCOM forces redirected dozens of commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as part of active blockade measures. Iranian officials disputed assertions of complete US control while commercial maritime transit through the chokepoint dropped to multi-month lows.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.