← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
▲ STALE FEED — last run failed validation for this theater; showing most recent verified entry.
- A strike on a commercial cargo vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz killed one crewmember. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 23 Sep 2026Cargo vessel attack in Hormuz kills 1 as world leaders gather at UN
- United States and Iranian delegations concluded indirect talks mediated by Qatar at the United Nations without reaching an agreement. Iran International · 24 Sep 2026Iran, US end UN talks still divided as Hormuz blockade continuesAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 23 Sep 2026First US-Iran talks in months raise hopes for progress despite no concessions
- An adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei threatened to expand Iranian military operations into the Indian Ocean if United States strikes resume. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 24 Sep 2026Iran threatens to expand war to Indian Ocean: What to know
- Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei warned that foreign airports enforcing United States secondary aviation sanctions could face retaliatory disruptions. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 23 Sep 2026Iran threatens countries enforcing US airline sanctions
- United States diplomats walked out of the United Nations General Assembly during an address by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Latest news from the Middle East, daily international news reports - France 24 · 23 Sep 2026Iran’s Pezeshkian tells UN his country is ‘victim’ of US ‘terrorism’Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 23 Sep 2026US envoy walks out on Pezeshkian UN speech slamming war on Iran
United Nations Diplomatic Deadlock
Indirect negotiations between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and United States envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner concluded in New York without bridging core disagreements over military operations and economic measures. Tehran conditioned any cessation of hostilities on an immediate termination of the United States naval blockade of Iranian ports and comprehensive sanctions relief, while Washington maintained maritime restrictions and demanded verified regional security guarantees. Bilateral diplomatic friction sharpened further during the General Assembly when the United States delegation walked out during an address by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian presenting evidence of civilian casualties from United States airstrikes. Iran International · 24 Sep 2026Iran, US end UN talks still divided as Hormuz blockade continuesWorld news | The Guardian · 23 Sep 2026Iran denies dropping preconditions amid ‘very productive’ three-hour UN talks in New YorkLatest news from the Middle East, daily international news reports - France 24 · 23 Sep 2026Iran’s Pezeshkian tells UN his country is ‘victim’ of US ‘terrorism’
Strait of Hormuz Shipping Attacks
Kinetic action against merchant traffic resumed in the Strait of Hormuz, where an attack on a cargo vessel resulted in one fatality amid Tehran's continued enforcement of transit restrictions. The United States military maintained its naval blockade aimed at severing commercial traffic to Iranian ports, leaving shipping lanes severely disrupted despite sustained Qatari mediation efforts. Iranian officials reiterated that transit through the waterway will remain restricted to authorized vessels until Washington terminates its blockade and ceases maritime interception operations. Iran International · 24 Sep 2026Iran, US end UN talks still divided as Hormuz blockade continuesAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 23 Sep 2026Cargo vessel attack in Hormuz kills 1 as world leaders gather at UNIran International · 23 Sep 2026Tehran sets out terms as US-Iran talks intensify in New York
Aviation Sanctions and Retaliatory Threats
Operational disputes widened beyond the Persian Gulf following United States Treasury secondary sanctions targeting twenty-seven Iranian commercial air carriers and foreign ground service providers. Iranian Expediency Council member Mohsen Rezaei warned of retaliatory disruption against foreign airports that enforce Washington's flight curbs, while an adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei threatened to expand naval warfare into the Indian Ocean if United States strikes resume. In Tehran, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi asserted that Iran's armed forces have organized asymmetric territorial defense networks to inflict severe casualties in the event of any foreign ground action. Tehran Times · 23 Sep 2026Leader’s advisor: Iran fully prepared for defense; US aggression will bring heavy casualtiesAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 24 Sep 2026Iran threatens to expand war to Indian Ocean: What to knowAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 23 Sep 2026US aviation sanctions disrupt Iran flights, push travellers overland
Assessment
The failure of high-level diplomatic contacts in New York, combined with renewed fatal attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and explicit Iranian threats to expand maritime strikes, leaves the theater primed for immediate military escalation if naval enforcement actions intensify.
- 2026-09-25
UAE suspends Iranian flights under US secondary aviation sanctions
The United Arab Emirates suspended all flights operated by Iranian airlines to enforce United States secondary aviation sanctions.
- 2026-09-23
Iranian foreign minister meets US special envoy at United Nations
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff for three hours of talks at the United Nations in New York.
- 2026-09-18
Russia and China veto UN resolution extending Iran sanctions monitoring
Russia and China vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution to extend independent monitoring of international sanctions on Iran.
4 more
- 2026-09-12
Drone strike from Iraq shuts down Saudi East-West pipeline
Unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown of the crude oil conduit.
- 2026-09-10
IAEA Board of Governors reports Iran to UN Security Council for non-compliance.
The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for non-proliferation non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The action follows over a year of denied IAEA inspector access to Iranian nuclear installations.
- 2026-09-09
U.S. forces destroy five Iranian oil tankers following IRGC missile attacks on warships
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC forces launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian forces retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-09-08
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 71.2/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 71.2/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.