← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- Iran submitted a seven-day proposal to the United States conditioning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on lifting the economic blockade. World news | The Guardian · 25 Sep 2026Trump faces tough choices as Iran dangles deal to reopen Hormuz before US midtermsAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 25 Sep 2026What’s in Iran’s seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 25 Sep 2026Iran pitches seven-day roadmap to end conflict with US
- The United Arab Emirates suspended all flights operated by Iranian airlines to enforce United States secondary aviation sanctions. Iran International · 24 Sep 2026UAE says it suspended Iranian airline flights over US sanctionsAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 24 Sep 2026UAE bars Iranian airlines as US sanctions squeeze Iran’s aviation sectorAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 24 Sep 2026New US sanctions shut down Iranian flights
- Iranian officials threatened retaliatory disruptions against regional civilian airports that enforce United States flight restrictions. Iran International · 25 Sep 2026Iran threatens regional air travel as US sanctions cut its flight linksAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 24 Sep 2026New US sanctions shut down Iranian flights
- The United States Senate rejected a War Powers Resolution aiming to restrict presidential military authority against Iran. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 24 Sep 2026US Senate rejects resolution curbing Trump's Iran war powersWorld news | The Guardian · 24 Sep 2026Senate Republicans block Democratic effort to end US war with Iran
- United States President Donald Trump warned Chinese President Xi Jinping against providing military or intelligence assistance to Iran. Iran International · 25 Sep 2026Trump warned Xi against intelligence and military aid to Iran, envoy saysAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 25 Sep 2026Trump says he talked to Xi about the Iran war
Hormuz Roadmap and Blockade Negotiations
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presented a seven-day roadmap through Qatari mediation in New York, offering to reopen maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz if Washington lifts its naval blockade, unfreezes Iranian assets, and halts regional combat operations. United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio downplayed the prospects of an imminent breakthrough, while Iranian officials asserted that Washington faces a brief window to accept the terms before facing potential retaliatory measures. World news | The Guardian · 25 Sep 2026Trump faces tough choices as Iran dangles deal to reopen Hormuz before US midtermsWorld news | The Guardian · 24 Sep 2026Ed Miliband meets Iran’s foreign minister as Tehran gives US ultimatum on strait of HormuzAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 25 Sep 2026What’s in Iran’s seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
Regional Aviation Sanctions Fallout
The United Arab Emirates, Oman, and regional Iraqi airports suspended commercial flights operated by Iranian carriers following the entry into force of United States secondary aviation sanctions. Iranian officials, including Expediency Council member Mohsen Rezaei, warned that Tehran would take retaliatory action to make participating regional hubs unusable if Iranian aircraft remain barred from international airspace. Iran International · 25 Sep 2026Iran threatens regional air travel as US sanctions cut its flight linksIran International · 24 Sep 2026UAE says it suspended Iranian airline flights over US sanctionsAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 24 Sep 2026UAE bars Iranian airlines as US sanctions squeeze Iran’s aviation sector
Legislative and Strategic Alignment
The United States Senate voted 50 to 49 to defeat a War Powers Resolution that would have mandated congressional authorization for continuing military operations against Iran. In Washington, President Donald Trump pressed Chinese President Xi Jinping to withhold intelligence and military hardware from Iran, with United States officials reporting assurances that Beijing would avoid assisting Tehran's war effort. Iran International · 25 Sep 2026Trump warned Xi against intelligence and military aid to Iran, envoy saysAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 25 Sep 2026Trump says he talked to Xi about the Iran warAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 24 Sep 2026US Senate rejects resolution curbing Trump's Iran war powers
Assessment
High-stakes maritime negotiations and expanding transport sanctions keep the theater near the threshold of renewed military exchanges.
- 2026-09-25
UAE suspends Iranian flights under US secondary aviation sanctions
The United Arab Emirates suspended all flights operated by Iranian airlines to enforce United States secondary aviation sanctions.
- 2026-09-23
Iranian foreign minister meets US special envoy at United Nations
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff for three hours of talks at the United Nations in New York.
- 2026-09-18
Russia and China veto UN resolution extending Iran sanctions monitoring
Russia and China vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution to extend independent monitoring of international sanctions on Iran.
4 more
- 2026-09-12
Drone strike from Iraq shuts down Saudi East-West pipeline
Unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown of the crude oil conduit.
- 2026-09-10
IAEA Board of Governors reports Iran to UN Security Council for non-compliance.
The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for non-proliferation non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The action follows over a year of denied IAEA inspector access to Iranian nuclear installations.
- 2026-09-09
U.S. forces destroy five Iranian oil tankers following IRGC missile attacks on warships
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC forces launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian forces retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-09-08
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 69.2/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 69.2/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.