← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- United Arab Emirates prosecutors formally classified the cockpit axe assault aboard an Israel-bound Flydubai airliner as an attempted terrorist attack. World news | The Guardian · 3 Oct 2026Flydubai co-pilot used crash axe to attack captain, says UAE© Ammar Awad, Reuters · 3 Oct 2026UAE investigators say Omani Flydubai co-pilot was planning 'terrorist' attackAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 3 Oct 2026Flydubai co-pilot attacked captain with crash axe in ‘terrorist act’: UAE
- The United States military deployed the USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group alongside amphibious forces toward the Middle East. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 2 Oct 2026New aircraft carrier, 10,000 US troops: Is the Iran war about to escalate?
- Militants killed five people including a Revolutionary Guard member in a roadside bombing near Zahedan in southeastern Iran. Iran International · 2 Oct 2026Five killed in roadside attack as violence spreads in southeast Iran
- British prosecutors charged two Iranian men with plotting an explosive terror attack against the Jewish community in Manchester. World news | The Guardian · 2 Oct 2026Two Iranian men charged over alleged terror plot targeting Manchester’s Jewish community
- Iran urged the Iraqi government to dismantle commercial aviation restrictions imposed under United States secondary sanctions. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 2 Oct 2026Iran urges Iraq to lift flight ban amid US sanctionsTehran Times · 2 Oct 2026Iran urges Iraq to resist US ‘economic terrorism’, resume air links
Aviation Security Disruptions
United Arab Emirates prosecutors officially designated the September 30 cockpit axe assault on Tel Aviv-bound Flydubai flight FZ1073 as an attempted terrorist attack. Investigators identified the suspect as Omani co-pilot Hamam al-Hammami, who was previously barred from flying in Oman over extremist ideological views. The incident prompted Israeli Transportation Minister Miri Regev to demand a halt to flights from the Emirates, straining bilateral Abraham Accords transport links. Concurrently, Tehran pressed Baghdad to remove commercial flight curbs enforced under United States secondary sanctions. World news | The Guardian · 3 Oct 2026Flydubai co-pilot used crash axe to attack captain, says UAE© Ammar Awad, Reuters · 3 Oct 2026UAE investigators say Omani Flydubai co-pilot was planning 'terrorist' attackAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 2 Oct 2026How FlyDubai attack exposes gaps in Israel-UAE security ties
Gulf Naval Deployments
The United States dispatched the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group alongside the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group carrying over 2,000 Marines. This deployment expands the American posture toward three carrier strike groups and two amphibious formations positioned near Iran by late November. Near the Strait of Hormuz, the USS George Washington maintained active combat readiness following recent naval exchanges. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any renewed aggression will prompt strikes surpassing its October 2024 ballistic missile operation. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 2 Oct 2026New aircraft carrier, 10,000 US troops: Is the Iran war about to escalate?AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 3 Oct 2026Aboard the USS George Washington, young sailors adjust to war with IranTehran Times · 2 Oct 2026Era of cost-free threats against Iran is over: IRGC
Counter-Terror and Intelligence Sabotage
British authorities charged Iranian nationals Rahman Salehi and Salam Ahmadyan with assembling an explosive device to attack the Jewish community in Manchester. Within Iran, a roadside bomb near Zahedan killed five people, including an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps member, in southeastern Sistan-Baluchestan province. Security concerns also deepened in Tehran following investigative disclosures describing Mossad penetration of Iranian banking and telecommunications infrastructure serving missile and nuclear sites. Iran International · 2 Oct 2026Five killed in roadside attack as violence spreads in southeast IranIran International · 2 Oct 2026A Mossad spy in Iran: From banking infiltration to nuclear and missile sabotageWorld news | The Guardian · 2 Oct 2026Two Iranian men charged over alleged terror plot targeting Manchester’s Jewish community
Diplomatic Sequencing Deadlock
Senior Iranian diplomat Saeed Khatibzadeh stated that Tehran requires verifiable American guarantees to halt hostilities permanently. Iranian domestic media described the negotiating path with Washington as precarious, with deep disagreements persisting over the sequencing of sanctions relief and security commitments. Tehran continues to promote a political resolution while insisting that United States economic sanctions obstruct durable diplomatic progress. Iran International · 1 Oct 2026Iranian press sees diplomacy alive but narrowing after US responseTehran Times · 2 Oct 2026Iran urges Iraq to resist US ‘economic terrorism’, resume air linksTehran Times · 2 Oct 2026Khatibzadeh: Iran seeks concrete US guarantees to end war
Assessment
Heavy American naval concentrations and widening asymmetric disruptions sustain critical interstate tension despite tentative diplomatic messaging between Washington and Tehran.
BOTTOM LINE // Naval posturing in the Gulf and cross-border security disruptions sustain critical tension despite tentative diplomatic messaging between Tehran and Washington.
Mick Ryan reports United States officials expect strikes against Iran to resume after the November 2026 midterm elections. Meanwhile, Defense Priorities indicates the United States may permanently close several Middle East bases, and the Atlantic Council projects the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will bottom out near 243 million barrels before April 2027 deliveries arrive. Atlantic Council · 2 Oct 2026The risks of the strategic petroleum reserve’s four-decade lowDefense Priorities · 2 Oct 2026After Iran war damage, U.S. may close some Middle East bases for goodMick Ryan (Futura Doctrina) · 26 Sep 2026Robotic Air Assaults as Vivaldi Rolls Forward, Russia Attacks Ukrainian Digital Infrastructure, Trump and Xi Meet. My Weekly Update.
- Next month
- Mick Ryan notes that United States officials expect military strikes on Iran could resume after the November 2026 midterms.
- Next 3 months
- Atlantic Council analysts project that replenishing oil deliveries will likely not reach the commercial market before April 2027.
WATCH November 2026 — Expected resumption of United States bombing operations against Iranian targets following midterm elections. · April 2027 — Earliest estimated delivery of replacement crude oil to the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
- 2026-10-03
Iran's Strait Authority acknowledged strikes on three UAE-linked tankers in Hormuz.
The Persian Gulf Strait Authority reported striking the tankers Al Ruwais, Sinbad, and Mersin Prosperity over alleged transit violations, amid concurrent reports of a burning supertanker.
- 2026-10-02
United States Treasury sanctioned Iran's automotive and rail industrial sectors
The United States Treasury designated domestic transport and manufacturing firms, including Iran Khodro and SAIPA, under Operation Economic Outcast to disrupt non-maritime trade corridors.
- 2026-09-30
United States military prepares to complete withdrawal of remaining forces from Iraq
American military personnel are scheduled to finalize their departure from Iraqi bases on Wednesday, ending a 12-year presence amid rising regional hostilities.
4 more
- 2026-09-29
US dispatches aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt to Middle East
The United States dispatched the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt to the Middle East, expanding its naval strike carrier presence in the regional conflict.
- 2026-09-29
Iran captured a U.S. REMUS 600 underwater drone in the Strait of Hormuz, asserting expanded surveillance capabilities.
The IRGC Navy seized the drone on September 28, marking a second such capture in weeks and challenging U.S. claims of control over the waterway. Tehran framed it as evidence of growing electronic-warfare dominance.
- 2026-09-25
UAE suspends Iranian flights under US secondary aviation sanctions
The United Arab Emirates suspended all flights operated by Iranian airlines to enforce United States secondary aviation sanctions.
- 2026-09-23
Iranian foreign minister meets US special envoy at United Nations
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff for three hours of talks at the United Nations in New York.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 78.1/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 78.1/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.