← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported two oil tankers struck by unidentified projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 2 Oct 2026Iran war live: Fighting intensifies in Yemen, hundreds killed or injured
- United States officials convened at Camp David as additional naval forces and troops deployed toward the Middle East. Iran International · 3 Oct 2026Security meeting, military buildup: US weighs next move on Iran?
- United Arab Emirates prosecutors officially classified the cockpit axe attack on a Tel Aviv flight as an attempted terrorist act. World news | The Guardian · 3 Oct 2026Flydubai co-pilot used crash axe to attack captain, says UAEAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 3 Oct 2026Flydubai co-pilot attacked captain with crash axe in ‘terrorist act’: UAEAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 3 Oct 2026UAE investigators say flydubai co-pilot was planning 'terrorist act'
- Iranian intelligence forces arrested 31 people in Kerman Province over alleged participation in foreign-backed sabotage networks. Tehran Times · 3 Oct 2026Iran dismantles four sabotage networks in Kerman Province: Intelligence Ministry
- Senior Iranian diplomat Saeed Khatibzadeh stated that Tehran requires verifiable United States guarantees to agree to a war-ending settlement. Tehran Times · 2 Oct 2026Khatibzadeh: Iran seeks concrete US guarantees to end war
Strait Maritime Attacks
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that unidentified projectiles struck two commercial oil tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian maritime authorities previously placed three United Arab Emirates-affiliated vessels, including the Al Ruwais, Sinbad, and Mersin Prosperity, on a non-compliance list for unauthorized transit. These recurring anti-ship attacks maintain severe operational hazards for international shipping lanes through the Persian Gulf. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 2 Oct 2026Iran war live: Fighting intensifies in Yemen, hundreds killed or injuredTehran Times · 2 Oct 2026PGSA: Three Emirati tankers hit in Hormuz were on non-compliance list
United States Force Posture
President Donald Trump convened an unannounced national security meeting at Camp David to evaluate military options regarding Iran. The United States military dispatched an additional aircraft carrier strike group and thousands of personnel to reinforce maritime positions alongside the USS George Washington near the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian military officials declared that their armed forces are prepared for any scenario and claimed American naval units have repositioned further from regional coastlines. Iran International · 3 Oct 2026Security meeting, military buildup: US weighs next move on Iran?Tehran Times · 3 Oct 2026Iran army says prepared to face any scenarioTehran Times · 3 Oct 2026US forces may retreat farther from Persian Gulf, IRGC deputy commander says
Aviation and Internal Security
Emirati prosecutors formally designated the cockpit axe assault aboard Tel Aviv-bound Flydubai flight FZ1073 as an attempted terrorist act by Omani co-pilot Hamam al-Hammami. In Iran, the Intelligence Ministry announced the arrest of 31 individuals in Sirjan, Kerman Province, accusing them of operating within four foreign-backed sabotage networks. British authorities also charged two Iranian nationals in London over an alleged bomb plot targeting Jewish targets in Manchester. World news | The Guardian · 3 Oct 2026Flydubai co-pilot used crash axe to attack captain, says UAEWorld news | The Guardian · 3 Oct 2026Two Iranian men identified Manchester synagogue as site for alleged bomb plot, court hearsAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 3 Oct 2026Flydubai co-pilot attacked captain with crash axe in ‘terrorist act’: UAE
Stalled Diplomatic Negotiations
United States officials acknowledged that mediated negotiations with Iran continue but face delays over unresolved nuclear enrichment issues. Senior Iranian diplomat Saeed Khatibzadeh stated that Tehran requires binding American guarantees before agreeing to end military hostilities. Russian representative Mikhail Ulyanov defended Iran's legal right to peaceful nuclear energy following American criticism of Tehran's 60 percent uranium enrichment levels. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 2 Oct 2026Iran war live: Fighting intensifies in Yemen, hundreds killed or injuredTehran Times · 3 Oct 2026Russia rebukes US, defends Iran’s ‘inalienable’ nuclear rightsTehran Times · 2 Oct 2026Khatibzadeh: Iran seeks concrete US guarantees to end war
Assessment
Expanding United States naval deployments and persistent maritime strikes in the Strait of Hormuz sustain critical conflict risks while diplomatic channels remain constrained by nuclear disagreements.
BOTTOM LINE // Maritime attacks in Hormuz and expanding United States military force posture sustain critical theater tension while indirect negotiations remain stalled over nuclear terms.
Defense Priorities assesses Tehran's strategy will continue using the Strait of Hormuz to pressure Washington into negotiating peace or ending the war unilaterally. Defense Priorities · 2 Oct 2026Reopening the Strait of Hormuz leaves US with mixed success
- 2026-10-04
Unannounced Camp David meeting weighs options as additional United States naval forces deploy.
President Donald Trump convened senior national security officials at Camp David while another aircraft carrier strike group and additional military personnel moved toward the Middle East.
- 2026-10-03
Iran's Strait Authority acknowledged strikes on three UAE-linked tankers in Hormuz.
The Persian Gulf Strait Authority reported striking the tankers Al Ruwais, Sinbad, and Mersin Prosperity over alleged transit violations, amid concurrent reports of a burning supertanker.
- 2026-10-02
United States Treasury sanctioned Iran's automotive and rail industrial sectors
The United States Treasury designated domestic transport and manufacturing firms, including Iran Khodro and SAIPA, under Operation Economic Outcast to disrupt non-maritime trade corridors.
4 more
- 2026-09-30
United States military prepares to complete withdrawal of remaining forces from Iraq
American military personnel are scheduled to finalize their departure from Iraqi bases on Wednesday, ending a 12-year presence amid rising regional hostilities.
- 2026-09-29
US dispatches aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt to Middle East
The United States dispatched the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt to the Middle East, expanding its naval strike carrier presence in the regional conflict.
- 2026-09-29
Iran captured a U.S. REMUS 600 underwater drone in the Strait of Hormuz, asserting expanded surveillance capabilities.
The IRGC Navy seized the drone on September 28, marking a second such capture in weeks and challenging U.S. claims of control over the waterway. Tehran framed it as evidence of growing electronic-warfare dominance.
- 2026-09-25
UAE suspends Iranian flights under US secondary aviation sanctions
The United Arab Emirates suspended all flights operated by Iranian airlines to enforce United States secondary aviation sanctions.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 72.1/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 72.1/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.